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SKIVT-L  November 2018, Week 3

SKIVT-L November 2018, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 17 Nov 2018 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (220 lines)

Expires:201811172100;;437784
FPUS51 KBTV 171125
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
622 AM EST Sat Nov 17 2018


VTZ006-172100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
622 AM EST Sat Nov 17 2018

.TODAY...Partly sunny with isolated snow showers this morning, then
mostly cloudy with scattered snow or rain showers this afternoon.
Highs in the mid 30s. West winds around 10 mph with gusts up to
30 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers until
midnight, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 15.
Northwest winds around 10 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph until midnight.
Chance of snow 40 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 20s. Light and variable
winds. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 19. South winds around
10 mph. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 30s. Light and variable
winds. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows 15 to 20. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the mid 20s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Colder with lows 5 to 10 above. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the lower 20s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Cold with lows around 10 above. 
.THANKSGIVING DAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 20s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Cold with lows around 10 above. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s. 

$$


Expires:201811171200;;438057
ASUS41 KBTV 171130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SAT NOV 17 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-171200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    39  32  76 W6        29.91R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    33  31  92 CALM      29.90R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    34  32  92 CALM      29.88R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     31  31 100 MISG      29.86R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT RAIN  33  30  89 SW8         N/A  WCI  26          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    34  32  94 CALM      29.93R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    36  32  85 W6        29.93R WCI  31          
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    39  30  70 VRB7      29.91R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    32  32 100 CALM      29.91R FOG              
NEWPORT*       LGT SNOW  32  31  96 W12       29.85R WCI  23          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    36  31  82 SW7       29.97R WCI  30          
ISLAND POND*     N/A     32 N/A N/A NW5         N/A  WCI  27          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     32 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     32 N/A N/A N6          N/A  WCI  26          
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     27 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     39  32  75 W9G15       N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     41  32  70 W7          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     41  34  75 W3          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;437716
FXUS61 KBTV 171124
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
624 AM EST Sat Nov 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level shortwave will continue to track across the 
region today bringing isolated to scattered light mountain snow 
showers as a cold front sags south out of Canada. Quiet weather 
returns along with below normal temperatures through the 
Thanksgiving holiday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 622 AM EST Saturday...After a busy couple of days we're 
trending much less active for the weekend. An upper level trough
will swing across the region today sagging a shallow surface 
front through the North Country this afternoon. Scatted mountain
snow showers will be prevalent for much of the day before 
tapering off this evening. Its not out of the question that we 
see some snow squalls develop with that cold front as the 
thermal gradient is pretty sharp. Model soundings show fairly 
steep lapse rates and decent instability so its possible some 
of the showers could develop into brief heavy snow squalls with 
significant reduction in visibilities. Expect plenty of mid and 
low level clouds through the day today with some modestly gusty 
winds in northern New York. High pressure will build in across 
New England and we'll see highs only in the mid 30s today and 
rather chilly Sunday behind the cold front. Expect highs only in
the mid to upper 20s. Lows this evening should fall to the 
teens to near 20 in the valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 401 AM EST Saturday...Relatively quiet weather with 
continued below normal temperatures for the short-term period. A
modest 700-500mb positive tilt trough passes thru the srn tier 
of New York into central New England during Sunday night. This 
system may spread some light stratiform snowfall northward into 
s-central VT, but mainly looking at mostly cloudy to cloudy 
conditions across the srn half of the CWA, with little or no 
precipitation expected. Limited PoPs to near 20%. Overnight lows
will range from mid-20s for Rutland/Windsor counties, to the 
upper teens and lower 20s across the north. 

Generally dry Monday/Monday night, though weakly cyclonic 
850-700mb flow may generate a few snow showers associated with 
moisture advection from the ern Great Lakes, especially across 
nrn NY. Temperatures are expected to reach the low-mid 30s on 
Monday, with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s for Monday 
night under variably cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 401 AM EST Saturday...Amplification of upper ridge across
the Pacific NW into British Columbia will result in an active 
northern branch jet stream and a NW flow pattern across south- 
central Canada into the nern CONUS thru the long-term forecast 
period. Moisture will be limited with these continental 
systems/embedded shortwave troughs, but anticipate periods of 
snow showers during the day Tuesday, and again on 
Wednesday/Wednesday evening. The Wednesday system - in both the 
00Z GFS and ECMWF - is associated with a more well-defined 
arctic boundary and digging upper level trough. May see some 
more widespread snow showers or possible snow squalls along the 
arctic front as it passes from west-to-east across nrn NY and 
VT...likely Wednesday aftn/eve based on latest indications. 
Overall pattern will keep daytime temperatures well below 
normal, with highs mainly in the upper 20s for Tuesday and 
Wednesday, and potentially only in the low-mid 20s for 
Thanksgiving Day, with a chance of flurries and wind chill 
readings in the single digits above zero. In fact, the 00Z 
ECMWF-MOS for BTV indicates a high of just 20F for Thanksgiving 
Day (22F on the GFS-MOS). High pressure brings lighter winds and
continued cold for Thursday night into Friday, though temps 
should moderate slightly into the upr 20s to near 30F on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Expect generally MVFR to low VFR improving
to VFR at all sites this morning. The exception is at SLK where
1000 foot ceilings will hold on through the morning gradually
lifting to 2000-2500 feet. Expect prevailing VFR visibilities 
with perhaps some brief MVFR or IFR in mountain snow showers. 
Winds will generally be 5-10 knots out of the west with 
occasional gusts to 20kts over northern New York through the TAF
period. Scattered snow showers are possible along the 
international border in the afternoon today as a surface front 
pushes south. Some snow squalls may develop near the northern 
TAF sites which could produce short windows of LIFR.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Deal

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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