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SKIVT-L  September 2018, Week 4

SKIVT-L September 2018, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 25 Sep 2018 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (270 lines)

Expires:201809252000;;173221
FPUS51 KBTV 250728
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
326 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018


VTZ006-252000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
326 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

.TODAY...Rain. Highs in the mid 50s. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph
with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Cloudy. Rain likely until midnight, then a chance of
showers after midnight. Lows in the mid 50s. South winds 15 to
20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, diminishing to around 10 mph after
midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...A chance of showers in the morning, then showers with a
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may
produce gusty winds in the afternoon. Much warmer with highs in the
mid 70s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of
rain near 100 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers. Less humid with lows in the mid 40s.
West winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain
near 100 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Light and variable
winds. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 40s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 60s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 40s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the mid 50s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 30s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the upper 50s. 

$$


Expires:201809251100;;181454
ASUS41 KBTV 251030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-251100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    50  38  63 S12       30.45R                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      43  36  76 S7        30.54S                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      46  35  65 S10G18    30.49F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     41  39  93 MISG      30.51S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      40  35  80 SE6       30.52S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      47  39  73 S6        30.47F                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      48  38  68 SW5       30.50S                  
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    42  41  96 CALM      30.55F                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      51  31  46 S13       30.41S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      42  34  71 S9G16     30.48S                  
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    51  42  71 CALM      30.47S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     32 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     34 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     41 N/A N/A SW3         N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     34 N/A N/A SE29G45     N/A  WCI  20          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     52  43  71 S23G32      N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     54  45  71 S41         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     52  41  66 S24G30      N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;175518
FXUS61 KBTV 250813
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
413 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A rainy and cool day is anticipated across northern New York and 
Vermont today with temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s. The 
steadier rainfall tapers off to scattered showers tonight with 
temperatures warming into the 70s by Wednesday. A strong cold front 
interacting with these warmer temperatures will help to fuel 
afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon. Some 
stronger storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts and brief 
heavy rainfall. Cooler and drier weather returns for Thursday into 
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 353 AM EDT Tuesday...An active period of weather 
anticipated today into Weds with periods of rain today, followed
by strong to potentially svr storms on Weds aftn.

Water vapor shows potent 5h short wave and enhanced mid level 
moisture moving across western NY/PA early this morning, which is 
progged to impact our cwa today. Meanwhile, radar shows widespread 
light to moderate rainfall lifting quickly from southwest to 
northeast across most of central and western NY at this time. Expect 
rainfall to overspread our southwest cwa by 10z and quickly move 
into the central cpv by 14z...and into all of VT by 16z today. Given 
the dynamics and strong ribbon of 850 to 700mb fgen forcing, 
thinking a period of moderate rain is likely btwn 16z-21z today. QPF 
with this warm frontal boundary will range btwn 0.30 to 0.60 across 
our cwa today, with highest values across the high peaks in the 
dacks and southeast upslope regions of the green mountains. Some 
shadowing is possible with southeast flow up to 35 knots at 925mb 
and gusty southwest 850mb jet up to 60 knots interacting with best 
lift/moisture couplet. However, given dynamics/lifting mechanism is 
above trrn, qpf should be fairly uniformed today. Next question is 
the potential for gusty southeast downslope winds. Some mixed 
signals this morning, as core of strongest 925mb to 850mb winds are 
closely associated with band of heaviest precip, which will limit 
deep layer mixing. Thinking localized gusts btwn 30 and 35 mph 
possible along the western slopes today with up to 50 to 60 mph on 
exposed ridgetop above 4000 feet. Temps with plenty of clouds/rain 
and low level southeast flow slowly warm into the 50s to lower 60s. 

Best lift/moisture is exiting our cwa this evening as cwa becomes 
established in the warm sector. Expect sfc temps to warm overnight 
with southerly winds and waa prevailing. Lows occur around 00z with 
many locations warming into the 60s by Weds morning and some places 
near 70f in the warmer valleys. Soundings show lots of low level 
moisture lingering, but best forcing with approaching mid level trof 
and pre frontal sfc feature is across northern NY thru 12z Weds. 
Have placed likely pops west and tapered to schc/chc further east, 
but given low level moisture profiles areas of mist/drizzle possible 
in higher trrn acrs central/eastern VT overnight. 

