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SKIVT-L  October 2018, Week 2

SKIVT-L October 2018, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 13 Oct 2018 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (254 lines)

Expires:201810132000;;102535
FPUS51 KBTV 130743
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
340 AM EDT Sat Oct 13 2018


VTZ006-132000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
340 AM EDT Sat Oct 13 2018

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

.TODAY...A chance of snow showers this morning. Cloudy with a chance
of rain showers. Highs in the mid 40s. Light and variable winds,
becoming west around 10 mph this afternoon. Chance of precipitation
50 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Areas of frost. Lows in the lower 30s.
Northwest winds around 10 mph until midnight, becoming light and
variable. 
.SUNDAY...Widespread frost in the morning. Mostly sunny. Highs in
the lower 50s. Light and variable winds, becoming west around 10 mph
in the afternoon. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Lows around 40. Light and variable winds. 
.MONDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 50s. South winds around
10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows in the mid 30s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the mid 40s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows in the mid 30s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Rain showers likely. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Snow showers likely. Lows in the upper 20s.
Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the mid 30s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. 

$$


Expires:201810131100;;110266
ASUS41 KBTV 131030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-131100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    43  37  79 SE3       29.76R                  
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  39  38  96 W5        29.76R                  
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  39  36  89 N10       29.75R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     43  36  76 MISG      29.71R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    39  35  87 CALM      29.74R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    DRIZZLE   41  39  92 CALM      29.76S                  
RUTLAND*       LGT RAIN  43  37  81 W6        29.75S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    43  41  93 NW3       29.74F                  
HIGHGATE*      MOCLDY    40  35  80 CALM      29.75R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    37  35  92 SW6       29.74R                  
BENNINGTON     LGT RAIN  44  40  85 CALM      29.75R                  
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     37 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     28 N/A N/A W23         N/A  WCI  14          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     45  34  65 W3G13       N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     46  36  66 N7          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     43  39  87 E8          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;103425
FXUS61 KBTV 130802
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
402 AM EDT Sat Oct 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Today expect cool temperatures and cloudy skies as an upper 
level trough digs through the North Country. As the wave passes 
there will be some light rain and mountain snow showers through
the rest of the overnight into the morning hours today. Temps 
will continue to fall through the day today as we only warm 
today to the upper 30s to near 50 both today and Sunday. 
Saturday evening expect temperatures to fall to the upper 20s to
low 30s except for areas immediately near Lake Champlain so 
areas of frost are likely.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 328 AM EDT Saturday...Clouds continue to push into the 
region this morning as an upper level trough digs through the 
Ohio Valley region. Southwesterly cold air advection pushes in 
and we'll see a seasonably chilly day today with highs in the 
upper 30s to low 40s for most of the North Country. Areas near 
Lake Champlain will be a tad warmer with Lake Champlain SST's 
still in the upper 50s to around 60. Clouds will begin to 
scatter out late in the day and into during the overnight hours
as a high pressure system builds to our south over the Mid- 
Atlantic region. With some low and mid level moisture around  
some mountain snow showers will develop and a dusting to an 
inch of snow is possible in elevations above 2500 feet.

Temps will begin to fall rapidly this evening into the upper 
20s to low 30s and mid 30s in areas near Lake Champlain. As 
winds weaken expect areas of frost to develop across most of the
North Country. As such frost advisories are now in effect for 
tonight and freeze warnings are in effect from the spine of the 
Greens east in areas where our frost/freeze program is still 
valid. Expect some riming in the higher elevations as temps 
will be in the low to mid 20s at the summits. The expected 
temperatures will damage any unprotected sensitive vegetation 
and unprotected outdoor plumbing.

Sunday will be a rather nice day across the region as the high 
starts to push offshore and our winds turn more south to 
southwesterly. This will push temps back into the upper 40s to 
low 50s and clouds will once again push in from the the west. 
All in all it should be a seasonably cool but typical Fall 
weekend across the North Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 401 AM EDT Saturday...High pressure will be moving off the
coast south of New England early Sunday night with a return S-SW low
level flow developing with some weak upper level ridging under warm
advection. Upper level moisture/clouds will also begin to stream
into the region so that by 12z Monday there is a chance of rain
showers. With the return flow and increasing clouds not expecting
temps to fall much with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Rain showers are likely on Monday as a cold front and its 
associated upper level trof approach Monday afternoon and 
evening. Any precipitation is expected to on the light side 
generally a quarter of an inch or less. With lots of clouds and 
showers expecting high temps mainly in the lower to mid 50s on 
Monday. The cold front will move quickly through the region 
early Monday night with the 850mb flow of around 40 kts. That 
rather brisk NW flow will keep showers lingering with orographic
upslope in the mountains and western slopes behind the 
departing cold front. Some of the lingering showers may mix with
and change to snow at higher elevations, though no significant 
accumulations are anticipated at this time. It will get quite 
chilly with lows from 30 to 40 with strong cold advection.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 401 AM EDT Saturday...The long term features a period of much
cooler than normal temps as a deep upper level trof digs southeast
from central Canada and progresses through the northeast US through
Thursday followed by some warming with rising heights by Friday.

Tuesday should mainly be dry with a ridge building into the area
once again for a short time with high temps in the 40s.

Tuesday night the digging upper level trough and backing low level
flow will bring some lake effect precipitation to northern areas
especially in NY. Low temps won't fall too much with readings in the
30s.

By Wednesday a cold front will move across the region bringing
another chance for rain showers changing to snow showers with high
temps again in the 40s.

Behind the front another period of NW upslope flow is expected and
with 1000-500mb thicknesses falling as low as 510dm in the NEK and
850 temps falling to -10-12C by Wed night into Thursday morning
could see some decent dendritic snow growth for some light fluffy
snow shower accumulations reaching the lower elevations along the
western slopes. Lows will be mainly in the 20s in the lower terrain
to lower 30s in the valleys.

The upper level trof moves off to the east on Thursday so any
lingering flurries will come to an end but it will be quite chilly
with highs mainly in the 30s but near 40 in the valleys.

By Thursday night and Friday some moderation in temps is expected as
the upper level trof moves out followed by some warm advection and
perhaps some weak warm frontal precip. Lows in the 20s and highs in
the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Generally VFR expected through the period 
with some scattered showers overnight. Brief periods of some 
MVFR ceilings will continue at SLK but generally expect clouds 
to lift to VFR between 4-6kft during the early morning and 
throughout most of the day. As high pressure builds in this 
afternoon clouds cover will drop off for most of the region as 
light west to southwest winds prevail 5-10kts during the 
daylight hours and going calm to light and variable overnight.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for 
     VTZ002-005-009-011.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for 
     VTZ006-008-010-012-016>019.
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for 
     NYZ026>028-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Sisson
LONG TERM...Sisson
AVIATION...Deal

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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April 2009, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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October 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 5
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March 2005, Week 4
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March 2002, Week 3
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February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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