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SKIVT-L  November 2018, Week 1

SKIVT-L November 2018, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 6 Nov 2018 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (285 lines)

Expires:201811062100;;889979
FPUS51 KBTV 061058
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
555 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018


VTZ006-062100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
555 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018

.TODAY...Cloudy. A chance of showers this morning, then showers this
afternoon. Highs around 50. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts
up to 35 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers until midnight,
then partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers after midnight.
Lows in the mid 40s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs
around 50. West winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. West winds
10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 40s. West winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 30. 
.FRIDAY...Rain or a chance of snow. Little or no snow accumulation.
Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Rain. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of rain near
100 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Cloudy with a chance of snow or rain showers. Highs in
the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows in the lower 20s. 
.VETERANS DAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of snow or rain showers. Highs
in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. 

$$


Expires:201811061200;;891409
ASUS41 KBTV 061130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-061200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    44  42  93 S3        29.99F                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    39  39 100 CALM      30.06F FOG              
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    41  41 100 SE5       30.02F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     39  39 100 MISG      30.04F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       39  38  98 CALM      30.04S VSB 1/2          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    42  41  97 S5        29.98F                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    45  41  86 S12G18    30.00F                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    41  41 100 CALM      30.06S FOG              
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    42  42  99 CALM      29.98F                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    39  39 100 CALM      30.03S FOG              
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    50  42  74 VRB5      29.97F                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     39 N/A N/A N1          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     39 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     39 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     34 N/A N/A SE22        N/A  WCI  22          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     46  43  87 SE10        N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     46  45  93 S17         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     46  45  93 S10         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;891063
FXUS61 KBTV 061119
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
619 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
After a brief break in rain showers this overnight and early this 
morning, rainfall will return to the region as an occluded front 
tracks toward the region. Rainfall amounts will be highest on 
westwards slopes of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains while 
eastern slopes will get far less with downsloping winds expected. 
Gusty winds will develop during the afternoon with winds gusting in 
the 15 to 30 mph range except near 40 mph over the Saint Lawrence 
Valley. Rainfall will taper off this evening as moisture shifts 
eastward. The unsettled weather pattern observed over the past week 
or two looks to continue with a series of troughs and cold fronts 
pushing through the region. Expect near normal temperatures through 
Thursday and slightly below normal temperatures Friday and through 
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 612 AM EST Tuesday...Current forecast remains on track
with precipitation just entering the St. Lawrence Valley. Winds
will begin to ramp up shortly as the pressure gradient begins to
tighten with a surface low to our west and high pressure
situated to our east. Lowered rainfall totals once again for the
Champlain Valley as newest 06Z guidance is showing an even 
stronger downslope signal off the Adirondack Mountains.

Previous Discussion...While a few rain showers continue to 
persist across southern and central Vermont, much of New York 
has remained dry through the overnight period. Any lingering 
precip this morning is very light with just a hundreths or two 
reported at observation sites and is moving east of the area as 
it dissipates. This break in precipitation should be relatively 
short-lived with rainfall returning to the St. Lawrence Valley 
shortly after sunrise this morning as an occluded front 
approaches the region. Temperatures aloft have already begun to 
warm through the overnight hours with Whiteface at 37 degrees 
and Mt Mansfield currently at 34 degrees. This warm advection 
coupled with cloud cover has allowed temperatures to stay steady
overnight with several locations reporting increasing 
temperatures overnight.

Heading into this morning, a nice slug of moisture will track 
northeastward into southern New England but the main moisture axis 
will remain just to our south over Rhode Island, Connecticut and 
Massachusetts. The upper level trough that is helping to advect this 
warmer and wetter air mass will pivot just to our west throughout 
the day. This should leave us in a favorable region of upper level 
dynamics through the late morning and early afternoon hours across 
northern New York. While rainfall looks to overspread the entire 
North Country during the morning hours, it's quite difficult to get 
a handle on the actual rainfall amounts. This is attributed to a 
strong low-level jet situated between 1500 and 2000 ft. The 
southwesterly component of the jet tends to signal downsloping on 
the leeward (eastward in this case) side of higher terrain (like the 
Champlain Valley). 

