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SKIVT-L  July 2018, Week 4

SKIVT-L July 2018, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 25 Jul 2018 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (280 lines)

Expires:201807252000;;012571
FPUS51 KBTV 250706
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
303 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018


VTZ006-252000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
303 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

.TODAY...Partly sunny this morning, then becoming cloudy. A slight
chance of thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers this morning,
then showers this afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible this
afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. South winds 15 to 20 mph with
gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Locally
heavy rainfall possible. Humid with lows in the upper 60s. South
winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Cloudy with showers likely in the morning, then partly
sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Highs around 80. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Light and
variable winds. 
.FRIDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the lower 80s.
Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows around 60.
Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 70s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper
70s. Chance of rain 30 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 50s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 70s. 

$$


Expires:201807251100;;020893
ASUS41 KBTV 251030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-251100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      77  65  66 S6        30.00F                  
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    71  68  90 S12       30.11F                  
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    73  67  81 S10G22    30.05F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     73  66  78 MISG      30.07F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    71  64  77 SE9       30.11S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      75  66  72 S7G18     30.02F                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    73  66  78 SE18      30.06F                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    72  70  93 CALM      30.10F                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      76  66  71 S12G18    29.98S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      70  66  86 SE16      30.06F                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      75  66  73 S10G18    30.06F                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     72 N/A N/A S6          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     68 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     72 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     63 N/A N/A SE28G39     N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     77  66  69 S21G30      N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     75  68  78 S24         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     75  68  78 S13         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;013322
FXUS61 KBTV 250729
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
329 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers will become more numerous today as a trough of low
pressure across the eastern Great Lakes region shifts eastward 
and interacts with tropical moisture in place across the North 
Country. Locally heavy downpours are expected, especially this
afternoon into tonight. Rainfall amounts of three-quarters of 
an inch up to an inch and a half are expected today through 
early Thursday morning in most sections. A few embedded 
thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon into tonight. 
Drier conditions with developing partly sunny skies are expected
Thursday afternoon, with highs reaching the low to mid 80s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 324 AM EDT Wednesday...Very moist meridional flow regime 
continues in place from the Mid- Atlantic states nwd across PA 
into wrn NY early this morning. The RAP-based SPC mesoanalysis 
indicates impressive axis of 2-2.1" precipitable water values 
within existing corridor of showers that remains quasi-
stationary across w-central NY nwd into St. Lawrence at 07Z. 
There is an embedded shortwave trough across e-central PA 
tracking nwd...and this feature should enhance hourly rainfall 
rates bringing heavier rain showers across the Adirondacks and 
St. Lawrence Valley late this morning, with PoPs increasing to 
80-100%. As 80-90kt 250mb jet shifts across the Great Lakes, 
will begin to see downstream shortwave begin to shift ewd with 
steady height falls and developing cyclonic mid-level flow 
across the North Country this aftn. Will see rain showers and 
embedded convective elements shift ewd with potential for 
numerous showers and embedded heavy downpours in tropical air 
mass across VT this afternoon into tonight...with PoPs 80-100%. 
Tall/skinny CAPE profiles in model soundings suggest a few 
embedded thunderstorms/lighting strikes possible, but not 
expecting any severe weather with deep-layer moist adiabatic 
profiles. Dry antecedent conditions should preclude any flooding
concerns, though ponding of poor drainage areas is possible 
with overall rainfall amts expected 0.75"-1.5". May see a few 
isold 2" rainfall amts given impressive PW values. This includes
across the Adirondack high peaks region, where S-SW 35-45kt 
flow at 925-850mb may result in some orographic enhancement of 
precipitation. 

While still quite muggy today (2-m dewpoints 65-71F), temperatures 
won't be as hot as yesterday owing to increasing clouds and coverage 
of shower activity. Today's highs in the upper 70s to 80-81F in 
a few VT valley spots, with overnight lows mainly in the mid 60s. 

