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SKIVT-L  October 2018, Week 2

SKIVT-L October 2018, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 11 Oct 2018 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (236 lines)

Expires:201810112000;;007109
FPUS51 KBTV 111035
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
631 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018


VTZ006-112000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
631 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

.TODAY...Rain. Highs in the lower 60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Cloudy. A slight chance of showers until midnight. Lows
in the upper 40s. Southwest winds around 10 mph, becoming northwest
with gusts up to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. Highs
around 50. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Northwest
winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 40s. West winds around
10 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 50. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 30s. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 40s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers.
Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of snow showers. Highs in the
mid 40s. Chance of snow 50 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of rain or snow showers.
Highs in the upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 

$$


Expires:201810111100;;006827
ASUS41 KBTV 111030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-111100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     RAIN      58  57  97 CALM      29.68F FOG              
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  65  65 100 S9        29.79F                  
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  62  62 100 CALM      29.73F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     65  63  93 MISG      29.74F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT RAIN  63  61  94 SE10G18   29.78F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    HVY RAIN  67  66  94 S8        29.72F                  
RUTLAND*       HVY RAIN  66  64  94 SE7       29.76F FOG              
SPRINGFIELD    LGT RAIN  64  64 100 CALM      29.78F FOG              
HIGHGATE*      RAIN      51  51 100 CALM      29.70F                  
NEWPORT*       DRIZZLE   58  58 100 CALM      29.73F                  
BENNINGTON     HVY RAIN  70  66  87 S9        29.76F FOG              
ISLAND POND*     N/A     61 N/A N/A E9          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     59 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     66 N/A N/A S8          N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     59 N/A N/A SW22G36     N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     54  54 100 W1          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     55  54  94 S1          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     57  57 100 S5          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;007092
FXUS61 KBTV 111034
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
634 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region today with widespread 
showers and periods of rainfall, especially from the Adirondacks
eastward. Behind this front much cooler weather arrives for 
Friday into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 634 AM EDT Thursday...Just some minor adjustments to 
hourly wind, temperature and dewpoint fields were made at 600 am
to reflect current observational trends over the past few 
hours. The broader philosophy for today's forecast as described 
below remains largely unchanged however. Have a great day.

Prior discussion...
Backdoor front has settled south into the northern St Lawrence 
and Champlain Valleys, while backing west into eastern portions 
of VT as of 300 am. As expected, temperatures are showing wide 
variability across this boundary (50s to lower 70s). Increasing 
coverage of showers and periods of light to moderate rain remain
on track for today as deep subtropical moisture rides northeast
ahead of a stronger frontal boundary advancing east from 
southern Ontario and eastern Great Lakes. Good moisture 
convergence and synoptic forcing aloft argue for maintenance of 
high PoPs for all but the SLV which will generally lie just west
of the deeper moisture plume. As the front clears east later 
this afternoon a broad decrease in pcpn is expected from west to
east. 12-16 hr basin average QPF should average from 0.25 to 
0.5 inches across the SLV, 0.5 to 1.0 inches across the Dacks 
into central/northern VT, and from 1 to 1.5 inches in southern 
VT in close agreement with most recent NBM output. Given the 
rainfall will occur over a longer time frame, hydrological 
concerns remain minimal at this time. High temperatures will be 
quite tricky once again given placement of the current backdoor 
boundary and the degree to which it lifts out in advance of the 
stronger secondary front. Feel eastern VT counties will struggle
the most as low static stability holds tough, so only upper 50s
to lower 60s expected in these areas. Further west mainly mid 
60s to around 70 looks reasonable at this point as southerly 
flow becomes re- established here.

Any lingering showers then clear south and east with the departing 
frontal zone this evening, though variable clouds will linger. 
Highest probabilities of partial clearing to occur in the SLV and 
the northern Champlain Valley as low level flow trends light west to 
northwesterly. Low temperatures a blend of available guidance, which 
appears reasonable at this point - mainly mid 40s to lower 50s.

