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SKIVT-L  October 2018, Week 2

SKIVT-L October 2018, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 9 Oct 2018 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (260 lines)

Expires:201810092000;;893076
FPUS51 KBTV 090731
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
328 AM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018


VTZ006-092000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
328 AM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Much
warmer with highs in the mid 70s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers until midnight,
then a chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the mid 60s.
Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 70s. West winds around 10 mph in the morning, becoming
light and variable. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 50s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. 
.THURSDAY...Showers. Highs in the lower 60s. South winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the mid 40s. Chance of rain
80 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs around 50. Chance of rain
60 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 30s. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 50s. 

$$


Expires:201810091100;;900808
ASUS41 KBTV 091030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE OCT 09 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-091100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      65  59  81 S15G26    30.20F                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    65  63  93 S9        30.28S                  
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    54  54 100 CALM      30.22F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     57  55  93 MISG      30.24S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    54  54  99 SE7       30.27F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    63  59  88 S6        30.27F                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    58  57  97 NE3       30.30R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    55  55 100 CALM      30.31S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      62  60  93 S12G17    30.17S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      55  55  98 S12       30.22S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    63  60  90 NW3       30.31F                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     54 N/A N/A NE2         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     52 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     57 N/A N/A W35         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     63  59  88 S21G32      N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     61  59  94 S26         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     63  59  88 SE21        N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;894094
FXUS61 KBTV 090804
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
404 AM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will remain over or just north of the area 
through Wednesday night with generally mild weather and only a 
few scattered showers across northern counties. A strong cold 
front will cross the area on Thursday with a widespread wetting 
rainfall expected. Behind this front a seasonably cool airmass 
returns for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...A complex temperature and cloud 
forecast continues to unfold across our area over the next 36-42
hours as a warm front lifts northward through the area today, 
then settles back southward into far northern counties on 
Wednesday. A wide variety in temperatures already exists early 
this morning as the front has lifted into the Adirondacks and 
the Champlain Valley, while making only slow progress into the 
SLV and eastern VT. Case in point the 300 am observations 
showing KMSS still holding at 50F while just 30 nm to the 
southeast KPTD has risen into the lower 70s. Strong warm thermal
advection riding atop this retreating cold pool continues to 
spark scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across northern
NY into the Ottawa and St Lawernce Valleys and the idea of a 
few showers continuing across our northern NY zones today still 
looks reasonable per model blended QPF output. High temperatures
will be quite tricky given a continued stable layer near 925 mb
keeping ample moisture trapped beneath. By mid to late 
afternoon I feel enough boundary low level heating and mixing 
should allow most places to trend partly sunny, though 
admittedly my confidence is only modest across the Adirondacks 
and north central/northeast VT. As such I've kept the warmest 
readings in the Champlain/St Lawrence Valleys and southwestern 
VT where late afternoon values should top out in the 75 to 80 
degree range. Elsewhere, lower to perhaps mid 70s look 
reasonable. That said my forecast confidence is only modest. If 
you believe the strict Hysplit back-trajectory output at 500m 
our source air today originates from the Mid Atlantic states 
yesterday where highs ranged from 83 to 88F. However, it looks 
as if we'll struggle to mix that deeply, thus my reasoning 
described above. While most maximum temperature records should 
be safe, a few spots, most notably KBTV and KMSS may come close.
Please see climate section below for specific records.

By tonight the warm front lifts bodily north of the area under broad 
south to southwesterly flow. Any chances of showers should be 
confined to the far north and points northward into southern ON/QE 
overnight in closer proximity to the front. Low temperatures to 
remain quite mild, generally holding in the 60s.

On Wednesday the temperature/cloud forecast doesn't become any 
easier as guidance continues to indicate the front surging back 
south/southwestward into the far northern counties during the day 
with cloud/shower threat increasing along with falling temperatures. 
To capture these trends I used a blend of most recent NAM12, 4km WRF 
and GFS FV3 hourly temperature output. This would suggest high 
temperatures to continue mild across central/southern counties - 73 
to 78F which should remain largely unaffected by the boundary. 
Further north, mid-day readings to top out in the upper 60s to lower 
70s before readings fall sharply by later in the afternoon as the 
front passes and winds trend northerly. Indeed, if you believe the 
raw hi-res output, portions of the northern Champlain and St. 
Lawrence Valleys may fall back into the upper 50s to lower 60s by 
late afternoon. Time will tell.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 401 AM EDT Tuesday...Wednesday night into Thursday is a 
challenging forecast. The front that has been waffling around 
over the North Country will be in the process of dropping a 
backdoor cold front from the north Wednesday night into Thursday
morning over the International Border into the northern
Champlain Valley. As that happens, the rest of that same 
backdoor cold front will also be pressing in from the east to northeast.
So there's going to be a bit of squeeze some where west of the 
Greens but east of Lake Champlain where temps will be a fair bit
warmer than all other surrounding obs. I've trended hourly 
temps and max/min temps to try and capture the front but wasn't
quite ready to go with the 8-10 deg F drop in an hour that the 
NAM12 is forecasting. 