On Weds...a strong cold front and associated mid/upper level trof 
impact our cwa. This boundary will interact with sfc based cape 
values btwn 800 and 1200 j/kg to produce a broken line of showers 
and storms weds aftn. SPC continues to place our entire cwa in 
slight risk for svr, which looks reasonable given frontal timing 
during peak heating, progged instability, and developing deep layer 
shear of 45 to 55 knots. The thermodynamic and shear profiles 
support a linear line of convection with embedded bowing line 
segments capable of damaging thunderstorm wind gusts. Still some 
uncertainty on amount of sfc heating and instability which will 
greatly impact on areal coverage/intensity of convection, but crnt 
thinking is several svr storms are possible. QPF will be highly 
variable associated with convection, with values ranging from 0.10 
to 0.50, but isolated higher amounts likely in the stronger 
convective elements. Temps mainly in the 70s across our fa with 
breezy south winds at 10 to 20 mph with localized higher gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Tuesday...A rather seasonable deep upper level trof
with the axis in the central US and SW flow over our region controls
the weather in the short term. We start out with a cold front
passing across the area with evening showers or thunderstorms
quickly exiting eastward by 06z followed by strong cold and dry
advection from the NW as 925-mb temps drop from the teens to around
5C and PW drops from an inch down to around 0.30" by Thursday
morning as a weak area of high pressure moves in behind the front.
Low temps generally in the 40s. Could be some patches of fog or
stratus around toward morning skies clear, the ground is wet and
winds become light, especially in NY, but not so much in VT.

The high quickly slides east on Thursday and the low-level flow
backs to SW so 925 temps warm to the lower to mid 60s. With the
warm advection, some high and mid clouds will start to return in the
SW flow aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Tuesday...As with the short term, the long term
features the upper level trof over the central US, our region in
brisk SW flow aloft and ridging off the SE US coast. Eventually by
Monday the ridging bridges across the southern US forcing the upper
level trof to retreat northward into Canada and our flow aloft
becomes more westerly or even northwesterly as the ridge builds
northward and high pressure builds in at the surface. Various short
waves will be rounding base of the trof and passing through our
region during the period. Because of the fast flow aloft and
transition from SW to NW flow timing of these are unclear and vary
from model to model. So there will be periods of sun and clouds with
chances of showers from time to time through the long term but it
doesn't look like a washout on any particular day. Temperatures will
be seasonable with highs mainly in the mid 50s to mid 60s and lows
in the 40s with some 30s by Monday as high pressure should
eventually take over.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will prevail thru 10z
with breezy southeast winds at rutland/pbg and btv of 10 to 20
knots. Expect light rain to arrive toward sunrise with cigs
lowering to mvfr conditions at slk/mpv by mid morning. Expect a
brief of moderate rain with mvfr vis/cigs btwn 15-21z today,
before steadier precip shifts north of our taf sites. Given
strong low level wind profiles areas of shear and turbulence is
likely as 50 to 60 knot jet at 5000 feet above ground level
lifts across our taf sites. Soundings show plenty of low level
moisture tonight, with areas of low clouds and br possible with
a mix of mvfr and ifr possible. 

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake wind advisory continues today for south winds 25 to 35 
knots this morning, but decreasing to 15 to 25 knots by
mid morning as the rain arrives. Waves building 4 to 7 feet,
slowly subside to 3 to 5 feet this afternoon. Colchester Reef 
is sustained 35 knots with gusts up to 40 knots early this
morning.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Sisson
LONG TERM...Sisson
AVIATION...Taber
MARINE...Taber

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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June 2010, Week 3
June 2010, Week 2
June 2010, Week 1
May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
January 2010, Week 5
January 2010, Week 4
January 2010, Week 3
January 2010, Week 2
January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
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November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
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July 2009, Week 5
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July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
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June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
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May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 1
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March 2009, Week 1
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
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June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 3
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May 2007, Week 1
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April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
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January 2007, Week 3
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January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 3
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November 2006, Week 1
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October 2006, Week 3
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October 2006, Week 1
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September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
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August 2006, Week 1
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July 2006, Week 3
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May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 3
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