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SKIVT-L  July 2018, Week 5

SKIVT-L July 2018, Week 5

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 30 Jul 2018 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (235 lines)

Expires:201807302000;;270532
FPUS51 KBTV 300715
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
313 AM EDT Mon Jul 30 2018


VTZ006-302000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
313 AM EDT Mon Jul 30 2018

.TODAY...Patchy dense fog this morning. Partly sunny. Highs in the
lower 80s. Light and variable winds. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Light and variable
winds. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Light and variable winds.
Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Light and
variable winds. 
.WEDNESDAY...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Humid
with highs in the upper 70s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of
rain 60 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Lows in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs around 80. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid
80s. Chance of rain 30 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent. 

$$


Expires:201807301100;;277933
ASUS41 KBTV 301030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-301100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      59  55  87 E3        30.13R                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      52  52 100 CALM      30.20R                  
MORRISVILLE    FOG       51  51 100 CALM      30.16R VSB 3/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     54  54 100 MISG      30.14S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       50  50  98 CALM      30.18R VSB<1/4          
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      60  55  85 CALM      30.16R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      57  55  93 SE8       30.18R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       56  56 100 CALM      30.17R VSB 1/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      59  57  95 S5        30.11S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      53  53  99 CALM      30.15S                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      53  51  93 CALM      30.18R FOG              
ISLAND POND*     N/A     48 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     46 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     54 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     54 N/A N/A W25         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A    N/A N/A N/A S9G16       N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     66  61  82 SE12        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     63  63 100 S6          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;270585
FXUS61 KBTV 300720
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
320 AM EDT Mon Jul 30 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure over the region this morning will provide dry 
and seasonal weather to the North Country through tonight. Warm and 
more humid conditions return Tuesday with chances for showers and 
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through the remainder of the work 
week, especially Wednesday and Wednesday night, as high pressure off 
the Atlantic coast maintains a warm moist southwest flow into our 
area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 319 AM EDT Monday...A welcomed break from active and 
humid weather is the forecast for today as surface high pressure
centered just south of the area will provide fair and dry 
conditions through tonight. After early morning burns off high 
clouds will increase from southwest to northeast and some fair 
weather cumulus will develop this afternoon, but no 
precipitation is expected. 925mb temps rise slightly from 
yesterday to around +20C supporting highs mainly in the upper 
70s to low 80s, with comfortable humidity as dewpoints will fall
into the low/mid 50s this afternoon.

Clouds continue to increase going into tonight associated with the 
return of moist southwest flow between an approaching upper trough 
and the Bermuda high parked off the Atlantic coast. Thinking clouds 
will inhibit any fog development despite light boundary layer flow 
with lows a few degrees milder than the previous night in the 50s to 
low 60s. For Tuesday, have backed off PoPs quite a bit from the 
previous forecast based on model trends. Mid-level heights are still 
rising across most of the area through the day, and latest trends 
are for the arrival of higher PWATs to be delayed until Tuesday 
night or Wednesday. In addition, little instability is present along 
with limited forcing, all pointing to less chances for 
precipitation. That said, across northwest New York closer to the 
approaching upper trough I could see a few showers developing so 
will maintain some low chance PoPs there, but from the Champlain 
Valley eastward think it will be a dry day. 925mb temps don't change 
much from the previous day so highs will once again be in the upper 
70s to low 80s, but humidity will begin to increase as dewpoints 
climb into the low/mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 307 AM EDT Monday...Mainly a persistence forecast through
Tuesday night and Wednesday with one notable adjustment, namely
to lower pops downward quite a bit Tuesday night. Latest model 
trends suggest that despite increasingly moist southerly return 
flow, the overall lack of dynamic forcing should allow any 
scattered afternoon convection on Tuesday to generally wane 
overnight with loss of insolation. As such I've carried only 
token 20/30 pops overnight, focused mainly across the south and 
west in closer proximity to deeper moisture plume. Low 
temperatures to range through the 60s to locally near 70 at 
KBTV. By Wednesday that plume rides northeast into our region. 
This, along with noticeable, albeit weak diffluence aloft in 
advance of a dampening shortwave trough to our west should be 
sufficient to drive scattered to numerous showers and storms 
across the region. PWATS in the 1.7 to 2.0 inch range should 
ensure locally heavy downpours in more robust cells. At least 
some modestly robust instability and deep layer shear will also 
be present so a few cells may also trend on the stronger side. 
Time will tell. It will definitely feel more summery as 
dewpoints climb well into the 60s to around 70 and daytime highs
top out in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 307 AM EDT Monday...The main theme for late week into 
next weekend is for a continuation of warmth and humidity across
the region as deep layer western Atlantic ridging holds semi- 
permanent offshore. This will keep a steady flow of moist south 
to southwesterly flow across our region with near daily chances 
of showers and a few storms, not uncommon for early August. This
is not to say that it will be a washout on any of these days, 
just to say the threat is certainly non-zero with highest 
coverage in the afternoon to early evening during and just after
peak heating. Given the expected scattered nature of the 
activity afternoon PoPs will generally range from 30-40% on 
Thursday/Friday, then slightly lower (20-30%) by next weekend as
deeper heat and some evidence of building subsidence aloft 
drift into the area. As discussed above, it will certainly feel 
quite warm and humid with daily highs in the 79-86 range 
Thu/Fri, then well into the 80s to locally near 90 in warmest 
spots by the weekend. Lows to range mainly through the 60s to 
lower 70s. With these trends, it seems a safe bet to assume the 
A/Cs will be running steadily through much of the Thu-Sun time 
frame.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will largely persist
through the next 24 hours with locally dense fog developing
across eastern Vermont valleys tonight. Only terminal to be
affected by fog will be KMPV where LIFR is expected from
08-12Z. After 12Z, we'll see more fair weather cumulus clouds 
develop through the day and continue into tomorrow night. Light
and variable winds overnight will trend south/southwesterly  
<10 kts during the afternoon and back to nearly calm after 00Z
Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Lahiff

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March 2009, Week 3
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