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SKIVT-L  June 2018, Week 3

SKIVT-L June 2018, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 17 Jun 2018 06:50:01 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (257 lines)

Expires:201806172000;;662305
FPUS51 KBTV 170724
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
322 AM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018


VTZ006-172000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
322 AM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

.TODAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Light and variable
winds, becoming southwest around 10 mph this afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the mid 60s. Southwest winds
around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in
the morning, then mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms in
the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the
afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. More
humid with highs in the mid 80s. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with
gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may
produce gusty winds. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows in the
upper 50s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Less humid with highs in the lower 70s.
North winds around 10 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 50. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. 

$$


Expires:201806171100;;669554
ASUS41 KBTV 171030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-171100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      56  50  80 SE3       30.05R                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      48  48 100 CALM      30.12R                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      47  47 100 CALM      30.08R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     49  47  93 MISG      30.08R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      48  46  91 CALM      30.11S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      52  50  93 CALM      30.07R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      54  50  86 SE8       30.09R                  
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    50  50 100 CALM      30.10R FOG              
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      56  53  91 SE3       30.04R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      51  48  92 CALM      30.08S                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      49  47  93 CALM      30.08S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     45 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     45 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     48 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     61 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     63  54  72 S7          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     61  54  77 S12         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     59  59 100 S3          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;663029
FXUS61 KBTV 170743
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
343 AM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered clouds will prevail across much of the area today 
with very warm temperatures rising well into the 80s, possibly 
approaching 90 in some locations. Dewpoints will increase this 
evening and overnight, making for a very muggy night. The hot 
and humid conditions will continue right into Monday, which may 
be even a few degrees hotter than today. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms will impact the North Country from late tonight 
through Monday evening as a cold front crosses the region. Any 
showers that develop will have the potential to produce heavy 
rainfall with some isolated gusty winds. Cooler and drier air 
will follow behind the cold front and persist through the middle
of the week. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 342 AM EDT Sunday...Main concern for Father's Day 
will be very warm temperatures, followed by heat, humidity and 
strong convection on Monday. 

The heat ridge to our west will continue to make slow eastward 
progress today. Some high debris clouds from upstream convection is 
spilling over the top of the ridge down into northern New England 
this morning, and this will be the norm for today, with partly to 
mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will warm quickly as the ridge axis 
draws near this afternoon; 925mb temps of 22-24C indicate we'll see 
highs in the mid to upper 80s areawide, with some locations nearing 
90. Thankfully, the worst of the humidity will remain poised to our 
west today, so heat indices will remain below 95 today. Still, it 
is going to be very warm, so please take the necessary precautions 
if you have any outdoor activities planned today. 

Things become more interesting tonight and especially Monday as the 
ridge builds across our area. Dewpoints will surge overnight, 
reaching into the mid and upper 60s by daybreak Monday. This will 
make for a muggy night, especially as some locations may not even 
get out of the 70s for lows. MCS currently ongoing across MN/WI/MI 
will traverse up around the ridge through the day Sunday. The 
remnants of this system look to traverse along or just north of the 
international border of VT/NY/ON/QC late tonight into early Monday 
morning. This may produce some briefly heavy rainfall and a few 
rumbles of thunder as it moves through the region. The focus really 
turns later Monday, especially the afternoon and evening hours, as 
moisture surges ahead of an approaching cold front. Convection will 
fire along/out ahead of the front. Although some scattered activity 
is possible during the morning hours, frontal timing has slowed 
somewhat as per the latest guidance, with the bulk of any convection 
holding off until mid to late afternoon. There is some question on 
how any morning showers and/or debris clouds will affect instability 
for the afternoon; note that SB CAPE values are quite different from 
model to model, though generally 1000+ J/kg for at least portions of 
the forecast area during the afternoon. Shear values around 40kt are 
expected, along with equilibrium levels of 40+ kft. PWATs will be 
impressive, ranging from 1.75 to 2.25 inches across the region. Mean 
integrated water vapor transport off the NAEFS will be approaching 
record values during this time frame, and with warm cloud depths of 
of 10-14 kft, expect any convection will be very efficient rain 
makes and capable of high rainfall rates. The front will be 
progressive, so anticipate that storms will be moving at a good 
clip. However, the aforementioned westerly moisture transport may 
support training or back-building storms. While widespread flooding 
is not anticipated, radar trends will have to be watched closely. In 
addition, a few wet microbursts will be possible due to 
precipitation loading; have kept the mention of heavy rainfall and 
gusty winds in the forecast accordingly. Note that SPC continues to 
include the entire North Country in a Marginal Risk in their Day 2 
outlook, while WPC's most recent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook 
has much of the area highlighted in a Slight Risk. 

The other concern for Monday is the very warm and humid conditions. 
We are still anticipating afternoon temperatures to approach or even 
exceed 90 in many locations, while dewpoints will be around 70. This 
will result in heat indices of 90+, with some locations in the 
southern Champlain and Connecticut Valleys exceeding 95. However, 
there is still some uncertainty in exactly where the warmest and 
most humid air will lie, due to aforementioned possible convective 
debris cloud cover. Also note that the 17/00z progs have backed off 
a bit on 925mb temps or have shifted the warmest axis just south of 
our area. Therefore, have opted to not issue any heat-related 
headlines at this time. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 342 AM EDT Sunday...Widespread showers and storms will be
ongoing early Monday evening as the surface cold front sinks 
into the forecast area. Will continue mention of locally heavy 
rainfall and gusty winds with stronger convective cores through 
the 9-11 pm hour or so before tempering things downward on both 
scale and coverage as the front pushes activity further 
southward. Scattered additional rainfall totals in excess of 1 
inch certainly possible in this early period. By later at night 
drier air on developing northerly flow behind the front will 
allow skies to trend clear to partly cloudy with lows by sunrise
Tuesday from the upper 50s/lower 60s north to the lower and mid
60s south.

A more pleasant day is then on tap for Tuesday as surface high 
pressure bridges east from the Great Lakes and southern Canada and 
the front clears well south of the region. Plenty of sunshine is 
expected under more tolerable humidity levels (dewpoints in the 50s) 
as high temperatures top out in the 70s. 

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 342 AM EDT Sunday...Mainly fair and seasonably mild to 
warm weather is then expected for most of the mid to late week 
time frame. Another weak surface trough will likely swing 
through the area later Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night 
with a push of slightly cooler/drier air and perhaps a brief 
window for a scattered shower across northern counties. However,
most areas should remain dry with the passage of this feature. 
Highs in the Wednesday to Saturday time frame will generally 
range from the mid 70s to lower 80s, though slightly cooler 
(70s) behind the trough passage on Thursday. Lows to range 
within a few degrees of climo late June norms from the upper 40s
into the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...VFR conditions will prevail through Sunday
evening. Some high clouds will remain across the region through
the period, but no precipitation is expected through 06z Mon. 
Nearly calm winds early this morning will turn to the south at
5-10 kt this afternoon, then lighten up again this evening. 

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Likely TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Likely TSRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Hastings

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