By Friday cool high pressure builds east from the central states 
while a rather large longwave trough slowly edges east from the 
Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. Some 
lingering variable cloud cover may still exist in the morning hours, 
but most spots should trend partly sunny by afternoon. Mean 925 mb 
temperatures at 18Z range from 4-8C, supporting afternoon maxima 
from the upper 40s to mid 50s under moderate northwesterly
breezes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 357 AM EDT Thursday...Expect much cooler, fall-like 
temperatures on Friday night into Saturday behind a cold front. 
Using a combination of the 1000-500mb thicknesses and 925mb 
temps I feel that we'll see our first day with a high temp below
50 degrees since April 20th of this year. Anticipate highs 
across the North Country to be in the mid to upper 40s under 
partly to mostly cloudy skies with some orographic rain showers 
possible in the morning as an upper level trough swings through.

Saturday evening should be fairly chilly as we'll likely see a 
reinforcing shot of cold air. Expect we'll see another good 
frost/freeze night with lows in the low to mid 30s and a few 
locations in the upper 20s. Winds should be fairly light which 
would allow for some frost and we're currently already running 
about a week behind our normal first frost for the Champlain 
Valley.

Sunday should be a fairly pleasant day across the North Country
as southerly winds start to bring in some slightly warmer air 
and temps warm into the mid 50s. We should be fairly quiet under
the typical fall pattern of mostly cloudy to overcast skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 357 AM EDT Thursday...The work week looks to be fairly 
seasonably cool with daily highs in the upper 40s to low 50s and
lows overnight in the 30s. We'll be under a fairly progressive 
pattern with chances for showers both Monday and Wednesday as a 
pair of troughs push through the region. Neither really has much
in the way of PWAT so I wouldn't expect much in the way of 
significant precip but its possible we could see some drizzle
and/or flurries in the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Frontal system crossing the area today will
bring periods of light rain and IFR/LIFR cigs at most terminals.
Visibilities quite variable, though occnl 2-5sm br appears
reasonable from time to time. Wind generally light and less than
10 kts through 12z, though locally north/northeasterly around 10
kts at KMSS. After 12Z winds generally trend south to 
southwesterly from 5-10 kts in advance of the front. Front then 
clears east in the 21-02Z time frame with pcpn tapering off and 
cigs gradually improving to VFR by 03Z. Winds to slowly veer to 
southwesterly, then west to northwesterly in the 4-8 kt range 
over time after 00Z.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night:  Chance SHRA.
Monday:  Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...JMG

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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January 2009, Week 1
December 2008, Week 5
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October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
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August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
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December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
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November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
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July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
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June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
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May 2006, Week 3
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November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
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October 2005, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
August 2005, Week 4
August 2005, Week 3
August 2005, Week 2
August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 3
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 4
June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
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January 2005, Week 3
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January 2005, Week 1
December 2004, Week 5
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December 2004, Week 3
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November 2004, Week 4
November 2004, Week 3
November 2004, Week 2
November 2004, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 4
October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 4
September 2004, Week 3
September 2004, Week 2
September 2004, Week 1
August 2004, Week 5
August 2004, Week 4
August 2004, Week 3
August 2004, Week 2
August 2004, Week 1
July 2004, Week 5
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July 2004, Week 3
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July 2004, Week 1
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June 2004, Week 4
June 2004, Week 3
June 2004, Week 2
June 2004, Week 1
May 2004, Week 5
May 2004, Week 4
May 2004, Week 3
May 2004, Week 2
May 2004, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 3
April 2004, Week 2
April 2004, Week 1
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March 2004, Week 3
March 2004, Week 2
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December 2002, Week 2
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November 2002, Week 3
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November 2002, Week 1
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October 2002, Week 3
October 2002, Week 2
October 2002, Week 1
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September 2002, Week 3
September 2002, Week 2
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August 2002, Week 3
August 2002, Week 2
August 2002, Week 1
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July 2002, Week 2
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June 2002, Week 2
June 2002, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 4
April 2002, Week 3
April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
March 2002, Week 5
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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January 2002, Week 3
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January 2002, Week 1
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December 1999, Week 5
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June 1999, Week 2
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May 1999, Week 2
May 1999, Week 1
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April 1999, Week 3
April 1999, Week 2
April 1999, Week 1
March 1999, Week 5
March 1999, Week 4
March 1999, Week 3
March 1999, Week 2
March 1999, Week 1
February 1999, Week 4
February 1999, Week 3
February 1999, Week 2
February 1999, Week 1
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January 1999, Week 3
January 1999, Week 2
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December 1998, Week 5
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