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August 2018, Week 1

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Fri, 3 Aug 2018 06:50:02 -0400
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Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
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Expires:201808032000;;472263
FPUS51 KBTV 030743
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
340 AM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018


VTZ006-032000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
340 AM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.TODAY...Cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms. A slight
chance of showers this morning, then a chance of showers this
afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable winds. Chance
of rain 50 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows in the
lower 60s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Cloudy with showers in the morning, then partly sunny
with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in
the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable winds.
Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. Light and variable
winds. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Light and variable
winds. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. 
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 70s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows around 60. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. 

$$


Expires:201808031100;;479034
ASUS41 KBTV 031030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI AUG 03 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-031100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    73  67  81 S6        30.10R                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      66  66 100 CALM      30.17R                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      65  65 100 CALM      30.14R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     67  66  97 MISG      30.11S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      65  64  97 CALM      30.17R FOG              
MIDDLEBURY*    RAIN      71  67  88 CALM      30.14R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      68  65  90 SE6       30.15R                  
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    66  66 100 CALM      30.16R FOG              
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      69  68  98 S3        30.09S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      65  64  98 CALM      30.14R                  
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    66  65  96 CALM      30.16R FOG              
ISLAND POND*     N/A     64 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     63 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     66 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     61 N/A N/A W12         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     73  70  88 S9          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     73  68  83 SW8         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     72  72 100 S5          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;472330
FXUS61 KBTV 030745
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
345 AM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong Bermuda high pressure will maintain warm and humid 
weather across the area through the middle of next week. Rounds 
of showers and a few thunderstorms will affect a good portion of
the area today into tonight, especially from the Adirondacks 
east and south. Some of the rainfall could be quite heavy with 
an enhanced risk of flash flooding across southern Vermont 
tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...Another warm and humid morning across
the forecast area as of 300 am as a well established, deep 
subtropical moisture plume remains in place from the 
southeastern states north through the mid-Atlantic and 
northeast. Light, spotty shower activity has been rippling 
through this band, though most spots have remained dry overnight
with a lack of large-scale forcing. In terms of the forecast 
today into tonight, no big changes in thinking have occurred 
after perusal of morning model data. A pronounced cyclonic PV 
anomaly off the Carolina capes, depicted quite well in GOES-R WV
and RAP mid-level vorticity analysis, will lift north along the
western side of of Atlantic high pressure and interact with 
with the moisture plume as PWATS hold in the 1.75 to 2.1 inch 
range. This will foster better low to mid level moisture 
convergence and as such will drive a broad blossoming of shower 
and thunderstorm activity along the eastern side of the band 
later this afternoon into tonight. The best boundary layer 
instability will set up across far southern NY state into 
central and southern New England where higher thunder 
probabilities exist. Models, both global and hi-res maintain 
that bands of moderate to occasionally heavy rain and embedded 
thunder will affect areas from northeast PA into the Hudson 
Valley and portions of southern VT/nw MA/sw NH by later this 
afternoon into tonight. As such our current Flash Flood Watch 
will remain in effect for Rutland and Windsor Counties 
accordingly (see hydro section below). Further north periods of 
light to occasionally moderate rain will be possible from the 
Adirondacks into northern VT with perhaps a stray rumble of 
thunder. The SLV will generally remain rain-free outside perhaps
a passing light shower. After thorough analysis used a blend of
GEM/National Model Blend/WRF ARW/WRF NMM/GFS 20km/BTV 4km WRF 
data through the 24 hour period which provides the most 
consistent signal. Threw out the 00Z NAM 12km QPF owing to a 
seemingly erroneous heavy/narrow band of rainfall much further 
north this evening. High temperatures today will range from the 
mid 70s to lower 80s under ample cloud cover, with overnight 
lows tonight mainly in the 60s.

