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SKIVT-L  October 2018, Week 2

SKIVT-L October 2018, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 10 Oct 2018 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (261 lines)

Expires:201810102000;;947234
FPUS51 KBTV 100744
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
340 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018


VTZ006-102000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
340 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.TODAY...Partly sunny with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s. Southwest winds around 10 mph.
Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers until midnight, then
showers likely with patchy drizzle after midnight. Lows in the mid
50s. Light and variable winds, becoming south around 10 mph after
midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Rain. Highs in the lower 60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph
with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 40s. West winds
around 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs around 50. West winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 30s. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 50s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Rain showers likely. Lows in the upper 30s. Chance
of rain 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Rain showers likely. Highs in the upper 40s. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 

$$


Expires:201810101100;;955074
ASUS41 KBTV 101030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-101100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      70  64  81 S12       30.04S                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      69  64  84 SW9       30.11S                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      62  62 100 S3        30.05S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     59  59 100 MISG      30.05S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       63  62  97 SE3       30.09S VSB 1/4          
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      67  63  88 S3        30.09S                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    66  64  93 SE5       30.12S                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       57  57 100 CALM      30.11R VSB 1/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      68  65  90 S9        30.01F                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      64  64  99 SW7       30.04F                  
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    59  57  93 CALM      30.13F FOG              
ISLAND POND*     N/A     63 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     54 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     57 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     59 N/A N/A W26         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     66  64  94 S12G20      N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     64  63  94 SW16        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     66  64  94 SW6         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;948840
FXUS61 KBTV 100813
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
413 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm weather will continue today before a cold 
front backs south and west into the region this evening. 
Another, stronger cold front will cross the area on Thursday 
with a widespread, wetting rainfall expected. Behind this front,
much cooler and drier weather are expected by the upcoming 
weekend as Canadian high pressure settles into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 343 AM EDT Wednesday...Changeable weather remains in 
store for our region over the next 36 hours. As of early morning
we remain firmly in an unseasonably warm airmass on the 
northern periphery of deep subtropical ridging across the 
eastern third of the nation. Temperatures remain extremely mild 
by early October standards, running from the mid 60s to lower 
70s as of 300 am. The warm front that lifted through the region 
yesterday morning currently lies across southern ON/QE and 
eastward into northern Maine. Nearly all guidance continues to 
show this boundary sagging southward today in response to a 
passing shortwave trough to our distant north. Using a blend of 
WRF 4km and NAM 3km output suggests this boundary will push 
south and west into far northern counties later this afternoon, 
and into eastern VT this evening/tonight where it will stall. 
Areas across the Adirondacks, southern SLV and southwestern VT 
will likely remain to it's south and west. Hourly temperature 
trends and resultant 12-hr maxima will be tricky, though in 
general readings should climb to quite warm readings through 
early to mid afternoon before readings begin to fall sharply 
across the far north late. A few spots may once again near 
record territory as values in general top out from 72 to 78 with
a few spots nearing the 80F mark in the SLV/Champlain Valleys. 
Forcing for precipitation in most of the area will remain weak 
today, especially central/south. The highest threat of any 
showers and perhaps a widely scattered storm will occur across 
the far north in proximity to the approaching boundary, though 
even here only slight chance to chance values will be offered as
instability and forcing will be rather limited.

By tonight the aforementioned front backs into eastern VT while 
slowly lifting northward from the northern SLV/Champlain Valleys in 
response to deepening southerly flow ahead of a seasonably deep
longwave trough and stronger cold front marching east from the 
Great Lakes. Temperatures will once again be quite a challenge 
given the airmass change across the boundary. Temperatures in 
the 50s to lower 60s across the far northern SLV/Champlain 
Valleys to slowly moderate over time as the front lifts out. 
Meanwhile, readings fall into the 50s with some patchy drizzle 
possible in eastern VT as the eastern portions of the front 
backs westward with a maritime-modified airmass. Areas across 
far southwest VT into the Adirondacks remain mild in the 60s. 
Meanwhile, as the trough and surface front approach, 
precipitation chances ramp up sharply from west to east after 
midnight with a steady light rain evolving across western 
counties toward dawn on Thursday. As such likely to categorical 
PoPs will be maintained from east to west after 200 am 
accordingly.

By Thursday the main frontal boundary swings through the region with 
a widespread and wetting rainfall expected. Temperatures remain 
seasonably mild as low level flow trends south/southwesterly in all 
areas. Coolest readings are expected across eastern VT in the slowly 
eroding maritime airmass (upper 50s/lower 60s) with somewhat milder 
readings from the Champlain Valley west (mid 60s to around 70). As 
the front begins to push into far eastern counties later in the day 
a gradual decrease in precipitation coverage is expected across our 
far western counties by afternoon. 12-18 hr pcpn totals to generally 
average in the 0.50 to 0.75 inch range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 408 AM EDT Wednesday...Showers associated with a cold 
front will be exiting the area during the overnight hours 
Thursday night leading to the start of a cooler weekend. Winds 
will shift to out of the west ushering in a more normal airmass 
for this time of year. Clouds will remain mostly cloudy so 
Friday may be a bit of a dreary day.

Weak ridging builds in Friday night into the rest of the 
weekend as an upper level shortwave may bring some orographic 
showers through on Saturday. Sub 0C 850mb temps and continued 
colder air advection mean that some of those showers will be 
mixed with snow generally above 1500 feet. Temps will be below 
normal on Saturday with highs only in the 40s. The biggest 
question for the weekend will be how cold out overnight lows 
get. MOS is keying on temps generally in the upper 20s in the 
cold hollows and mid 30s elsewhere. I've trended that direction 
but with cloud cover we may not radiate all the way out. 
Saturday night will be the colder of the two nights as we'll be 
looking at freeze warnings for most of the region. Expect temps 
to be in the upper 20s to near freezing across most of the North
Country.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 408 AM EDT Wednesday...High pressure starts to break down
on Sunday as an upper level through digs through the Great 
Lakes. This will moderate temps and bring a chance for showers 
to start the workweek. In the higher terrain it should be cold 
enough for snow so its possible there could be some accumulating
snow but nothing significant.

High pressure briefly builds in Tuesday under southerly flow 
and then another round of showers sweeps through during the 
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...VFR conds expected through 18Z at all
terminals. Some patchy, though passing mid level cigs mainly in
the 050-100 AGL level expected during this time frame with south
to southwesterly flow from 3 to 8 kts expected (locally to 12 
kts at KBTV). After 18Z a cold front will drop southward into 
far northern counties and stall as cigs trend MVFR and winds 
trend light north to northeasterly at KMSS/KPBG/KBTV. A few 
light showers will be possible in the vicinity of this boundary.
Further south, winds remain light south/southwesterly at 
KRUT/KSLK/KMPV, though a gradual trend to MVFR cigs by 00Z or 
shortly thereafter is also expected. Some IFR possible at KMSS.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night:  NO SIG WX.
Sunday:  Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here are record high temperatures for today, October 10.

Date	KBTV     KMPV     K1V4     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK 
10-10   81|1909  80|1949  74|2017  80|1970  81|1955  82|1909

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...JMG

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
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