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SKIVT-L  October 2018, Week 2

SKIVT-L October 2018, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 8 Oct 2018 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (246 lines)

Expires:201810082000;;839526
FPUS51 KBTV 080720
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
317 AM EDT Mon Oct 8 2018


VTZ006-082000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
317 AM EDT Mon Oct 8 2018

.TODAY...Cloudy. A slight chance of showers this afternoon. Highs in
the mid 50s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 50s. South winds around 10 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Much
warmer. More humid with highs in the mid 70s. Southwest winds around
10 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Southwest
winds around 10 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Light and
variable winds. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows around 60. 
.THURSDAY...Showers. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of rain
90 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of rain
90 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the lower 50s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of rain showers.
Highs in the upper 40s. 

$$


Expires:201810081100;;847810
ASUS41 KBTV 081030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON OCT 08 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-081100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    49  45  86 N3        30.44S                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    45  45 100 N3        30.47S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    47  45  93 CALM      30.45S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     48  45  89 MISG      30.43R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    45  43  92 CALM      30.45S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    46  45  97 N3        30.43S FOG              
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    46  46 100 NW5       30.43S FOG              
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    50  50 100 CALM      30.43R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    45  43  94 CALM      30.46S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    43  43 100 NW3       30.46S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    51  48  89 CALM      30.40R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     45 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     45 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     43 N/A N/A E1          N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     45 N/A N/A S13         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     46  43  87 N1          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     50  45  81 N14         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     48  45  87 NW9         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;839599
FXUS61 KBTV 080725
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
325 AM EDT Mon Oct 8 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The cold front that slipped through the region yesterday will return 
northward as a warm front today with a few isolated showers possible 
along with temperatures warming back to seasonal normals and above. 
Well above normal temperatures are expected for tonight through 
Wednesday with mainly dry conditions as the front moves north of the 
area. Low pressure pulling northeast out the Great Lakes combined 
with remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Michael will bring a 
widespread moderate to heavy rain Thursday, followed by high 
pressure and cooler temperatures for Friday into next weekend..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Monday...Well, we promised a cool, raw day
yesterday, and we delivered. As expected the subsidence inversion
held tough and temps never made it out of the 50s for most areas
under low clouds and areas of drizzle. Those same conditions have
persisted into the overnight hours and unfortunately the low clouds
aren't going anywhere today. Fortunately though, the cold front
which was responsible for yesterdays horrible conditions will return
northward today as a warm front. So despite an abundance of
cloud cover, increasing southerly low/mid level flow will bring
temps up into the upper 50s to low 60s across the Adirondacks 
and Champlain Valley. Across eastern Vermont, temps will hold in
the 50s again as the flow remains more stable, and the same can
be said for the northern St. Lawrence Valley where northeast 
flow will hold temps in the upper 40s to low 50s. A passing 
shower is possible as the front moves through the region as 
well, but coverage will be very isolated.

For tonight, the forecast area will become entrenched in the warm
sector and a developing southwesterly 925mb jet of 35-45kts will
bring a non-diurnal trend to temps as lows in the 50s to low 60s
occur early in the evening and rise into the upper 50s east to
around 70 west by sunrise Tuesday. Overall through the night
conditions will remain largely dry, but along the international
border some weak energy riding along the front will allow for the
chance showers. As the front pulls even further north of the border
Tuesday, temperatures will climb further to near record values. Just
how warm we get is dependent on how much clearing we see which 
is very much in question. Thinking though that we'll see enough
breaks in the afternoon to realize some mixing close to 925mb 
which will support widespread highs in the 70s with locally mid 
70s to around 80 in the northern Champlain and St. Lawrence 
Valleys. Can't rule out an isolated shower either Tuesday with 
surface dewpoints climbing into the 60s producing SBCAPEs of 
400-800 J/kg, but forcing is minimal so really not expecting 
much in areal coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 308 AM EDT Monday...The forecast doesn't get any easier 
during the Tuesday night and Wednesday time frame as the warm 
front lifts just north of the region, and may in fact sag back 
southward into far northern counties during Wednesday. Varied 
model output shows this setup with highest probability of clouds
and a few showers north and drier with more partial sunshine 
further south. Mean 925 mb thermal progs remain quite warm by 
early October standards, so temperatures should remain quite 
mild Tuesday night with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Highs 
on Wednesday to remain mild to warm across central and southern 
counties (mid to upper 70s), though again tricky north 
depending on the eventual position of the front. For now have 
offered low confidence readings in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 308 AM EDT Monday...By Wednesday night clouds will 
thicken across the entire area as deep subtropical moisture 
plume rides northeast ahead of an advancing longwave trough 
across the central states into the Great Lakes. As such, PoPs 
will increase steadily later at night with a widespread rainfall
spreading into the western half of the forecast area by dawn 
Thursday. Lows to remain mild under modest southerly flow - 
upper 50s to lower 60s. 