By Saturday morning another subtle ripple/shortwave rides northeast 
through the region keeping the threat of steady, occasionally heavy 
showers focused across our southern and eastern counties before 
activity pushes east by afternoon. There will be some modest 
boundary layer instability by the afternoon across central and 
northern counties where partial afternoon sunshine is expected. So a 
few additional pop-up showers or a stray storm or two will be 
possible in these areas accordingly. Highs to range from the mid to 
upper 70s in eastern counties where clouds will prevail through late 
afternoon, and in the upper 70s to mid 80s further west with 
aforementioned afternoon partial sun.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 331 AM EDT Friday...The mid level trough that is expected
to produce heavy rainfall on Friday night will be pushing off 
to the east as a an upper level ridge starts to build in 
Saturday evening. Dry air will move in and we should be in for a
relatively quiet couple of days on Sunday and Monday. Skies 
will be partly cloudy and warm air advection will push 925mb 
temps into the 23-24C range. That will support highs in the 
upper 80s to near 90 in the Champlain and Saint Lawrence 
Valleys. With the heights building the boundary layer winds will
be quite light and so the air will feel somewhat stagnant 
during the afternoons. Because of the continued warm air 
advection lows overnight will remain well above normal in the 
mid 60s to near 70 which is still nearly 10 degrees above normal
for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 331 AM EDT Friday...An upper level trough will start to 
track through the Great Lakes region early in the week and 
should bring showers and thunderstorms to the North Country by 
mid week. There's quite a discrepancy between the GFS, EC, and 
GEM as to when the trough will actually swing through. The GFS 
is the most progressive and given its typical intensity bias 
I've opted to trend more towards a slower GEM/EC blend for the 
chances for showers. This brings showers in more towards 
Wednesday morning rather than Tuesday afternoon. Regardless of 
timing discontinuities, the dynamics with this system appear to 
be strengthening and its certainly capable of producing heavy 
rainfall. Lapse rates are fairly modest averaging slightly above
moist adiabatic with decent mid level shear however the timing 
of the front Wednesday morning precludes much diurnal heating so
the instability is marginal at best Wednesday morning. If the 
front moves through in the afternoon, either Tuesday or 
Wednesday, then we may need to pay attention for the possibility
of some stronger storms but at the moment the timing doesn't 
look favourable.

Once the front clears we'll see quite a bit of drying move in 
as the upper level flow flattens out a bit and high pressure 
builds in at the surface again. Temps will trend closer to 
normal while still remaining 2-3 degrees above. Expect highs 
behind the front in the low 80s with lows overnight in the mid 
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR through 18Z with mainly BKN mid to
high level cigs from 100-200 AGL. Periods of light rain/showers
to affect KMPV and KRUT terminals in the 10-18Z time frame,
though generally no restrictions expected. Other terminals
should generally remain precipitation-free with perhaps a brief
passing sprinkle. Winds light southerly through this time frame
and mainly less than 8 kts. 

After 18Z steadier bands of light/moderate rainfall push 
northeast into areas from the Adirondack Mountains east and 
south, which may trend heavier at KRUT toward the end of the 
forecast cycle as winds trend light and variable. Cigs 
gradually lower over time, remaining VFR at KBTV, KPBG, KSLK and
KMSS while trending MVFR at KMPV and KRUT. Thunder threat
remains generally on the lower side, with highest confidence of
a passing storm from 22Z onward at KRUT.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect
for Rutland and Windsor Counties from noon today through noon 
on Saturday. Basin-average QPF during this period will generally
range from 1 to 2.5 inches with locally higher totals in areas 
that experience heavier thunderstorms. 1 hour flash flood 
guidance is running in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range in this area, 
which seems reasonable given recent heavy rainfall over the past
week. Indeed antedecent soil moisture conditions are quite wet 
as USGS streamflow and SPORT RSM analysis indicate, especially 
across the southern portions of these two counties. Further 
north, while locally heavy downpours are expected antecedent 
conditions in general are drier and as such will be able to 
handle our current rainfall forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Flash Flood Watch from noon EDT today through Saturday morning 
     for VTZ011-012-019.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...JMG
HYDROLOGY...JMG

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