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SKIVT-L  October 2018, Week 2

SKIVT-L October 2018, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 12 Oct 2018 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (251 lines)

Expires:201810122000;;051709
FPUS51 KBTV 120733
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
330 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018


VTZ006-122000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
330 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018

.TODAY...Cloudy. Highs in the lower 50s. Northwest winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then mostly cloudy with a
chance of rain showers after midnight. Lows in the upper 30s.
Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph until midnight,
becoming light and variable. Chance of rain 30 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain or snow showers in the
morning, then a slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon.
Highs in the mid 40s. Light and variable winds, becoming northwest
around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Widespread frost. Lows in the lower
30s. West winds around 10 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Widespread frost. Highs in the lower 50s.
West winds around 10 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 30s. 
.MONDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 40s. Chance of rain
60 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Rain showers likely. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of
rain 60 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the mid 40s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow
showers. Areas of frost. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of
precipitation 40 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers.
Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow
showers. Lows around 30. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Widespread frost. Highs around 40. 

$$


Expires:201810121100;;059566
ASUS41 KBTV 121030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-121100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    54  45  71 N3        29.63R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    52  48  86 NW8       29.64R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    50  44  80 N8        29.63R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     52  48  86 MISG      29.59R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    49  43  79 W8G16     29.62S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    54  46  75 N5        29.61S                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    54  46  74 NW7       29.60F                  
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    57  48  72 NW8G18    29.56S                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    49  47  92 CALM      29.63R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    49  42  78 W5        29.63S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    55  46  71 NW8       29.61R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     48 N/A N/A NW6         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     48 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     48 N/A N/A N2          N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     37 N/A N/A NW39        N/A  WCI  23          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     55  45  67 NW12G20     N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     55  45  67 N17         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     55  46  71 N9          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;059729
FXUS61 KBTV 121038
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
638 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Variable clouds and cooler, more seasonable temperatures are on
track for today into the upcoming weekend. A weak weather 
system passing south of the area may bring a few light showers 
to the area Saturday morning, otherwise dry weather is expected 
into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 638 AM EDT Friday...Some minor adjustments to sky cover 
were made as of 630 am, mainly to nudge values toward recent 
observational trends. Otherwise the current forecast remains on 
track. Have a great day.

Prior discussion... 
The surface cold front is now east of the area pushing into 
eastern and southern New England as of 300 am while post-TC 
Michael and it's heavy rains/winds track off the Delmarva coast 
toward the 40N/-70W benchmark. A classic fall- like, autumnal 
pattern still looks on track for the forecast area over the next
36-42 hours. Modest west/northwesterly flow will persist under 
a slowly relaxing pressure gradient as Michael's remnants race 
into the north Atlantic toward Sable Is., NS and onward south of
Cape Race, NF. There could be some peeks of sun today, but 
clouds will hang tough for the most part as moisture remains 
trapped under a pronounced post-frontal synoptic inversion and 
blocked lower levels per Froude values <1. Outside a stray 
mountain sprinkle dry weather is expected. High temperatures to 
run more seasonable, generally from the upper 40s to mid 50s 
which is close to most recent blended guidance.

By tonight variable clouds early trend overcast later at night as 
shortwave energy tracks from the eastern Ohio Valley into the Mid 
Atlantic region on the south side of an approaching longwave upper 
trough. Most of the better dynamics associated with this system will 
remain south of our area. Nonetheless, enough moisture should advect 
north such that a few/scattered light showers will be possible later 
at night into Saturday morning, most focused across the higher 
terrain where the west/northwesterly flow enhances orographic 
processes. Snow levels lower to around 2000 ft in the Dacks and 
2500 ft in the Greens per most recent model sounding profiles. 
As such, a light dusting to perhaps a half inch accumulation 
will be possible in favored higher elevation slopes - the first 
such occurrence of the season. I did lean about 3-5 degrees 
milder than MOS guidance given abundance of clouds and light 
northwest flow keeping the nocturnal boundary layer somewhat 
mixed - mainly mid 30s to lower 40s.

Any lingering sprinkles or light showers then taper off Saturday 
morning as longwave trough swings through aloft while surface high 
pressure bridges east across the Ohio Valley and the Mid Atlantic. 
Mainly cloudy skies should trend partly sunny in most areas by 
afternoon under continued west/northwest flow. Despite the sun, 
temperatures will trend seasonably cool, topping out only from the 
mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 417 AM EDT Friday...High pressure will be building to our
south leading to west southwesterly cold air advection Saturday
night. Expect the coldest night of the fall thus far with temps
in the 20s across most of the North Country except in the 
Champlain Valley where Lake Champlain will keep most areas in 
the low to mid 30s. Areas of frost should be a sure bet and so 
we'll most likely need some frost/freeze headlines for tomorrow 
night.

Sunday should be fairly quiet as the winds shift more south to 
southwesterly and bring in some low level warm air advection. As
clouds build from the southwest expect temps to warm into the 
low to mid 50s on a pleasant day to end the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 417 AM EDT Friday...The extended starts out under fast 
progressive flow aloft bringing periods of showers in fast 
moving troughs and breaks in between behind the troughs through 
Wedensday. Temps will be seasonably cool as 1000-500mb thickness
hover around 540mb. Expect mostly just rain showers as the 
first front clears with widespread light rain on Monday into 
Monday night. Monday night some of the lingering rain make turn
to snow at higher elevations but I'm not expecting any 
significant snowfall.

Tuesday should be quiet as a quick ridge builds in but then the
next system brings another round of rain and higher elevation 
snowfall on Wednesday. Towards the end of the weekend a large 
scale high pressure system builds over the central conus with an
upper level trough squarely over New England. This will lead to
on and off chances for showers with the rain in the valleys and
some light snowfall in the higher elevations.

Temps will be trending colder with daily highs in the 40s and 
lows overnight generally in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Thursday 
looks to be the coldest day with potential highs in the colder 
hollows not warming above 40.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...A mix of BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR cigs through 
15Z, trending VFR thereafter with some breaks in the 16-00Z time
frame. Post-frontal stratocumulus clouds to hang tough through 
much of the forecast period. Cigs to generally run from 025-045 
AGL through 15Z, lifting to 040-060 AGL thereafter with higher 
summits obscured. Other than a brief, passing sprinkle through 
15Z no precipitation is expected. Winds generally west to 
northwesterly from 6-12 kt with occasional gusts into the 15-20 
kt range through 00Z, After 00Z winds to trend light 
west to southwesterly from 3-5 kt with mainly BKN/OVC cigs in
the 035-060 AGL range. Weak energy passing south of the area 
may spark a brief light shower late in the period, though 
paucity of coverage warrants omission from the terminal 
forecasts at this point.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...JMG

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
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April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
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March 2009, Week 2
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February 2009, Week 1
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June 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
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October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 3
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September 2004, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
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February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
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