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SKIVT-L  July 2018, Week 4

SKIVT-L July 2018, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 24 Jul 2018 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (275 lines)

Expires:201807242000;;963149
FPUS51 KBTV 240707
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
304 AM EDT Tue Jul 24 2018


VTZ006-242000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
304 AM EDT Tue Jul 24 2018

.TODAY...Partly sunny with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.TONIGHT...A slight chance of thunderstorms until midnight. Partly
cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Humid with lows in the upper
60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Showers likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms in
the morning, then showers with a chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Humid
with highs in the upper 70s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up
to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Locally
heavy rainfall possible. Humid with lows in the upper 60s. South
winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs in the
upper 70s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in
the lower 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs
around 80. Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Lows
around 60. Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 70s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the upper 70s. 

$$


Expires:201807241100;;971413
ASUS41 KBTV 241030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-241100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      74  64  71 SE6       30.17R                  
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    70  69  97 S8        30.29R                  
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    72  67  84 VRB6      30.23S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     70  68  93 MISG      30.24S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    70  66  88 SE5       30.29S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    MOCLDY    75  64  69 S9        30.20S                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      71  66  84 SE9       30.24S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  71 100 CALM      30.27R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      75  65  71 SE10      30.15S                  
NEWPORT*       MOCLDY    69  67  93 SE6       30.25S                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      73  65  75 SE13      30.22S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     72 N/A N/A S5          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     64 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     70 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     61 N/A N/A SE29G41     N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     73  68  83 S8          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     73  68  83 S21         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     73  70  88 S16         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;964447
FXUS61 KBTV 240738
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
338 AM EDT Tue Jul 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong area of high pressure anchored southeast of Nova Scotia
will maintain a tropical southerly flow with very warm and muggy
conditions for today and tonight. Most of the rain shower 
activity today and tonight will be confined to the western 
Adirondacks into the St. Lawrence River Valley. The mid-level 
trough across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will eventually 
shift eastward on Wednesday, bringing more widespread rain 
showers and isolated thunderstorms to northern New York and
Vermont for Wednesday into Wednesday night. With rich moisture
in place, locally heavy downpours are possible. Rainfall 
amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches generally expected from Wednesday
into Thursday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 149 AM EDT Tuesday...Deep-layer ridge anchored south of
Nova Scotia into eastern New England continues to maintain a
very moist/tropical airstream from the Carolinas northward into
New York and western New England. Early this morning, 2-m
dewpoints are generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and the
00Z ALB sounding indicated observed PW value of 2.09". At 06Z,
main axis of scattered showers extended from ern PA nnwwd across
central NY into St. Lawrence County. Further east, just
scattered low-level clouds in place. The overall trend will be
for 850-500mb height rises across New England over the next 24
hrs, as anticyclone builds slightly wwd. This means most of the
shower activity will be confined to our far western forecast
area...mainly St. Lawrence and portions of Franklin NY counties.
Further east, just isold showers possible today into tonight.
Indicated 0.2-0.3" rainfall across wrn St. Lawrence county, but
generally zero QPF from the Champlain Valley ewd. Accordingly,
PoPs only around 20% across VT and the Champlain Valley of NY,
and 30-50% across the Adirondacks, and 50-70% across St.
Lawrence County.

Will see low-level p-gradient increase today between the two
systems. Current indications support south winds sustained 15-25
mph in the Champlain Valley, with gusts to 30 mph with local 
channeling effects. 

With a warm start this morning (pre-dawn readings mainly upr 
60s to mid 70s), temperatures will reach the low-mid 80s for
afternoon highs. Along with 2-m dewpoints holding 68-71F, it
will remain very muggy today and tonight. Lows tonight generally
low-mid 70s. 