By mid morning on Thursday southerly flow should pick up and 
usher in a warmer and moist airmass pushing PWATs into the 
1.7-1.9" range which is well above normal for this time of 
year. As the main cold front associated with an upper level low 
centered just south of James Bay pushes into the North Country 
on Thursday afternoon expect periods of moderate rainfall. All 
totaled we'll be looking at on the order of 0.75-1.2 inches of 
widespread rainfall which will be very beneficial given much of 
the area is still in drought status.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 401 AM EDT Tuesday...Over the weekend the big "highlight"
is that we'll be cooler on Friday into Saturday. The cooler 
temps should be cold enough that higher elevation locations 
should see a dusting of snow as an upper level trough brings a 
chance of showers/flurries depending on elevation both Saturday 
and Sunday. Saturday looks to be the coldest of the extended at 
850mb temps stay below zero for the forecast area and our high 
temps might struggle to warm above 49 degrees. Saturday night 
currently looks like we'll see widespread temps around freezing 
with the colder hollows in the upper 20s. Any snow will quickly 
be melted at warmer air pushes in overnight Sunday as our next 
low pressure system starts to approach the region.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Wide range of conditions over the next
24 hours as warm front lifts north across the area. In general,
cigs should range in the IFR/MVFR range through 12Z with
scattered showers affecting far northern terminals. Winds mainly south
to southwesterly in the 3-9 kt range at KMSS/KMPV/KPBG
(southeast at KRUT), though stronger from 10-20 kts at KBTV/KSLK
with occnl gusts to near 30 kts at KBTV. In areas that are not
gusty, southwesterly LLWS to 40 kts will be possible with areas
of low level turbulence. After 12Z cigs gradually trend to VFR
in most areas, though some lingering MVFR will persist at
KSLK/KMPV and possibly KRUT. Winds continue south to 
southwesterly in the 6-12 kt range, though gusts gradually abate
after 18Z.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night:  Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday:  NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here are record high temperatures for today, October 9.

Date	KBTV     KMPV     K1V4     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK 
10-09   80|2011  78|2011  79|2011  81|1997  81|1970  84|1909

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...JMG

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November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
January 2009, Week 5
January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
December 2008, Week 5
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December 2008, Week 3
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December 2008, Week 1
November 2008, Week 5
November 2008, Week 4
November 2008, Week 3
November 2008, Week 2
November 2008, Week 1
October 2008, Week 5
October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
January 2007, Week 4
January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
December 2006, Week 1
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November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
June 2006, Week 5
June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
May 2006, Week 4
May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
April 2006, Week 5
April 2006, Week 4
April 2006, Week 3
April 2006, Week 2
April 2006, Week 1
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March 2006, Week 4
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March 2006, Week 1
February 2006, Week 4
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February 2006, Week 2
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January 2006, Week 3
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January 2006, Week 1
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November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
October 2005, Week 5
October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
September 2005, Week 5
September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
August 2005, Week 4
August 2005, Week 3
August 2005, Week 2
August 2005, Week 1
July 2005, Week 5
July 2005, Week 4
July 2005, Week 3
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 4
June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
May 2005, Week 5
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May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
April 2005, Week 5
April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
January 2005, Week 5
January 2005, Week 4
January 2005, Week 3
January 2005, Week 2
January 2005, Week 1
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December 2004, Week 3
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November 2004, Week 2
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October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 3
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September 2004, Week 1
August 2004, Week 5
August 2004, Week 4
August 2004, Week 3
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August 2004, Week 1
July 2004, Week 5
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July 2004, Week 3
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July 2004, Week 1
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June 2004, Week 3
June 2004, Week 2
June 2004, Week 1
May 2004, Week 5
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May 2004, Week 3
May 2004, Week 2
May 2004, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 3
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April 2004, Week 1
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March 2004, Week 4
March 2004, Week 3
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February 2004, Week 5
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February 2004, Week 1
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January 2004, Week 4
January 2004, Week 3
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January 2004, Week 1
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December 2003, Week 4
December 2003, Week 3
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November 2003, Week 3
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November 2003, Week 1
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October 2003, Week 3
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March 2003, Week 3
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November 2002, Week 1
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October 2002, Week 3
October 2002, Week 2
October 2002, Week 1
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September 2002, Week 4
September 2002, Week 3
September 2002, Week 2
September 2002, Week 1
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August 2002, Week 3
August 2002, Week 2
August 2002, Week 1
July 2002, Week 5
July 2002, Week 4
July 2002, Week 3
July 2002, Week 2
July 2002, Week 1
June 2002, Week 5
June 2002, Week 4
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June 2002, Week 1
May 2002, Week 5
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May 2002, Week 2
May 2002, Week 1
April 2002, Week 5
April 2002, Week 4
April 2002, Week 3
April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
March 2002, Week 5
March 2002, Week 4
March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
December 2001, Week 5
December 2001, Week 4
December 2001, Week 3
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May 2001, Week 1
April 2001, Week 5
April 2001, Week 4
April 2001, Week 3
April 2001, Week 2
April 2001, Week 1
March 2001, Week 5
March 2001, Week 4
March 2001, Week 3
March 2001, Week 2
March 2001, Week 1
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February 2001, Week 2
February 2001, Week 1
January 2001, Week 5
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March 2000, Week 5
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February 2000, Week 2
February 2000, Week 1
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December 1999, Week 5
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December 1998, Week 5
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