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SKIVT-L  July 2018, Week 3

SKIVT-L July 2018, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 15 Jul 2018 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (258 lines)

Expires:201807152000;;500352
FPUS51 KBTV 150731
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
328 AM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018


VTZ006-152000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
328 AM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018

.TODAY...Patchy fog this morning. Partly sunny with a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Light and
variable winds, becoming northwest around 10 mph this afternoon.
Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Light and variable
winds. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Light and variable winds,
becoming south around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain
20 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some thunderstorms
may produce heavy rainfall. Humid with lows in the upper 60s. South
winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Showers with thunderstorms likely. Some thunderstorms may
produce heavy rainfall. Not as warm. Humid with highs in the upper
70s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Some
thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Lows in the mid 50s.
Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 60. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 80s. 

$$


Expires:201807151100;;507768
ASUS41 KBTV 151030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-151100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      68  65  90 E3        29.97R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    66  66 100 CALM      30.04R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    62  62 100 CALM      30.00R FOG              
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     65  64  97 MISG      29.98R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    64  62  92 CALM      30.03R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      67  64  90 CALM      29.98R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    67  65  93 S3        30.00R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    68  68 100 CALM      30.00R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      70  67  91 S5        29.95R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    65  64  97 SE8       29.99S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    67  65  93 CALM      30.01R FOG              
ISLAND POND*     N/A     64 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     63 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     66 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     61 N/A N/A W23         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     72  68  88 SW8         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     70  68  94 S8          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     70  72 100 SE2         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;500971
FXUS61 KBTV 150748
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
348 AM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level trough will move through the region this morning 
with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through the 
early afternoon hours. Ridging aloft will replace the upper level 
trough which will usher in warmer air today and Monday with Monday 
being the warmest day of the upcoming week. Temperatures on Monday 
will warm into the mid 80's to lower 90's with some places seeing 
heat index values around 95 degrees. A strong and slow moving cold 
front will move through the region on Monday night through Tuesday 
which will lead to moderate to heavy rainfall. There could be some 
embedded thunderstorms on Tuesday that could produce some locally 
heavy rainfall. Clearing skies will be observed Wednesday and 
Thursday behind the front with seasonably warm temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 337 AM EDT Sunday...Satellite imagery this morning depicts
areas of low stratus and fog trapped in the valleys of eastern 
Vermont and portions of the northern Adirondacks. A surface 
based inversion set up overnight and the increasing moisture 
ended up pooling in the valleys. This low stratus and fog will 
quickly burn off and lift after sunrise to yield a more sunny 
than cloudy day. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible late this morning into the early afternoon as a 
diffuse upper level trough pushed through the North Country. 
Shortwave ridging will replace the departing trough this 
afternoon and evening which will help suppress any additional 
shower activity. While the overall ridge is largely 
unimpressive, it will help advect much warmer air back into the 
North Country today with even warmer weather expected on Monday.
Temperatures this afternoon will peak into the low to upper 
80's with highs on Monday reaching the mid 80's to mid 90's. The
increasing temperatures on Monday coupled with dewpoints in the
mid 60s will lead to heat index values near or above 95 
degrees. There is still some uncertainty with the dewpoints on 
Monday but a heat advisory may be needed for the Champlain and 
Saint Lawrence Valleys on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 337 AM EDT Sunday...Deep southwesterly flow will increase from
the Mid-Atlantic through New England Monday night ahead of an 
approaching cold front and upstream trough aloft. This will 
result in increasing moisture/warm air advection over the region
Tuesday night, and an uncomfortable, muggy night. Lows will 
only reach the low 70s in the Champlain Valley and upper 60s 
elsewhere. As heights fall over the area, some rain showers will
develop during the nighttime hours. 

The main weather-maker during the short term, however, will be the 
cold front that will push through the forecast area Tuesday morning 
through evening.  With the soupy air mass in place, good dynamics 
aloft courtesy of the digging trough and favorably place jet, and 
favorable timing of the frontal passage, still on track for a day of 
much needed widespread rainfall and some thunderstorms. Models 
continue to indicate that the front will move through northern New 
York in the late morning/early afternoon hours, then move through 
Vermont in the afternoon through evening hours. Forecast 
soundings show an environment ripe for heavy rainfall Tuesday, 
with ample moisture (PWATs near 2"), a deep warm cloud layer, 
and tall and skinny CAPE profiles (500 to 1500 J/kg). Thus have 
continued the mention of locally heavy rainfall within 
thunderstorms in the forecast. 

Tuesday night, the front will exit to the east and drier air will 
quickly be ushered in from the northwest. Skies should clear fairly 
rapidly behind the frontal passage, so will likely get fog 
development overnight given all the recent rainfall and 
resulting saturation of the soils. 

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 337 AM EDT Sunday...High pressure will build in Wednesday and
remain in control of the North Country through Friday, keeping 
the weather quiet for the second part of the work week. 
Wednesday will be the coolest day of the week after the cold 
front passage the previous day, with highs forecast to be in the
70s and dewpoints returning to much more comfortable values 
(<55 degrees). Temperatures will warm through the end of the 
work week, reaching the mid to upper 80s by Friday. With ridging
building aloft, not expecting any precipitation through Friday.
The next chance for precipitation comes Saturday as low 
pressure moves over the MidWest, steering warm and unstable air 
towards New England. There is some potential during this time 
frame for a coastal low originating off the Carolina Coast to be
steered northward to New England, bringing some more focused 
rainfall, but this is still very far out and confidence is low 
during this time frame. Have gone with 30 to 50 percent PoPs 
during the weekend to account for any disturbances that are 
steered into our area, but the details of any systems have yet 
to be ironed out.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Satellite imagery shows pockets of low
stratus and fog setting up over the northern Adirondacks and
eastern Vermont early this morning. These pockets of low
stratus should only thicken over the next few hours as moisture
continues to increase across the north country with KMPV
trending from MVFR to IFR and staying there through about 12Z-
13Z before finally mixing out. Similar trends will be seen at
KSLK as they have already shown there is some fog in the
vicinity. The best time for fog will be 8Z to 11Z so have added
some IFR conditions for that time period. By 15Z Sunday, all
sites should trend back to VFR with light winds expected through
the forecast period. A few showers will be possible along the
mountains so KPBG and KMPV could see a stray shower or two
Sunday but should remain VFR.

Observations have now been missing from KPBG for a couple of
days due to an FAA comms issue. We are able to dial into the
site for TAF issuance but are unable to monitor for real-time 
observations as conditions change. Therefore, we continue to 
carry AMD NOT SKED in the KPBG TAF. 

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
Observations from KPBG continue to be unavailable due to an FAA
comms problem. Time of return to service is unknown at this 
time.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...RSD
LONG TERM...RSD
AVIATION...Clay
EQUIPMENT...Hastings

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July 2009, Week 5
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June 2009, Week 5
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June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
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May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
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March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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June 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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March 2008, Week 1
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February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
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October 2007, Week 5
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
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