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SKIVT-L  July 2018, Week 3

SKIVT-L July 2018, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 20 Jul 2018 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (259 lines)

Expires:201807202000;;756347
FPUS51 KBTV 200723
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
320 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018


VTZ006-202000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
320 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.TODAY...Patchy dense fog this morning. Sunny. Highs in the upper
80s. Light and variable winds. 
.TONIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Southeast winds around
10 mph. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Light and variable
winds, becoming southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 50s. Southeast winds around 10 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 70s. Southeast winds
10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.MONDAY...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs
around 80. Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs
around 80. Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in
the upper 70s. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 60s. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 70s. 

$$


Expires:201807201100;;763931
ASUS41 KBTV 201030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-201100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      59  53  80 CALM      30.13R                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      51  51 100 CALM      30.21R                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      47  47 100 CALM      30.18R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     51  50  96 MISG      30.17R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      50  49  96 CALM      30.20S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      53  52  95 CALM      30.15R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      54  50  86 SE9       30.17S                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      50  50 100 CALM      30.19R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      57  55  91 CALM      30.13R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      51  51  99 SW7       30.18R                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      51  49  92 CALM      30.16S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     45 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     46 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     50 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     59 N/A N/A SE8         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     64  55  72 SE8         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     66  59  77 S13         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     63  57  82 SE8         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;756858
FXUS61 KBTV 200739
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
339 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and sunny day is expected across the region today as high
pressure prevails. Another nice day is anticipated on Saturday
before a large scale pattern change occurs for Sunday into next
week. This will feature daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms, along with much higher humidity values. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Friday...Surface and upper air analysis places
high pres across the ne conus this morning with clear skies and
light winds. Progged 850mb temps are 1 to 2 degrees warmer
today, with values 16 to 17c, which support highs well into the
80s with a few readings near 90 in the warmer valleys. Soundings
show deep dry layer with super adabatic low level lapse rates, 
helping to enhance boundary layer heating today. Similar to 
yesterday, developing southeast flow associated with gradient 
and lake breezy will keep western cpv slightly cooler and have 
tried to show this detail in grids. Warmest valleys will be 
eastern cpv and parts of the se downslope regions of the western
dacks/slv. Good mixing this aftn and warm temps will also drive
min relative humidity values in the 20 to 25% range, but winds 
generally 5 to 10 knots.

Tonight...low level moisture increases with slightly higher
dwpts from developing southeast flow at 10 to 15 knots. 
Thinking these higher dwpts with decoupling winds across the 
deeper valleys of central/eastern vt will help aid in the 
development of some patchy fog. Best chances will be ct river 
valley and parts of central vt. Otherwise, temps cool into the 
upper 40s slk/nek to lower 60s cpv. 

On Saturday...mid/upper level ridge begins to break down as
closed and negatively tilted 7/5h circulation moves into the
Ohio Valley. This will help to tighten low level gradient with
developing southeast winds at 15 to 25 knots anticipated by 00z
Sunday. In addition, these winds will help advect in slightly
cooler 925mb to 850mb temps across central/eastern vt and parts
of the cpv on Saturday, while warmest thermal profiles remain
over northern NY. With progged 850mb temps btwn 14-15c, expect
readings mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s, except a few upper
80s possible near potsdam to Malone. Localized southeast
downslope wind gust from rutland to east middlebury of 25 to 30
mph possible during the afternoon on Saturday. Have integrated
some higher resolution data to show this detail in grids.
Otherwise...some mid/upper level clouds develop aft 21z Saturday
with initial 5h vort, but dry conditions will prevail.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Friday...Although we anticipate shower chances
to increase for the latter half of the weekend, there's still 
uncertainty as to exactly how things will play out. Although the
models agree on the overall setup, with a large upper low 
digging into the Ohio River Valley and a coastal hybrid low 
developing off the Mid Atlantic and moving up along the coast, 
there is still considerable disagreement with timing and 
placement of said coastal low. The GFS is quite fast in bringing
the low northward, lifting into eastern PA/NY overnight 
Saturday night and into the Saint Lawrence Valley by noontime 
Sunday. Meanwhile, the NAM, Canadian, and 19/12z ECMWF are 
slower with the low's northward progress, placing it just off 
the coast/slightly inland by 12z Sunday and not reaching the 
international border until late Sunday afternoon/evening. Given 
the digging of the upper trough and dry air in place, feel the 
slower solutions are more likely. This would keep the bulk of 
warm air/moisture advection and associated precipitation south 
of our forecast area much of Saturday night, then quickly spread
it northward through the morning hours Sunday, tapering off 
late Sunday afternoon/evening as the deepest moisture lifts 
north into Canada. A strong southeast jet on the east side of 
the low will shift northward across our area as well on Sunday. 
This will focus the steadiest/heaviest shower activity on the 
favored upslope areas along the eastern slopes of the southern 
Greens/Adirondacks, while shadowing the Champlain Valley and 
portions of the Northeast Kingdom downstream of the White 
Mountains. Although a few rumbles of thunder can't be completely
ruled out, the stable marine airmass moving in on the southeast
flow will limit instability and convective potential. The 
aforementioned jet will make for a breezy day at higher 
elevations/favored valley locations, but it's hard to discern 
how much of this will be able to mix down to lower elevations 
given that it will coincide with the heaviest precipitation and 
the expected stable airmass. Increasing moisture Saturday night 
will keep overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s while 
keeping Sunday's temperatures in the 70s to around 80 on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Friday...It is shaping up to be a unsettled 
week with showers likely over at least a portion of the forecast
area each day. The upper trough will continue to dig to our 
west through the middle of the week, eventually giving way to 
another trough sliding down through the Prairie Provinces into 
the Great Lakes. This will keep the northeast CONUS under deep 
southwest flow through the period, with moisture being pumped up
between the trough to our west and the Bermuda high to our 
east. The deepest moisture plume will waver across New England 
through the week and the long range models are still having a 
hard time agreeing on its exact placement. But with PWATs to 
exceed 2 inches and warm cloud depths to be 10-14 kft across 
much of the region through the week, anticipate most will see at
least a period of heavy rain at some point. Rainfall totals are
hard to nail down at this point given the uncertainty with the 
moisture axis placement, but consensus shows a widespread 1-3 
inches of rainfall will be possible through the week. Given the 
recent spate of dry weather and the fact that this will fall 
over several days, don't anticipate any flooding issues, but 
trends will need to be watched as the event draws closer. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Aviation challenge will be fog/br
potential at slk/mpv this morning. Sfc analysis shows dwpts are
3 to 5 degrees higher tonight, with both mpv/slk expected to
reach their cross over temp in the next 1 to 2 hours. However,
we are another day removed from measurable precip, so bl 
moisture is limited. Expecting fog/br with ifr to develop at slk
by 07z and around 09z at mpv. These conditions should improve 
by 11z as mixing increases with sfc heating from strong July 
sun. Rest of our taf sites experience another 24 hours of vfr 
conditions with light trrn driven winds this morning, becoming 
south/southeast at 4 to 8 knots today.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Taber

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January 2010, Week 3
January 2010, Week 2
January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
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December 2008, Week 3
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October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
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June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
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May 2006, Week 1
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January 2006, Week 1
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November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
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October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
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August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
May 2005, Week 5
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May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
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October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 3
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September 2004, Week 1
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March 2004, Week 3
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February 2004, Week 3
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November 2002, Week 1
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October 2002, Week 2
October 2002, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
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March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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April 2001, Week 5
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March 2001, Week 5
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March 2000, Week 5
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March 2000, Week 1
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December 1999, Week 5
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December 1998, Week 5
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