On Thursday, will see lingering showers across ern VT during the 
morning hrs, but overall trend will be for partly to mostly sunny 
and drier conditions by afternoon from west-east. High
temperatures will reach the low-mid 80s, with dewpoints 
slightly lower than recent days (60-65F range).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 324 AM EDT Wednesday...Highlight for the period continues
to point towards the convective potential on Friday as a 
secondary cold front swings through the region. Should be a 
fairly mild and muggy night ahead of the boundary Thursday night
with lows widespread in the 60s and little dewpoint spread. 
Come 12Z Friday morning the front looks to be on the BTV CWA 
doorstep with showers developing across northern New York during
the mid-morning hours. Increasing clouds and precipitation 
should keep instability at a minimum here, but eastward the 
potential for some stronger storms to develop still looks 
plausible with daytime surface heating aiding in SBCAPE's 
pushing over 1000 J/kg. This, combined with PWAT's surging back 
up over 1.5", decent upper jet dynamics and modest low level 
shear certainly supports the idea of scattered to numerous 
showers and thunderstorms developing through the afternoon from 
the Adirondacks eastward with the potential for a few strong to 
locally severe storms.

Any convective activity wanes Friday night as the front shifts east 
of the forecast area and surface instability weakens with the loss 
of insolational heating. A few lingering showers are possible across 
eastern Vermont through midnight, but thereafter drier conditions 
are expected for the remainder of the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 324 AM EDT Wednesday...Drier and more comfortable 
conditions are still expected for the upcoming weekend as 
surface high pressure builds into the region. An upper level 
trough lifting northeast through southern Canada could provide 
enough energy to spark a few isolated showers Saturday, but for 
most areas dry conditions are expected through the weekend under
partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will be right around seasonal
normals - highs in the mid 70s to low 80s, and lows in the mid 
50s to low 60s with comfortable humidity expected as well. 
Unfortunately this pattern change will be only brief as the 
upper trough to our west and Bermuda high to our southeast both 
look to become reestablished, with the return of a deep tropical
southwest flow across the majority of the East Coast.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...VFR conditions generally in place across
the North Country early this morning. May see intermittent
periods of MVFR stratus affecting MPV through 12Z this morning,
and have covered this possibility with a TEMPO during the pre-
dawn period. A few passing rain showers are expected at MSS/SLK
thru daybreak, and brief periods of MVFR conditions are
possible. Thereafter, trough of low pressure across wrn NY/PA 
will gradually shift ewd during the daylight hours today. Will
see a gradual increase in shower activity at the TAF sites from
west to east across the North Country during the daylight hrs.
Periods of moderate to heavy showers are expected, especially
this afternoon into this evening, with intervals of MVFR/IFR
conditions expected. There is a slight chance of an embedded
thunderstorm, but overall not enough to include mention in the
TAFs at this point. Winds will continue generally south
10-15kts. May see southerly gusts 20-22th at MPV/RUT/BTV prior
to arrival of rainfall this morning. 

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for Lake Champlain today, 
with continued south winds of 20 to 25 kts. As rain showers move in 
from the west and become more numerous this afternoon, should see 
winds decrease slightly into the 15 to 25 kt range, and should see 
the potential for 25 kt winds cease around sunset. In the meantime, 
significant wave heights will average 2-4 feet, highest across the 
north end of the broad lake. These conditions may prove hazardous 
for small craft and inexperienced mariners. Caution is advised.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCXX radar continues to have calibration issues and this is
causing problems with dual-pol derived precipitation. The dual-
pol derived rainfall amounts appear to be much greater than 
what is actually being observed. The legacy rainfall products 
appear to be more reliable based on observations. A technician
visited the site today and has ordered replacement parts with 
the expectation that a more thorough diagnosis will be performed
later this week, weather permitting.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Banacos
MARINE...JMG
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV

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April 2009, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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October 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 5
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March 2005, Week 4
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March 2002, Week 3
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February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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