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SKIVT-L  July 2018, Week 5

SKIVT-L July 2018, Week 5

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 31 Jul 2018 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (246 lines)

Expires:201807312000;;327496
FPUS51 KBTV 311025
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
621 AM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018


VTZ006-312000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
621 AM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers this morning, then
partly sunny with a slight chance of showers this afternoon. Highs
in the upper 70s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain
40 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Light and variable
winds. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a slight chance of showers in the
morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s.
Light and variable winds, becoming south around 10 mph in the
afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Humid with lows in the upper 60s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance
of rain 70 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds around
10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in
the mid 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 70s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 60s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the upper 80s. 

$$


Expires:201807311100;;327554
ASUS41 KBTV 311030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-311100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    67  64  90 NE5       30.12S                  
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    60  60 100 CALM      30.19S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     60  60 100 MISG      30.14R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    58  57  97 CALM      30.18S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    64  63  96 CALM      30.14S                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    62  60  93 SE5       30.16R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      61  61 100 CALM      30.16R                  
HIGHGATE*      LGT RAIN  66  64  93 SE3       30.11S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      59  58  96 S3        30.15S                  
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    62  60  93 CALM      30.16R FOG              
ISLAND POND*     N/A     55 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     57 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     61 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     57 N/A N/A NW10        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     70  64  83 S9G15       N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     70  64  83 S9          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     68  68 100 S3          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;323082
FXUS61 KBTV 310825
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
425 AM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Strengthening high pressure across the western Atlantic will 
keep warmth across the region well into next week along with 
increasing humidity levels. The best threat of showers will 
occur across northern portions of New York and Vermont this 
morning, then across the entire area on Wednesday and again by 
Friday. By next weekend generally dry weather returns, though 
with increasing confidence of very warm to hot temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 333 AM EDT Tuesday...A mainly cloudy morning is unfolding
across the area as mid level moisture returns on strengthening 
southwesterly flow aloft. Indeed, a fairly impressive 100 knot 
jet near 250 mb continues to build into the northeast this 
morning. This along with a weaker surge near 850 mb are 
bolstering modest isentropic lift from 850-700 mb beneath which 
scattered shower activity has blossomed across northern NY into 
far western VT. Expect this activity to continue across these 
areas and into portions of northern VT this morning before 
waning in coverage by this afternoon as advective processes 
weaken somewhat. Given a general lack of large scale 
instability, precipitation will fall mainly as showers, though 
by this afternoon a few/isolated storms may pop as clouds thin 
and buoyancy peaks. Areas across the northern SLV and across far
southern VT counties to largely stay rain-free today. Given the
abundance of morning clouds, I did temper high temperatures 
back just a bit, going about 2 degrees below blended guidance. 
This supports readings from the mid 70s to lower 80s. 

Isolated late afternoon showers then wane for a brief period this 
evening under partly cloudy skies before a stronger surge of warm 
advection pushes northeast later tonight when precipitation chances 
will rise once again. The latest model trends keep the best 
dynamical forcing across our northern NY counties and points 
immediately west and highest chance PoPs will be offered in these 
areas accordingly with VT counties holding mainly dry overnight. Low 
temperatures to range through the 60s with a few upper 50s far 
northeast, and a few spot 70F readings in the Champlain Valley.

By Wednesday a deeper moisture surge spreads across the area under 
persistent southwesterly flow aloft. This factor along with weakly 
diffluent flow ahead of a dampening longwave trough across the Ohio 
Valley/Great Lakes and some modest instability should be sufficient 
for better coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms. Deep layer 
shear will also be fairly robust, though with rather paltry lapse 
rates aloft convective buoyancy will be modest at best. SPC 
maintains a marginal severe risk across our area, which seems 
reasonable at this point with most storms remaining below severe 
limits. Highs to run seasonably warm from the upper 70s to mid
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 420 AM EDT Tuesday...Showers will continue into the 
evening hours Wednesday as a deep moisture plum continues to 
push north into the region. High pressure from the Bermuda high 
and an upper level trough will squeeze higher PWATs over the 
region and lead to some potential of some higher precipitation
efficiency from any showers. Anticipated totals range from
between 0.1" to as much as 0.5" of rainfall.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to linger into Thursday
and Thursday night as the positively tilted trough drifts east.
I'd anticipate most of the showers being scattered and not 
necessarily a washout. The flow at this time will remain out of 
the southwest and will continue to just pump warmer air into the
North Country. 925mb temps support temps in the mid to upper 
80s with a spot 90 not really out of the question. 

A weak cold front finally drags through the Thursday night into
Friday and should bring another round of scattered showers and 
thunderstorms. There's some potential for another surge of 
rainfall across southern Vermont but I'd like to see some more 
consistency in that axis of heavy precip.

Humidity values will creep up during daytime hours as dew 
points move into the upper 60s. Unfortunately that will push 
temps up into the somewhat uncomfortable levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 420 AM EDT Tuesday...High pressure dominates into the 
weekend as chances for showers dwindle over the area. With the 
high pressure building and warm air advection continuing expect 
the Champlain Valley to make another run at a heat wave with 
temps warming into the upper 80s to low 90s. The challenge will 
be if and how much precip actually falls. The GFS is convecting
quite a bit and leads to more showers but I think thats 
slightly over done. So I've maintained the idea of between 
10-20% chances for showers. There's some indication that the 
ridge will break down coming out of the weekend which may lead 
to some showers early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR expected through the forecast
period as area of BKN/OVC mid level cigs in the 060-120 AGL
range affect the area. Within this area of clouds scattered 
showers to affect KSLK/KPBG and possibly KBTV in the 06-14Z time
frame. Brief reductions to visibility into the MVFR range 
possible with any showers with confidence on occurrence highest 
at KSLK during this period. Elsewhere mainly dry wx expected. 
After 18Z skies trend SCT VFR with perhaps a lingering pop-up 
shower across northern NY. Winds light and variable, trending 
light southerly in the 4-8 kt range after 12Z before becoming 
light once again by 00Z Wed.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...JMG

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