Most inclement day of the 7-day forecast period to then occur on 
Thursday with widespread light to moderate rainfall expected. A deep 
PWAT axis of 1.75 to 2.0 inches will lift through the region ahead 
of the aforementioned longwave trough and attendant strong cold 
front. Good moisture convergence along the boundary and ample 
diffluence aloft all argue for high PoPs in the 80-100 percent 
range, most focused through the first half of the day west, and 
through late afternoon/early evening east. Despite continued 
southerly flow temperatures cool slightly given the clouds and 
rainfall - 60s to around 70 - still well above normal by 
early October standards however.

Thereafter, surface cold front clears east by Thursday evening 
setting the stage for much cooler temperatures and large-scale 
drying as seasonable Canadian airmass settles into the region. In 
general dry weather is expected for the Friday/Saturday time frame 
with partly cloudy skies and afternoon high temperatures from 45 to 
55. Areas of frost will be likely throughout much of the area, 
especially by Saturday night. The next chance of showery weather 
looks to occur by later Sunday into Sunday night with additional 
northern stream shortwave energy tracking into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06z Tuesday...Little change in flight conditions is
expected for the remainder of the overnight hours and into
Monday morning with LIFR/MVFR ceilings locked in place along
with areas of IFR/MVFR visibility in DZ/BR. After 12-14Z
forecast challenge will be timing when ceilings lift to MVFR.
Thinking the arrival of a southerly low level jet will mark the
change in flight conditions which likely won't be until after
16-18Z. When that happens expect ceilings to gradually lift to 
MVFR with winds locally gusting 10-20kts at KBTV and KPBG while 
some LLWS of 30-40kts around 2000 feet is likely at all other 
terminals.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Thursday Night:  Chance SHRA.
Friday:  NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Lahiff

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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January 2009, Week 4
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January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
December 2008, Week 5
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December 2008, Week 1
November 2008, Week 5
November 2008, Week 4
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October 2008, Week 5
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October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
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June 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
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February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
January 2007, Week 4
January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
December 2006, Week 1
November 2006, Week 5
November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
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October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
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August 2006, Week 5
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June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
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May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
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January 2006, Week 5
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January 2006, Week 1
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December 2005, Week 2
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November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
October 2005, Week 5
October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
September 2005, Week 5
September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
August 2005, Week 4
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August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
January 2005, Week 5
January 2005, Week 4
January 2005, Week 3
January 2005, Week 2
January 2005, Week 1
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December 2004, Week 3
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November 2004, Week 2
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October 2004, Week 5
October 2004, Week 4
October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 4
September 2004, Week 3
September 2004, Week 2
September 2004, Week 1
August 2004, Week 5
August 2004, Week 4
August 2004, Week 3
August 2004, Week 2
August 2004, Week 1
July 2004, Week 5
July 2004, Week 4
July 2004, Week 3
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July 2004, Week 1
June 2004, Week 5
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May 2004, Week 3
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June 2002, Week 5
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May 2002, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
March 2002, Week 5
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
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December 2001, Week 4
December 2001, Week 3
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December 2001, Week 1
November 2001, Week 5
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April 2001, Week 1
March 2001, Week 5
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March 2000, Week 5
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December 1999, Week 5
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June 1999, Week 3
June 1999, Week 2
June 1999, Week 1
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May 1999, Week 4
May 1999, Week 3
May 1999, Week 2
May 1999, Week 1
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April 1999, Week 1
March 1999, Week 5
March 1999, Week 4
March 1999, Week 3
March 1999, Week 2
March 1999, Week 1
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December 1998, Week 5
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