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SKIVT-L  November 2018, Week 1

SKIVT-L November 2018, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 2 Nov 2018 06:50:01 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (265 lines)

Expires:201811022000;;101696
FPUS51 KBTV 020732
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
329 AM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018


VTZ006-022000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
329 AM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

.TODAY...Rain, mainly this morning. Highs in the upper 50s. South
winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.TONIGHT...A chance of rain until midnight, then rain likely after
midnight. Lows in the mid 40s. Light and variable winds. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Rain in the morning, then rain showers in the afternoon.
Highs in the upper 40s. Light and variable winds, becoming northwest
15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph in the afternoon. Chance of
rain 90 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Rain showers likely or a chance of snow showers.
Little or no snow accumulation. Breezy with lows in the upper 20s.
West winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. Northwest winds
10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows around 40. Chance of rain
60 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain
60 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Rain. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of rain
80 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Rain. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance of rain
80 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows around 40. Chance of rain
60 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 40s. 

$$


Expires:201811021100;;109003
ASUS41 KBTV 021030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI NOV 02 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-021100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  46  44  93 S3        29.63F                  
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  47  47 100 SW6       29.68F                  
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  43  43 100 CALM      29.66F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     44  44 100 MISG      29.66F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   DRIZZLE   43  43  98 SE5       29.68F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    RAIN      44  43  99 CALM      29.63S                  
RUTLAND*       LGT RAIN  52  50  93 SE13      29.63F                  
SPRINGFIELD    LGT RAIN  46  46 100 CALM      29.69F FOG              
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    42  42 100 NE3       29.64F                  
NEWPORT*       LGT RAIN  40  40 100 N5        29.66F                  
BENNINGTON     LGT RAIN  66  59  78 S23G29    29.62F                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     43 N/A N/A E2          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     43 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     41 N/A N/A N1          N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     43 N/A N/A S24G36      N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     43  43 100 NE1         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     45  45 100 NW12        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     46  45  93 NW2         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;101403
FXUS61 KBTV 020718
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
318 AM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern continues through the weekend as a 
deepening low pressure system tracks along a stalled frontal 
boundary. Expect periods of light to moderate rain both today 
and Saturday with winds increasing Saturday afternoon into 
Saturday evening out of the west. Winds could become quite gusty
into Saturday evening. Sunday and Monday will be fairly nice 
days as high pressure allows for some sunshine across the North 
Country before clouds quickly return with unsettled weather for
the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 311 AM EDT Friday...Steady rain is the theme for the rest
of the evening. Strong mid level f-gen will keep plenty of 
clouds and light rain in through the morning before a synoptic 
dry slot pushes into across central Vermont and most areas see a
brief break in precip. Latest 3 hour pressure changes are 
highest over northern New York and so I think we'll see the low 
actually track just north of the Adirondacks instead of pushing 
right into the Champlain Valley. That points to a fairly 
difficult temperature forecast with some high bust potential. 
With the low forecast to be slightly further north that would 
mean that much of Vermont and southern Adirondacks get into some
strong warm air advection in the dry slot. So I've raised temps
in the Champlain Valley and across central and southern Vermont
into the upper 50s to mid 60s while holding the Saint Lawrence 
Valley and just north of the Adirondacks in the mid 40s. I think
we'll only see a brief window into those warmer temps before 
the northerly flow kicks in and the front starts pushing back 
south. The overnight lows should stay fairly mild as the front 
isn't that strong. Expect temps in the mid 40s to even some 50s 
across south eastern Vermont.

The second challenge to the forecast will be on Saturday as a 
second short wave rounds the based of a rapidly deepening 
negatively tilted cyclone. We should see a pretty good dump of 
rainfall through mid day as the upper level trough swings 
through New England. The surface low rapidly deepens on 
Saturday from a 1000mb low to 998mb in 6 hours and as that does 
the winds aloft quickly increase out of the west to northwest. 
I've increased winds and wind gusts fairly substantially heading
into the evening hours and there's certainly some potential for
some stronger downsloping wind gusts of 35-45kts on the eastern
downslope side of both the Adirondacks and the Greens. We'll be
watching the how the evolution of the low develops for 
potential of a wind advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 256 AM EDT Friday...Any lingering rain/snow shower 
activity to then end Saturday evening as deep surface low pulls 
away into the Maritimes and building high pressure advects east 
from the Ohio Valley. Clouds should hold tough for a good part 
the night under diminishing west/northwesterly flow, though 
should tend to scatter out late. Lows to generally range from 
the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Aforementioned strengthening surface high then bridges atop the 
region for Sunday with partly to mostly sunny skies, light winds and 
seasonably cool temperatures. This will definitely be the better day 
of the upcoming weekend as high temperatures range through the
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 256 AM EDT Friday...Looking further out our active fall 
weather pattern looks to continue into next week. We should be 
able to squeeze out another decent day on Monday as the surface 
high slides east and south return flow trends modestly gusty. 
This will herald the start of a 48-hr period of milder weather 
with afternoon highs topping out from the mid 40s to lower 50s. 
A weak shortwave embedded within this deepening flow is progged 
to track into the region toward Monday evening and especially 
Monday night with a few showers. Dynamical forcing with this 
system is rather weak, driven mainly by warm advective processes
and not a discrete vorticity center. As such, PoPs will 
generally be kept in the chance category.

Thereafter, global models have largely trended toward a common 
solution in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame showing a deepening 
Midwestern cyclone tracking north-northeastward through the Great 
Lakes. As the synoptic background flow amplifies we'll transition 
into the warm sector of this system with broad south/southwesterly 
flow continuing and temperatures moderating considerably. Indeed, a 
quick look at most recent MOS-guidance supports modeled 925-850
mb thermal progs showing readings climbing well into the 50s to
lower 60s for highs during this period. With the more amplified
flow, steadiest precipitation associated with the cyclone 
should become more focused along it's associated cold front. As 
this time range timing subtleties with the frontal position 
among the various models always provide some level of 
uncertainty. However, it appears the most focused period of 
rainfall should occur Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. 
Behind the front temperatures gradually cool into Thursday as 
flow trends more west/southwesterly and conditions trend drier 
outside some lake effect response off Lake Ontario.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Expect a mix of flight conditions 
generally IFR/low MVFR as widespread low ceilings and rain 
prevail for the rest of the overnight hours. A dry slot will 
push into the region midday increasing the ceilings to MVFR/VFR 
through much of the day before ceilings lower again as another 
system brings more light to moderate rainfall. The exception is 
for MSS where the front stays south of the Saint Lawrence valley
leading to IFR ceilings through the entire TAF period with 
northeast 10-15 knots of channeled flow. Elsewhere winds will 
generally be light and out of the south to southwest before 
shifting to northerly late Friday evening.

Outlook...

Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely RA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The combination of several waves of moderate to at times heavy 
rainfall will see modest rises in main stem rivers especially 
across central and southern Vermont where antecedent conditions 
are fairly wet. Being that its late in the season there isn't 
much in the way of vegetation that will be able to absorb the 
1-3 inches of rainfall. So much of the rain that falls will 
runoff into streams and rivers. The small streams should be able
to release the precip that falls into main stem rivers fast 
enough to not see any flooding but there's some potential for the
Ausable river at Au Sable Forks and the Otter Creek at Center 
Rutland to rise to near flood stage. At this time flooding is not 
forecast and rises on the rivers will be highly dependent on where
the most significant rain falls.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Deal
HYDROLOGY...Deal

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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