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SKIVT-L  July 2018, Week 3

SKIVT-L July 2018, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 17 Jul 2018 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (259 lines)

Expires:201807172000;;604031
FPUS51 KBTV 170736
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
333 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018


VTZ006-172000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
333 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.TODAY...Showers, thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may produce
gusty winds and heavy rainfall this afternoon. Highs around 80.
South winds around 10 mph, becoming southwest this afternoon. Chance
of rain 90 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms
until midnight, then mostly clear after midnight. Some thunderstorms
may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall until midnight. Lows in
the mid 50s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain
50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Northwest winds
around 10 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Patchy dense fog. Lows in the upper 40s.
Northwest winds around 10 mph. 
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable winds.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the upper 70s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows around 60. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper
70s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 

$$


Expires:201807171100;;611126
ASUS41 KBTV 171030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-171100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  77  71  82 S6        29.78S                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      72  70  93 S7        29.87S                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      72  68  87 N5        29.81S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     67  64  90 MISG      29.80F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   MOCLDY    70  67  92 SE6       29.85S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    RAIN      74  69  85 S5        29.82S                  
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    72  68  87 CALM      29.86R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    72  71  97 CALM      29.85S                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    72  69  91 CALM      29.78S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    69  69  98 CALM      29.83S                  
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    72  70  93 N5        29.85S FOG              
ISLAND POND*     N/A     73 N/A N/A S3          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     63 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     73 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     64 N/A N/A SW22        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     75  72  88 SW2G12      N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     75  70  83 SW12        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     77  72  83 S9          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;604234
FXUS61 KBTV 170742
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
342 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moving across the North Country today will produce 
showers and thunderstorms. Some storms will contain localized gusty 
winds, heavy down pours, and frequent lightning. Much cooler and 
drier air arrives tonight on northwest winds and building high 
pressure. This trend of cooler temperatures and lower humidity 
values will persist for midweek, before some warmer temperatures 
arrive by late this week. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Tuesday...Water vapor shows digging mid/upper 
level trof across the central Great Lakes with deep moisture 
and embedded short waves in the southwest flow over the NE 
Conus. Forecast challenge today will be evolution/timing of 
convection ahead of cold front and potential impacts. Thinking 
the overall threat for severe is minimal with a few stronger 
storms possible over central/southern VT this aftn. Once again, 
system is coming thru in parts, which combined with plenty of 
mid/upper level clouds will limit instability and impacts across
our cwa today. Water vapor shows best forcing associated with 
pre-frontal 5h vort moving across our cwa thru 14z this 
morning...with elevated CAPE values btwn 800-1200 j/kg. 
Also...sfc temp still 80 degrees as of 3 AM this morning. 

Meanwhile... subsidence/dry slot behind initial moisture surge 
will develop from west to east across our fa, which will cause 
some breaks to occur in the overcast and allow sfc temps to warm
back into the upper 70s to mid 80s. This will create pockets of
sfc based cape values of 1200 to 1500 j/kg mainly along and 
east of the cpv btwn 18z-21z, with developing 0 to 6 km shear 
values of 30 to 40 knots. The shear is mainly driven off 
approaching 70 to 90 knot right rear quadrant of an upper level 
jet with digging mid/upper level trof. However, best short wave 
forcing is lagging across the northern Great Lakes while highest
pw axis is quickly shifting into southern New England. So 
bottom line expecting a few stronger pulse type storms to 
develop over our central/southern cwa, which will become better 
organized with greater severe weather potential just south of 
our cwa. 

Have continued to mention likely to cat pops with gusty
winds/heavy rainfall in grids, but not overly concerned about 
either element given synoptic and mesoscale setup. Some of the 
stronger convective elements will be capable of torrential 
downpours, but anticipated storm motions of 25 to 30 mph and 
recent dry spell will limit impact. Expect qpf generally in the 
0.40 to 0.75 range with isolated higher amounts possible in 
areas that received several rounds of convection. Temps are 
tricky with such a warm start to the day, but rain cooling 
values this morning, but additional breaks develop this aftn, 
allowing temps to warm back into the upper 70s to mid 80s. 
Thinking dry slot will produce enough breaks in the overcast 
prior to fropa to cause a quick bump in midday temps, before caa
develops by sunset. 

Tonight, any lingering showers/storms will exit our cwa by 00z as 
axis of deeper 850 to 500mb moisture shifts south. Moderate low 
level caa develops on northwest winds of 5 to 15 knots...as 
mid/upper level trof deepens. The forecast challenge will be if any 
fog/br can develop, especially with anticipated recent rainfall. 
Thinking the combination of gradient winds/mixing and potent s/w 
energy will produce enough lift for some clouds to redevelop 
overnight and limit fog development. Temps will range from the upper 
40s to lower 60s overnight.  

Mid/upper level trof axis will be overhead on Weds along with 
building 1020mb high pres. Expect cooler temps with some fair wx 
cumulus clouds to develop, especially over the trrn during peak 
heating. Temps mainly in the 70s with light northwest winds and much 
lower rh values. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Tuesday...Fair weather continues 
through the middle of the week as high pressure slowly crests over 
the North Country. Expecting mostly clear skies and light winds 
Wednesday night, and this combined with any lingering low-level 
moisture from Tuesday's rains may allow for patchy fog to develop 
late Wednesday night into early Thursday, mainly in sheltered river 
valleys. Lows will be in the lower to mid 50s in the larger valleys, 
while the mountain areas will drop down into the 40s, with a few 
upper 30s possible in the Adirondacks. Thursday will see lots of 
sunshine once any fog burns off with highs in the mid 70s to lower 
80s. 

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Tuesday...High pressure will continue to 
dominate the region through Saturday, keeping the weather dry 
into the weekend. Temperatures will remain warmer than normal 
with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid 50s to 
mid 60s. The next chance of rain begins to threaten on Sunday as
an upper low pinwheels across the Great Lakes. This will place 
New England under deep south flow, which will usher moisture 
back into the region. This low will meander over the Great 
Lakes/Ohio River Valley as it gradually becomes an open wave 
through early next week, keeping the threat of showers and 
thunderstorms around into Tuesday. Temperatures will remain near
or slightly above normal for late July. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Challenging next 6 to 18 hours in 
aviation as timing of changeable conditions associated with 
convection is the main concern. Radar shows scattered activity 
across northern NY taf sites early this morning with some brief 
periods of mvfr vis expected in the heavier convective activity.
Have utilized tempo for slk/mss to highlight this potential 
btwn 06-09z. Also, noted rap/nam soundings show lvl moisture 
quickly developing aft 09z at slk, so anticipating a period of 
ifr cigs btwn 10-14z. Otherwise, mainly vfr conditions prevail 
at pbg/btv/rut/mpv thru 09z, before threat for showers/storms 
increase with mvfr cigs/vis possible. Thunderstorm activity will
shift east of mss/slk by 15z and 18z for pbz/btv and around 21z
for rut/mpv. Some areas of enhanced turbulence and low level 
wind shear is possible in and near thunderstorm activity today, 
along with gusty outflow of 25 to 30 knots. Winds shift to the 
northwest by late aftn with vfr prevailing into the evening 
hours. 

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
SLK ASOS has a comms issue with no obs being transmitted since 
2:51 PM on Monday. ET's will examine the problem today.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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