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SKIVT-L  November 2018, Week 1

SKIVT-L November 2018, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 3 Nov 2018 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (257 lines)

Expires:201811032000;;152773
FPUS51 KBTV 030722
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
319 AM EDT Sat Nov 3 2018


VTZ006-032000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
319 AM EDT Sat Nov 3 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
SUNDAY...

.TODAY...A chance of rain showers this morning, then rain or snow
this afternoon. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Breezy with
highs in the upper 40s. Light and variable winds, becoming west
20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph this afternoon. Chance of
precipitation near 100 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Cloudy. Rain or snow likely until midnight, then a slight
chance of snow showers after midnight. Additional snow accumulation
a dusting to 1 inch. Windy with lows in the upper 20s. West winds
20 to 30 mph. Gusts up to 60 mph, decreasing to 45 mph after
midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. West winds 15 to
20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph, becoming northwest around 10 mph
with gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. East winds
around 10 mph. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of rain showers.
Highs in the mid 40s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
25 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 30s. Chance of
rain 60 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of rain
90 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Showers. Highs in the lower 50s. Chance of rain
90 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of rain showers.
Highs in the lower 40s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of snow or rain
showers. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Rain or snow showers. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of
precipitation 80 percent. 

$$


Expires:201811031100;;160714
ASUS41 KBTV 031030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT NOV 03 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-031100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  44  42  93 NW7       29.60F FOG              
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  52  52 100 VRB6      29.62F                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    49  49 100 CALM      29.60F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     51  51 100 MISG      29.59F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT RAIN  50  50  98 S5        29.60S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    44  44  99 NE5       29.56F                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    55  52  89 SW9G20    29.54F                  
SPRINGFIELD    RAIN      53  53 100 CALM      29.61F FOG              
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    40  40 100 CALM      29.63S FOG              
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    49  49 100 CALM      29.60R                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      55  51  86 SW10      29.55F                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     48 N/A N/A E7          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     48 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     50 N/A N/A S1          N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     45 N/A N/A SE17        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     43  43 100 MISG        N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     43  43 100 N12         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     45  45 100 N13         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;157095
FXUS61 KBTV 030855
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
455 AM EDT Sat Nov 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Deepening low pressure will pull through New England today and 
into eastern Canada tonight with periods of rain and strong 
westerly winds. High pressure returns to the region with quieter
weather on Sunday into early Monday. Additional low pressure 
lifting through the Great Lakes will bring the next chance of 
rainfall to the area by the middle of next week with gusty 
south winds returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 351 AM EDT Saturday...Steady rainfall, occasionally 
moderate continues across the eastern half of the forecast area 
early this morning in response to developing low pressure over 
extreme southern New York/southwest New England. This low will 
deepen rapidly as it lifts quickly into northern Maine later 
today and into eastern Canada tonight. As this occurs, backside 
deformational processes associated with a negatively tilting 
upper trough will allow steadier rains to reblossom across 
northern NY later this morning before spreading into VT by this 
afternoon. Cooling thermal profiles aloft should allow a 
transition to snow or a rain/snow mix above 1000 ft in northern 
NY later this afternoon, and into VT by early evening before 
tapering off. Some minor, nuisance-type accumulations generally 
from a few tenths to perhaps 2 inches will be possible in 
favored elevated terrain through 800 pm. Of more concern will be
a strong sting-type westerly jet developing on the backside of 
the deepening low as p-grad tightens and isallobaric flow 
increases markedly. After thorough perusal of various model 
sounding profiles and 1000-850 mean flow I've expanded our Wind 
Advisory to include southern Franklin County in northern NY and 
most of eastern VT. In these areas sustained downslope west 
winds from 25 to 35 mph will be possible with occasional gusts 
into the 40 to 55 mph range this afternoon into the evening 
hours. Elsewhere (Champlain/St. Lawrence Valleys, etc.) winds 
will be a bit lighter, though gusts should still top out in the 
25 to 40 mph range. In areas of strongest winds expect scattered
tree/limb damage and isolated to scattered power outages. High 
temperatures should occur around midday before levelling off or 
slowly falling in the westerly flow this afternoon - generally 
40s with a few lower 50s possible in eastern VT.

By tonight gusty west flow abates through time as the deep surface 
low pulls away into eastern QE and is gradually replaced by high 
pressure bridging east from the Ohio Valley states. Any 
lingering rain/snow shower activity to end over time. Clouds 
will likely hang tough across the northern mountains a good part of 
the night, though will tend to scatter out in the broader valleys 
and southern VT. Low temperatures are a blend of bias-corrected 
guidance showing values bottoming out in the upper 20s to mid 30s in 
most spots. The aforementioned surface high then builds atop the 
region during Sunday with a partly to mostly sunny day expected and 
light winds. Temperatures will remain seasonably cool (40s), though 
given the partial sunshine and light winds most folks will find 
sensible conditions quite nice for early November.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 453 AM EDT Saturday...Strong ridging will be in place
across the northeast, but shifts eastward as a weakening trough
and associated surface low near the Great Lakes moves northward
into the CWA by Monday afternoon. Cool and dry conditions with
overnight lows in the 20s and low 30s will give way to increased
cloud cover and temperatures in the 40s with some valley
locations even pushing 50. Precipitation will be slow to move in
with showers moving in the afternoon hours across NY, but don't
look to reach VT until later in the evening as the retreating
dry air will be slow to push out.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 453 AM EDT Saturday...Precipitation continues as low 
pressure across the Great Lakes continues its northward 
progression Monday night. The low will track to the west of the
CWA with the core of the deep level moisture mainly across the 
NY counties early on Tuesday before shifting across VT during 
the afternoon hours. The strong warm air advection associated 
with the system looks to bring in some of the warmer temps we've
seen the last couple of weeks, with highs in the 50s both 
Tuesday as well as Wednesday, with some valley locations even 
pushing low 60s. 

Right now cloud cover and timing of the cold front passing
during the Wednesday will factor greatly into how warm
temperatures get. Another potential impact will be a low-level
jet before the front arrives, and then another round of strong
winds along the St. Lawrence Valley after the front passes.
Brisk winds will be likely, and we will continue to monitor.
Beyond this point, a dry and seasonable air mass settles in
through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Widespread IFR/LIFR expected through 18Z
with brief periods of MVFR possible as deepening low pressure
lifts through New England. Steady rains, briefly moderate to
heavy through 10Z to affect KPBG and VT terminals with only VCSH
at KSLK/KMSS. Winds generally light in this period. After a 
small window of scattered showers in the 10-14Z time frame, 
steadier rains move back into the area from 14-00Z as the back 
side of the low pressure sweeps into the area. Cigs gradually 
improve to IFR/MVFR from 18-00Z, then trend toward VFR at most 
terminals by the end of the forecast cycle as pcpn ends. Most 
problematic will be strong and gusty west winds developing this
afternoon/early evening. Westerly gusts from 35-45 kts from
250-280 deg. look quite reasonable per most recent hi-res model
output. This will lead to crosswind concerns at many terminals,
esp KBTV and KPBG. Moderate to locally severe low level 
turbulence will also be possible, especially in vicinity of 
higher terrain. Winds to abate from 03Z onward as the low pulls
further away.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory from 2 PM EDT this afternoon to 1 AM EST Sunday 
     for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-018-019.
NY...Wind Advisory from 2 PM EDT this afternoon to 1 AM EST Sunday 
     for NYZ030-031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Verasamy
LONG TERM...Verasamy
AVIATION...JMG

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