Will begin to see a change on Wednesday as westerly 80-90kt 
250mb jet moves into the wrn Great Lakes region, and finally 
kicks 700-500mb trough across the Ohio Valley slowly ewd. Will 
see a gradual transition to height falls and a more cyclonic 
mid-level flow regime across the North Country. Thus, expecting 
QG forcing and 2" PW axis to shift into nrn NY Wednesday 
morning, and eventually across VT Wednesday afternoon. 
Tall/skinny CAPE profiles generally <1000 J/kg don't support 
severe storms, but anticipate a few embedded tstms with 
potential for heavy rainfall at times. PoPs generally 70-90% for
numerous tropical showers, and rainfall amts generally expected
0.25-0.4" across central/ern VT, and generally 0.4"-0.8" from 
the Champlain Valley wwd across nrn NY. Given slow movement of 
mid-level trough, additional rainfall will persist into 
Wednesday night. 

Increased cloudiness and showers will keep temperatures 
generally in the upr 70s to lower 80s for highs on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 337 AM EDT Tuesday...The middle to end of the week 
continues to look rather unsettled with a series of cold fronts 
traversing the region providing good chances for widespread 
rainfall and potential thunderstorms. Timing of the first 
frontal passage looks to be Wednesday night through mid- day 
Thursday with a PWATs around 2" along and ahead of the boundary 
supporting the idea of some localized heavy rainfall. Guidance 
continues to point towards a sharp precipitation gradient from 
west to east with modeled basin average QPF ranging from very 
little in the St. Lawrence Valley to 0.25-0.75" across the 
northern Adirondacks and Champlain Valley, and up towards 1" 
across eastern Vermont. Certainly not a drought buster, but a 
good widespread rain which is much needed.

Thursday night turns dry behind the departing front with a 
brief reprieve from the deep humidity as PWATs drop off below 1"
and dewpoints lower into the mid 50s to lower 60s. 
Unfortunately come Friday morning, PWATs surge up again to 
around 1.5" ahead of the next cold front which will be on the 
BTV CWA doorstep around 12Z. Based on the timing of this front, 
we could see sufficient instability during the mid-day to early 
afternoon hours to support some thunderstorm development, 
especially from the Adirondacks eastward. This coupled with 
decent jet dynamics could support some stronger storms, so this 
potential will have to be watched through the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 337 AM EDT Tuesday...Looking out to the weekend, drier 
and more comfortable conditions are expected as the 
aforementioned cold front shifts east of the region and is 
replaced by surface high pressure. An upper trough will continue
to dominate aloft so clear skies aren't in the cards, but we 
should see a decent amount of sunshine both days of the weekend 
with temperatures right around seasonal normals - highs in the 
mid 70s to low 80s, and lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. 
Dewpoints drop off into the 50s as well, which will be a 
welcomed break from the current oppressive humidity we have now.
Monday could be a transition day with another round of wet and 
muggy weather possible next week as the upper trough digs over 
the Great Lakes and the Bermuda high shifts slightly westward 
allowing the tropical Gulf moisture to return.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR, but will see occasional 
MVFR ceilings with stratus across ern VT. Included a tempo group
for BKN017 at MPV thru 10Z. Otherwise, will see SCT-BKN080-120 
thru the period from the Champlain Valley ewd, and generally 
BKN-OVC050-080 across nrn NY closer to band of tropical moisture.
Most of the shower activity today and tonight will be confined 
to northern NY. Indicated VCSH at SLK with prevailing showers at
times at MSS. South winds will increase during the daylight hrs
today...expecting gusts approaching 25kt at BTV 14-02Z. 

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCXX Radar is having calibration issues and this is causing
problems with dual-pol derived precipitation. The dual-pol 
derived rainfall amounts appear to be much greater than what is 
actually being observed. The legacy rainfall products appear to 
be more reliable based on observations, but may be a bit 
underdone. Technicians are planning maintenance for this issue 
today (Tuesday), and KCXX may be down briefly.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Banacos
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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July 2009, Week 5
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May 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 1
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June 2008, Week 5
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January 2008, Week 1
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October 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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