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SKIVT-L  September 2018, Week 4

SKIVT-L September 2018, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 23 Sep 2018 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (251 lines)

Expires:201809232000;;080024
FPUS51 KBTV 231027
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
624 AM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018


VTZ006-232000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
624 AM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...Patchy dense fog and frost this morning. Partly sunny.
Highs in the lower 60s. Light and variable winds, becoming northwest
around 10 mph this afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. North winds around
10 mph, becoming northeast after midnight. 
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 60. Light and variable winds,
becoming southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. South winds
10 to 15 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs around 60. Southeast winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 50s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Showers, warmer with highs in the lower 70s. Chance of
rain 90 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows around 50. Chance of rain
90 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 60s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the lower 60s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 40s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. 

$$


Expires:201809231100;;080229
ASUS41 KBTV 231030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-231100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      41  38  89 NE3       30.26S                  
MONTPELIER     FOG       37  37 100 CALM      30.30R VSB 1/4          
MORRISVILLE    FOG       36  36 100 CALM      30.28R VSB 1/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     37  37 100 MISG      30.26S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      31  31 100 CALM      30.28R FOG              
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      37  37  99 CALM      30.26S                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      40  39  97 SE6       30.27R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       41  41 100 CALM      30.28R VSB 1/2          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      38  38 100 SE6       30.25S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      33  33 100 SW3       30.27R                  
BENNINGTON     FOG       42  40  92 CALM      30.25F VSB 1/2          
ISLAND POND*     N/A     32 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     30 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     34 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     39 N/A N/A W15         N/A  WCI  31          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     48  45  87 SE9         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     48  46  93 SE8         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     45  45 100 SE7         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;080473
FXUS61 KBTV 231039
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
639 AM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control over the northeastern US
through Monday, allowing for a continuation of dry weather and 
cooler temperatures in the North Country. Overnight lows this 
morning and tonight will approach freezing in many locations of 
the northern Adirondacks and eastern Vermont. Temperatures will 
gradually start to trend upward Monday as strong high pressure 
to our north shifts eastward to the Canadian Maritimes, allowing
return southerly flow to set up over New England. A warm front 
will move through the region Tuesday, bringing the next chance 
of rain for the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Sunday...Residents of the North Country will 
wake up to a chilly fall morning today. Morning low 
temperatures are generally ranging from the low 30s to the low 
40s, supporting the continuation of some frost/freeze headlines.
Frost Advisories continue for portions of the northern 
Adirondacks and eastern Vermont through 9 AM today, while a 
freeze warning is still in place for Essex County, Vermont, 
until 9 AM today. 

The center of the surface high pressure over New England will 
shift east today. As a stronger high over central Canada shifts
east to ON/QB today, a front will push southward towards the 
International Border. Plenty of dry air in place over the North 
Country will act to minimize the impacts of the front. Overall,
just expecting some mid clouds to spread into our forecast area
from the north through the day today, but no precipitation is 
expected. Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than 
yesterday; look for highs in the low to mid 60s throughout the 
forecast area. 

Tonight will be another chilly night with some patchy frost possible 
in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont and the northern 
Adirondacks. A slightly colder air mass will be in place as the 
center of the Canadian High sets up just to our north. However, 
radiative cooling conditions won't be as favorable tonight as 
were this morning, given the anticipated cloud cover south of 
the high. Lows will generally be a few degrees warmer tonight - 
falling in the low 30s to low 40s range. 

Should see more widespread sunshine Monday as the ridge axis
shifts east. Highs will again be in the mid 50s to mid 60s -
warmest in the western portion of the cwa where return southerly
flow will start to advect in some warmer air.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 313 AM EDT Sunday...High pressure will shift off to the east
Monday night and Tuesday while and upper trough digs into the
Central Plains. Showers associated with warm air advection and
increasing moisture will spread into the region from west to east
late Monday night into Tuesday morning. The showers will be
steadiest during the morning and early afternoon, then coverage will
wind down from west to east late in the day. South to southwest
winds will increase through this period as well as a 55+kt 850mb jet
swings across the North Country. There is some uncertainty as to how
much of this will be realized as the aforementioned warm air
advection aloft and widespread showers will preclude optimal mixing.
Regardless, Tuesday will be on the breezy side, especially over far
northern areas. Monday night's lows will be warmer than the previous
night owing to increasing clouds and moisture, though the far
Northeast Kingdom could drop back into the 30s as skies will remain
clear there for a good part of the night. Tuesday's temperatures
will be below normal for much of the region in spite of warming
temperatures aloft; highs will mainly be in the upper 50s to lower
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 313 AM EDT Sunday...An active weather pattern is expected
through much of next week. A warm front will approach and then lift
across the North Country Tuesday night, with temperatures likely to
hold steady or possibly even rise overnight. Steadier showers will
wane a bit overnight as the best warm advection shifts north, but
another round is expected on Wednesday ahead of a cold frontal
passage. The surge of warm and moist air will result in modest
instability; CAPEs look to be in the 300-600 J/kg range. This
coupled with 0-6km shear of 40-50kt should allow for some
thunderstorms during the afternoon, particularly over the St
Lawrence Valley where the timing of the front will be most
favorable. Precipitation will come to a quick end from west to east
Wednesday evening as drier air rushes in behind the cold front. High
pressure will bring a brief dry spell on Thursday, but shower
chances will increase again on Friday as a potent upper trough
swings in from the west. This feature will move through fairly
quickly, so Saturday is looking dry and seasonably cool at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Skies are clearing from north to south 
overnight as some cirrus clouds shift southward. The clearing 
skies and light winds are already setting up optimal conditions 
for fog development in the favored valley locations. Fog has 
already developed at KSLK and KMPV, with LIFR visibilities and 
ceilings expected to prevail through 12Z. Both sites should see
improving conditions 12Z through 14Z, with VFR conditions
expected after 14Z. The remaining TAF sites could see some 
vicinity fog develop, with some temporarily reduced flight 
categories, however confidence is not high enough to include in 
the TAF at this point. 

Widespread VFR conditions will predominate after 14Z.  Scattered 
mid-level clouds at 10kft-15kft agl will advance south from 
Canada during the day, with no precipitation anticipated. 

Light and variable winds overnight will become northwesterly
5-10 kts during the afternoon today, then become northeasterly
5-10 kts between 00Z and 06Z tonight as the surface high
pressure to our north shifts eastward. 

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VTZ003-006>008-
     010-012-017.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for VTZ004.
NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSD
NEAR TERM...RSD
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...RSD

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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