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SKIVT-L  October 2018, Week 2

SKIVT-L October 2018, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 14 Oct 2018 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (249 lines)

Expires:201810142000;;154266
FPUS51 KBTV 140733
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
330 AM EDT Sun Oct 14 2018


VTZ006-142000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
330 AM EDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...Widespread frost this morning. Partly sunny. Highs in the
upper 40s. West winds around 10 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. Light and variable winds. 
.MONDAY...Showers. Highs around 50. Light and variable winds,
becoming south around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain
80 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Rain showers. Lows in the upper 30s. West winds
15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. West winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Rain showers likely. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Rain showers likely or a chance of snow showers.
Little or no snow accumulation. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the lower 30s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 40s. 
.SATURDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the
upper 40s. 

$$


Expires:201810141100;;161637
ASUS41 KBTV 141030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-141100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    38  35  89 CALM      30.12R                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      35  33  92 SW5       30.12R WCI  31          
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    34  33  96 CALM      30.10R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     35  34  96 MISG      30.08R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    36  30  77 CALM      30.09R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      34  33  97 CALM      30.14R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      35  34  96 CALM      30.13R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       30  30 100 CALM      30.14R VSB 3/4          
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    36  34  92 CALM      30.11R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    37  29  74 CALM      30.10R                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      36  34  92 CALM      30.14R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     36 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     34 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     27 N/A N/A NW24        N/A  WCI  12          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     45  32  61 NW1         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     46  36  66 NW9         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     41  37  87 SE7         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;156951
FXUS61 KBTV 140834
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
434 AM EDT Sun Oct 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A typical North Country fall like pattern will occur this week 
with several swings in daily temperatures and chances for rain 
or mountain snow showers every couple of days. Temperatures will
be seasonably cool with highs generally in the the mid 40s to 
low 50s and lows overnight in the 30s to low 40s. The first 
chance for precip will be on Monday as a system brings 
widespread rainfall to the region. Heading towards the middle 
of the workweek some light snow accumulations will be possible 
in the higher elevations above 1500 feet.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 405 AM EDT Sunday...The story of the night has been the 
persistent stratocu. Broken to overcast skies have prevailed 
through most of the night limiting our potential for radiational
cooling. As such temps have been much slower to fall than 
initially forecast. Latest satellite obs are finally showing 
some clearing as the stratus layer erodes and that's being 
reflected by surface obs across northern New York and southern 
Vermont. Latest LAV MOS has finally picked up on the clouds and
temps so I trended heavily towards that forecast. There's 
certainly still time for central Vermont to clear before sunrise
so temps will still drop close to freezing and areas of frost 
are still expected this morning so no changes to the current
headlines.

After daybreak we can expect southerly winds to pick up and 
we'll warm into the upper 40s to low 50s for a nice fall day. 
Anticipate partly cloudy skies through mid day and so the 
weather should be pleasant for any outdoor activities planned 
today. Warm air should continue to push in from the south to 
southwest and so our overnight lows will be in the upper 30s to 
mid 40s Sunday night.

Our next chance for widespread showers will be on Monday as a 
deepening low pressure system tracks though the Ottawa Valley. A
warm advection rain should lead to most areas picking up 
between a 0.1-0.3 inches of rainfall over a relatively quick 
period. The Champlain Valley however will likely be on the lower
tier of that precip as a modest low level jet from the 
southwest will shadow the valley. Expect decent winds along Lake
Champlain and at elevations above 2500' as model soundings show
the potential for 40-50kts in the higher elevations and 
20-30kts possible along Lake Champlain as the flow becomes 
funneled out of the south. Temps during the day Monday should 
continue to steadily increase topping out in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 433 AM EDT Sunday...The cold front will move quickly through
the region early Monday night with the 850mb flow 40 to 50 kts. That
rather brisk NW flow will keep showers lingering with orographic
upslope in the mountains and western slopes behind the departing
cold front but should dry up pretty quickly. Some of the lingering
showers may mix with and change to snow in the mountains, though no
significant accumulations are anticipated. It will get quite chilly
with lows from 30 to 40 with strong cold advection.

Tuesday should mainly be dry with a mix of sun and clouds with a
weak ridge of high pressure building into the area and high temps in
the 40s.

Tuesday night a vigorous upper level trof will approach the region
from the Great Lakes with falling heights and backing low level
flow. It will pick up some moisture from the lakes with some lake
enhanced precipitation to northern areas especially in NY. Most
areas will be rain showers though some of the highest elevations
could be mixed with snow. Low temps won't fall too much with
readings in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 433 AM EDT Sunday...The long term features a period of much
cooler than normal temps as a deep upper level trof progresses
through the northeast US through Thursday followed by some warming
with rising heights by Friday. On Saturday, another digging trof and
cold front approaches with cooling once again.

On Wednesday a cold front will move across the region with rain
showers changing to snow showers with high temps again in the 40s.
Behind the front another period of NW upslope flow is expected and
with 1000-500mb thicknesses falling as low as 516dm in the NEK and
850 temps falling to -10-12C by Wed night into Thursday morning
could see some decent dendritic snow growth for some light fluffy
snow shower accumulations possibly reaching the lower elevations
along the western slopes. Lows will be mainly in the 20s in the
lower terrain to lower 30s in the valleys.

The upper level trof moves off to the east on Thursday so any
lingering flurries will come to an end but it will be quite chilly
with highs mainly in the 30s but near 40 in the valleys.

By Thursday night and Friday some moderation in temps is expected as
the upper level trof moves out followed by some warm advection and
perhaps some weak warm frontal precip. Lows in the 20s and highs in
the 40s.

The next cold front and chance of precipitation comes on Saturday
for another round of chilly temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...VFR conditions are expected through the 
period. Scattered-broken clouds will slowly erode through the
rest of the overnight hours with SCT-BKN ceilings around 5kft.
No precipitation is expected and thus visibilities will remain 
in the VFR category through the period. Winds continue light 
and variable and will become southerly after 12z...but remain 
at speeds of 10 knots or less.

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Likely SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ002-005-009-
     011.
     Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ006-008-010-
     012-016>019.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ026>028-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Sisson
LONG TERM...Sisson
AVIATION...Deal

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 1
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April 2008, Week 5
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January 2008, Week 1
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 1
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January 2007, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 3
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March 2005, Week 4
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March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 3
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September 2004, Week 1
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August 2004, Week 3
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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