With the main moisture axis a bit to our south, we lack the deep 
moisture needed to counter the drying effects of downsloping. Thus, 
have begun to decrease rainfall amounts over the Champlain Valley. 
There is a decent chance we get even less rainfall depending on just 
how strong the low level jet is as it crosses the Adirondacks and 
Green Mountains early this afternoon. With a core of stronger winds 
just above the surface, some of these stronger winds are bound to 
mix down to the surface. With warmer air advecting in aloft, a 
stable layer will develop just off the surface which will prevent 
the main core from mixing down. This will create gusty winds in the 
15 to 30 mph range for much of Vermont and northern New York. The 
strongest winds will be seen through the St. Lawrence Valley as the 
orientation of the valley will compliment the core of winds stronger 
aloft with wind gusts upwards to 40 to 45 mph today. These gusty 
winds will likely persist through Wednesday as the upper level jet 
continues to pivot across the North Country. 

Rainfall will largely taper off this evening as the front moves 
through and our moisture shifts eastward. However, additional 
showers are likely at higher elevations as what limited moisture 
available upslopes along the terrain. In addition, cooler air aloft 
will begin to filter in which will help steepen lapse rates which 
should produce a favorable environment for showers. At this time, 
temperatures should still be warm enough for any precipitation that 
falls (even at higher elevation) to stay rain heading through the 
day on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 408 AM EST Tuesday...Looking at a relatively quiet middle of
the week as the North Country will be in-between low pressure
systems. Generally dry conditions are forecast but cyclonic flow
from low pressure exiting northeast into the Canadian maritimes will
continue the threat for some lake effect rain/snow showers Wednesday
night into early Thursday. In addition, winds will remain gusty
Wednesday night with a strong pressure gradient over the region.
Strongest winds look to be in the westerly downslope areas of the
eastern Adirondacks with gusts up to 35 mph possible. By mid-day
Thursday though, weak ridging aloft and surface high pressure build
into the region with drier yet still cloudy conditions expected for
the remainder of the day. Temps through the period will b right
around normal for highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s, but well above
normal for lows in the mid 30s to around 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 408 AM EST Tuesday...The extended portion of the forecast for
the end of the work week into early next week will be largely
dominated by a broad longwave trough over the entire CONUS east of
the Sierras. As such, the pattern will remain rather active with the
most significant storm coming for Friday through Saturday as a sharp
shortwave trough lifts out of the Great Plains Friday and through
northern New England on Saturday. Deterministic guidance continues
to show a double-barrel low pressure system forms at the surface
Friday afternoon, spreading precipitation into the North Country
Friday night through Saturday morning. Soundings show ptype will be
mainly driven by boundary layer temperatures with support for valley
rain and mountain snow showers Friday afternoon and evening before
WAA potentially transitions frozen precipitation to a cold rain
Friday night. I say "potentially" because if the coastal low becomes
the primary low, soundings would likely be colder and support a
longer period of snow across the higher terrain. Currently, models
don't show this, but several days out from the event is a lot of
time for things to change.

Precipitation transitions to orographic snow showers Saturday
morning as the low/mid level flow veers to the west/northwest post
cold frontal passage, with some accumulations at the higher
elevations likely. A brief ridge of high pressure looks to build in
for Sunday before another low, albeit much weaker, looks to shift
northeast through the St. Lawrence Valley and renews the threat for
lake effect rain/snow showers on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Ceilings have been all over the place
overnight with stray MVFR to IFR decks situated under a thick
blanket of cirrus. The overall trend for today will be MVFR
conditions following the rainfall that is steadily working into
northern New York. Some localized IFR is possible, especially
in areas where heavier rain falls and reduces visibilities below
2 miles. KPBG and KBTV could be a bit tricky today as a strong
low level jet should downslope off the Adirondack Mountains and
produce some warming and drying across the aforementioned sites.
This will likely lead to periods of VFR conditions with ceilings
raising to around 5000 ft during the later morning and early
afternoon hours. Wind shear also remains tricky as winds should
be fairly gusty fairly early. Lulls in the winds are expected
periodically throughout the day and as the low level jet pivots
over the region, the wind direction at 2000 ft will shift from
SSE to SW. This wind shift aloft will provide the greatest
chances for wind shear and will likely occur between 16Z and
22Z. With the lack of confidence in timing, have neglected to
mention it in TAFs at the moment but will continue to monitor
throughout the day. 

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Definite RA, Chance SN.
Friday Night: MVFR. Definite RA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Clay

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
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September 2009, Week 3
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September 2009, Week 1
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August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
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July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
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June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
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May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
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March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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February 2009, Week 2
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September 2008, Week 3
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June 2008, Week 5
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June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 3
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February 2008, Week 1
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October 2007, Week 5
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October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
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August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
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August 2007, Week 1
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July 2007, Week 3
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July 2007, Week 1
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June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
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May 2007, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
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March 2005, Week 1
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