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SKIVT-L  July 2018, Week 3

SKIVT-L July 2018, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 18 Jul 2018 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (226 lines)

Expires:201807182000;;661215
FPUS51 KBTV 181027
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
624 AM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018


VTZ006-182000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
624 AM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.TODAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Northwest winds 10 to
15 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Clear. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the upper 40s.
Northwest winds around 10 mph until midnight, becoming light and
variable. 
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable winds.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Light and variable
winds. 
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Light and variable winds. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the upper 70s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the lower 80s.
Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the lower 80s.
Chance of rain 60 percent. 

$$


Expires:201807181100;;661393
ASUS41 KBTV 181030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-181100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    64  50  60 N8        29.95R                  
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    57  53  86 NW5       29.97R                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      57  49  74 N7        29.95R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     56  54  93 MISG      29.90R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      54  47  79 W9        29.95R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    60  55  81 NW3       29.94R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      59  57  93 CALM      29.94R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      60  60 100 CALM      29.91R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      58  53  81 CALM      29.96R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      55  46  71 W5        29.95R                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      59  57  93 CALM      29.93R FOG              
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     45 N/A N/A N24G36      N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     64  54  68 MISG        N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     64  50  59 N18         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     64  50  59 NW14        N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;661103
FXUS61 KBTV 181023
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
623 AM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building into the North Country will produce drier
and cooler temperatures today with northwest winds at 5 to 15
mph. A chilly night is anticipated tonight with lows in the mid
40s to mid 50s. Temperatures return to above normal values by
the end of the week, along with increasing chances for rain
showers by Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 617 AM EDT Wednesday...Minor update to increase clouds
across the cpv and parts of ne VT thru 12z, as early morning 
sat showing some leftover pockets of clouds. Large scale
subsidence per water vapor trends, expect clouds to quickly
dissipate over the next 1 to 2 hours. Also, adjusted temps to 
match crnt obs, which as slk down to 43f. Otherwise, increased 
wind gusts slightly across the cpv and parts of central/eastern 
vt, as latest rap soundings show good mixing, supporting 
localized gusts 15 to 20 mph possible. 

Water vapor shows mid/upper level trof axis directly overhead 
this morning with building 1020mb high pres located over 
northern MI. The combination of large scale subsidence and 
building high pres will result in mostly sunny skies today. 
Expecting a few fair wx cumulus clouds to develop as leftover 
boundary layer moisture on upslope northwest flow is lifted by 
the higher trrn as convective temps are reached. Also, a few 
lingering mid level clouds are possible with cyclonic flow aloft
over the nek this morning. Otherwise, progged 850mb temps btwn 
8-10c support highs upper 60s to mid/upper 70s across our cwa 
today with northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. A few higher gusts btwn 
18-20 mph possible. 

Tonight...High pres directly overhead will produce clear skies
and light winds, allowing temps to quickly drop after sunset.
Sharp low level thermal inversion will develop with coolest
readings in the deeper/protected valleys of the dacks/nek. Have
trended toward the ece guidance for slk, which has 36f, which
looks reasonable. Thinking lows mainly mid 40s to mid 50s,
except upper 30s nek/slk. Fog/br development is tricky with some
areas probably reaching cross over values, but area will be 24
hours removed from measurable precip. Thinking best chc will be
eastern/central vt, especially lower ct river valley near VSF. 
Maybe some patchy fog near Lake Placid/SLK toward sunrise on 
Thursday. 

Thursday...dry weather continues with sfc high pres and building
heights aloft. Progged 925mb to 850mb temps warm 2 to 3 degrees
from Weds values and support highs mid 70s to lower 80s most
locations under mostly sunny skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will remain draped 
across the Northeast CONUS during the short term. Therefore, 
anticipate clear skies, light winds, and other than perhaps some
patchy river valley fog early Friday morning, fair weather. 
Thursday night lows will mainly be in the 50s, though the usual 
cold spots in the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks will drop 
into the 40s. Friday's 925mb temperatures will be several 
degrees warmer than Thursday, so, likewise, daytime highs will 
also be warmer, generally in lower to mid 80s across the higher 
elevations, while the St Lawrence and Champlain Valleys will top
out in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Wednesday...We will finish up the week with 
another hot and dry day, then we'll see an unsettled pattern 
settle in for much of next week. High pressure will exit to our 
east on Saturday, making way for an upper trough to dig into the
Great Lakes/Midwest states. The first closed low early in the 
week will become more of an open wave after spinning over the 
Midwest states for 24-48 hours, but another upper digging upper 
trough will soon approach from Ontario/Quebec on Tuesday. These 
features combined with the Bermuda high will result in deep 
southwest flow across the North Country. Warm and moist air will
stream northward in this southwest flow, resulting in 
widespread shower chances Sunday right into the middle of the 
week. Precipitation will likely be focused during the daylight 
hours as we destabilize with heating, then wane through the 
overnight once the sun sets. Model progs indicate enough 
instability will exist for a chance of thunderstorms through 
much of the period. Temperatures will be near to above normal, 
particularly at night as the abundant moisture keeps lows well 
into the 60s, approaching 70 in some spots.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...VFR conditions prevail at all taf sites
today with building 1020mb high pres. Look for northwest winds 5
to 10 knots with localized gusts at btv/mpv btwn 15 and 18 knots
from 15z to 22z. These winds will become light and variable by
sunset with clear skies prevailing. Thinking some localized
patchy fog/br possible btwn 07-11z Thursday morning at slk/mpv.
Have mention ifr conditions with vis at 1sm and clouds scattered
at 100 feet. Still some uncertainty on fog development with dry
air in place and if cross over values can be reached tonight,
given the dry airmass. 

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Taber

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June 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
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March 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
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October 2004, Week 1
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July 2004, Week 5
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July 2004, Week 3
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January 2004, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
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February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
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