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SKIVT-L  July 2018, Week 4

SKIVT-L July 2018, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 23 Jul 2018 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (270 lines)

Expires:201807232000;;921656
FPUS51 KBTV 231020
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
617 AM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018


VTZ006-232000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
617 AM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight chance
of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers with a slight chance
of thunderstorms until midnight, then a slight chance of showers
after midnight. Humid with lows in the upper 60s. South winds 10 to
15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a slight chance of showers. A slight
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid with highs in the
mid 80s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of
rain 20 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Humid with lows in the upper 60s.
South winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Humid
with highs around 80. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Lows in
the mid 60s. Chance of rain 80 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the
upper 70s. Chance of rain 80 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs around 80. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 70s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the upper 70s. 

$$


Expires:201807231100;;921877
ASUS41 KBTV 231030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-231100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    72  68  87 S3        30.10R                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      70  70 100 VRB3      30.20R                  
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    69  69 100 CALM      30.16R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     67  67 100 MISG      30.16R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   DRIZZLE   68  67  96 SE3       30.21R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    MOCLDY    73  68  83 SE6       30.12R                  
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    73  69  87 SE10      30.14R                  
SPRINGFIELD    LGT RAIN  71  71 100 CALM      30.17R                  
HIGHGATE*      MOCLDY    73  69  87 SE7       30.10R                  
NEWPORT*       MOCLDY    68  68  99 S6        30.17R                  
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    70  68  93 NW3       30.12R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     68 N/A N/A NE2         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     64 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     68 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     63 N/A N/A SE22        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     73  70  88 S7          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     73  70  88 SE12        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     72  73 100 SE5         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;914106
FXUS61 KBTV 230732
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
332 AM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers will exist across the North
Country today. A few afternoon thunderstorms will be possible,
as well. Conditions will remain humid today and Tuesday with
above normal temperatures. Showers will become more focused
across northern New York on Tuesday, but they will once again
become more widespread Wednesday and Thursday. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 328 AM EDT Monday...Showery weather will prevail today 
and Tuesday as moisture continues to stream into the region as 
we remain squeezed between the Bermuda high to our east and a 
deep trough to our west. The amplifying pattern between these 
two will allow flow to turn more to the south through the day, 
keeping moisture streaming into New England. The deepest 
moisture plume will remain poised just to our east this morning,
but it will begin to slowly pivot westward later this afternoon
as the aforementioned high builds westward. After the showers 
currently on radar early this morning, expect we may see a bit 
of a break before showers become more numerous this afternoon, 
particularly across central and southern Vermont into the 
Adirondacks, nearest the deeper moisture. Elsewhere, showers 
will be more isolated in nature, especially this morning. Some 
breaks in the clouds are possible from the Champlain Valley 
westward today, and this will allow some instability to develop 
in these areas during the afternoon. Have therefore continued 
with a chance of thunderstorms in this afternoon's forecast. 
South winds will be a bit breezy today once we see some daytime 
mixing, with gusts up to 25 mph. It will be a warm day, 
especially where sun makes it through the clouds; highs in these
areas will range from the lower 80s in the Adirondacks to the 
mid and upper 80s in the Champlain and St Lawrence Valleys. East
of the Greens, temperatures will be a little cooler owing to 
thicker cloud cover, mainly in the 70s. 

The plume of moisture will continue its westward push tonight 
into Tuesday as the high continues to build west. However, 
anticipate shower coverage will wane through the 
evening/overnight hours with a lack of daytime heating. 
Precipitation will redevelop on Tuesday, but by this time the 
deepest moisture axis will lie along the Saint Lawrence Valley. 
PWATs will exceed 2 inches there, then quickly drop to 1.50 
inches or less from the Champlain Valley eastward. Therefore, 
the most widespread precipitation will mainly be from the 
Adirondacks westward. However, with daytime heating and sunshine
breaking through the cloud cover, scattered showers may develop
across the Greens tomorrow afternoon. After a muggy night 
tonight, Tuesday will be another warm, though breezy day. Highs 
will approach 90 in the Champlain Valley, and lower to mid 80s 
will be common across the remainder of the region. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 328 AM EDT Monday...Deep-layer ridge anchored southeast 
of Nova Scotia should maintain weakly anticyclonic low-mid-level
flow regime across nrn NY and VT Tuesday night. With the 
exception of St. Lawrence county, this feature should keep most 
of the region dry with just a slight chance of rain showers 
across VT, 30-50% chance across the nrn Adirondacks, and PoPs 
50-70% across St. Lawrence county. Could see 0.1-0.2" rainfall 
amts across the far western part of the forecast area during 
Tuesday night. Southerly low-level flow will keep conditions 
warm and muggy. Looking for overnight lows mainly 65-70F. 
However, potential for better low-level mixing in the Champlain 
Valley should keep lows 70-74F in the immediate BTV area. 

On Wednesday, we'll begin to see 700-500mb shortwave trough 
translate ewd from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley in response 
to strong upper-level jet (80-90kt at 250mb) moving in from the 
upper Mississippi Valley. This will result in increasingly 
cyclonic mid- level flow across nrn NY and VT, along with 
increasing QG-forcing. Should see increasing showers from west- 
east during the day Wednesday. With PW values approaching 2" in 
the 00Z GFS, and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, could see some locally
heavy downpours and some embedded convective elements with 
thunderstorms possible. Tall/skinny character of the CAPE 
profile and modest lapse rates should preclude any severe 
threat, however. Moderately southerly gradient flow and 
channeling in the Champlain Valley will also bring potential 
wind gusts of 25-30 mph. A Lake Wind Advisory may eventually be 
needed for Wednesday. 

In terms of rainfall amts generally looking at 0.25-0.50" 
during the daylight hrs Wednesday, with locally higher amts 
possible with any embedded thunderstorm activity. Given rather 
dry antecedent soil conditions, at this point it doesn't appear 
that flooding will be a significant threat. However, given slow 
movement of the mid-level trough and rich moisture (PW values 
near 2"), we will continue to monitor. 

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 328 AM EDT Monday...Appears high PW axis shifts east of 
the region during Wednesday night as leading 700-500mb trough 
axis translates across the region. Should see best potential for
continued rain showers during the first half of Wednesday 
night, followed by continued low overcast and possible areas of 
fog. Low temperatures Wednesday night generally in the mid-upper
60s with continued muggy conditions. 

Overall synoptic pattern transitions to becoming more 
progressive Thu-Sun with several embedded shortwave troughs 
within broad longwave trough setting up across Ontario and the 
Great Lakes region. Appears we'll have mainly diurnally driven 
potential for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms Friday 
through Sunday with swly mid-level flow in place. While duration
of rainfall will generally be brief with any shower activity, 
indicated 30-50% PoPs each day, with PoPs highest during the 
mid-late afternoon hours. Temperatures will be near to slightly 
above seasonal levels, with daytime highs in the low-mid 80s in 
valley locations Thu-Sun. Lows will primarily be in the mid 50s 
to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR/MVFR conditions expected through the
TAF period. Plenty of low level moisture will linger across the
area, especially east of the Green Mountains. Generally, 
ceilings should remain VFR, except for KMPV which will see MVFR 
ceilings through the period. With this deeper moisture in place,
scattered showers are possible through the overnight hours and 
into Monday, with visibilities remaining VFR. East to southeast
winds 5-10 kt will continue overnight; however, after 15z 
Monday winds will increase out of the south between 10 to 20 
knots.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Hastings

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October 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 5
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January 2002, Week 5
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