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SKIVT-L  November 2018, Week 1

SKIVT-L November 2018, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 4 Nov 2018 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (222 lines)

Expires:201811042100;;202763
FPUS51 KBTV 040745
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
241 AM EST Sun Nov 4 2018


VTZ006-042100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
242 AM EST Sun Nov 4 2018

.TODAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 40. Northwest winds 10 to
15 mph.
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear until midnight, then becoming partly cloudy.
Lows in the upper 20s. Light and variable winds, becoming southeast
around 10 mph after midnight.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a slight chance of rain showers in the
morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers in the
afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Chance of rain 50 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Rain showers likely. Lows in the upper 30s.
Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain
70 percent.
.TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 50s. Southeast winds
10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Chance of rain
70 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
around 50.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow
showers. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the
lower 40s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Highs around
40. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Rain or snow showers likely. Lows in the lower 30s.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
.SATURDAY...Snow showers likely or a chance of rain showers. Highs
in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

$$


Expires:201811041200;;212077
ASUS41 KBTV 041130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN NOV 04 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-041200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 39 25 57 NW13G21 30.42R WCI 31
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 34 27 75 NW10 30.39R WCI 26
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 35 26 69 VRB3 30.39R
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 36 27 69 MISG 30.35R
LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 33 25 74 W17 30.37R WCI 21
MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 32 30 90 NW5 30.42R WCI 28
RUTLAND* MOCLDY 36 25 64 CALM 30.41R
SPRINGFIELD FAIR 35 26 69 VRB3 30.40R
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 36 27 70 W6 30.43R WCI 31
NEWPORT* CLOUDY 33 26 75 W10 30.38R WCI 24
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 38 30 73 W6 30.42R
ISLAND POND* N/A 32 N/A N/A W9 N/A WCI 24
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 32 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 32 N/A N/A SW3 N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 21 N/A N/A CALM N/A

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 39 30 70 NW15G23 N/A WCI 31
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 39 28 65 NW20G25 N/A WCI 30
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 41 30 65 N5 N/A

$$


Expires:No;;212133
FXUS61 KBTV 041131
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
631 AM EST Sun Nov 4 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure today leads to a cool and quiet end of the
weekend. Heading into next week, a warming trend will take place
ahead of a pair of systems that will bring rain towards the
middle and end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 258 AM EST Sunday...Today looks to be a nice and dry day as a
high pressure ridge settles over the area. Skies will start mostly
cloudy early and clear throughout the day. Highs though, will
remain seasonably cool with low to mid 40s while Sunday night
lows will be near normal in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Monday starts to see warmer air move in as overall flow shifts
to the south ahead of a weakening upper level trough moving into
the Great Lakes region. This weakening system should bring some
light showers across the NY counties during the late morning
and afternoon hours, though the QPF looks to be 0.10" or less
throughout the day. Expect highs in the mid to upper 40s with
the valley locations even potentially hitting 50 depending on
daytime cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 418 AM EST Sunday...Upper and surface high have already
exited the area with SW flow ahead of deepening northern stream
shortwave. Surface warm front with warm air advection and moist
flow to possibly allow some showers during passage early.

Later Monday night and Tuesday morning...lull in activity in
developing warm sector as the main action on Tuesday is developing
negative tilt trough as secondary shortwave dives into the trof.
Surface low intensifies and becomes occluded with front advancing
into western FA by mid-late afternoon and across VT late aftn-
evening. Strong diffluent flow and shortwave rotating thru above
seasonably warm and somewhar unstable airmass (Showlater around 0)
with 500mb jet from SSW of 100 kts and 850 mb of 60+ kts immediate
along front could mean low-topped convection/fine-line scenario.

Meanwhile ahead of the front...strong inversion thus strongest winds
should stay mainly aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 418 AM EST Sunday...Occluded front should be passing
through eastern sections or exiting by Tuesday evening with
some strong gusty winds 925mb/850mb winds after FROPA in the
40+/50+ knots respectively as cold air advection allows for some
mixing...esp St. Lawrence Valley with channeled flow to boot.

Strong dryslot on the heels of front but strong energetic
cyclonic flow over eastern Great Lakes and gradual destabilizing
over the lakes should throw some rain showers on Wed downstream
into the Adirondacks and northern Greens on Wed-wed ngt. Highs
in the 40s/50s on Wed but cooling for some snow showers Wed ngt
with lows in 30s/40.

Somewhat flatter WSW flow on Thu with some shortwave ridging ahead
of next Northern Stream strong shortwave that dives across Great
Lakes Fri and then rotates across Northeast on Friday night.
Therefore largely dry on Thu and more seasonable with Highs in the M-
U40s.

ECMWF/GFS/GEM all differ on the eventual outcome and surface
features. GFS more aggressive with a weak primary in Great
Lakes and developing a fast ejecting weak low off the Mid-
Atlantic. GEM has a much weaker system in the Great Lakes
lifting NE while the ECMWF is much stronger with a secondary
developing late across New England by Sat morning. In all cases
its mild for rain and rain/showers should move through in the
late Fri-Sat mrng timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...VFR conditions at most TAF sites, with SLK
and MPV still seeing lingering MVFR ceilings for the next
couple of hours before clearing out after 14Z. After that, all
stations remain VFR for the rest of the period. Winds will be
westerly at 05-10 knots before going light and variable after
00Z.


Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 35 kt. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Verasamy
NEAR TERM...Verasamy
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Verasamy

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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