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SKIVT-L  November 2018, Week 3

SKIVT-L November 2018, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 21 Nov 2018 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (262 lines)

Expires:201811212100;;632704
FPUS51 KBTV 211135
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
632 AM EST Wed Nov 21 2018


VTZ006-212100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
632 AM EST Wed Nov 21 2018

.TODAY...Cloudy. A chance of snow showers this morning, then snow
showers likely with possible snow squalls likely this afternoon.
Snow may be heavy at times this afternoon. Total snow accumulation
of 2 to 4 inches. Highs in the upper 20s. Southwest winds around
10 mph, becoming west with gusts up to 25 mph this afternoon. Chance
of snow 70 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow showers, mainly until
midnight. Much colder with lows around 3 above. Northwest winds
10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of snow 50 percent. 
.THANKSGIVING DAY...Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow
showers in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs
around 12. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
Chance of snow 20 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Cold with lows around zero.
Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 20s. Light and variable
winds. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 10 above. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Snow or rain likely. Lows around 30. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers. Highs
in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows around 30. 
.MONDAY...Cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers. Highs in the
upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Snow or rain likely. Lows around 30. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Snow likely or a chance of rain. Highs in the mid 30s.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 

$$


Expires:201811211200;;632521
ASUS41 KBTV 211130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST WED NOV 21 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-211200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    26  16  65 S6        29.90F WCI  19          
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    23  17  78 SW8       29.90F WCI  14          
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    23  18  81 SW6       29.89S WCI  16          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     20  18  92 MISG      29.88F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    18  16  92 S3          N/A                   
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    25  19  76 CALM      29.91F                  
RUTLAND*       FLURRIES  24  23  96 CALM      29.92F                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    23  23 100 CALM      29.93S                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    19  17  91 SE5       29.88F WCI  12          
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    21  15  76 S7        29.86F WCI  13          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    29  20  69 SW5       29.94F WCI  24          
ISLAND POND*     N/A     19 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     18 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     19 N/A N/A SW3         N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     12 N/A N/A W29         N/A  WCI  -9          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     30  19  64 SW13G20     N/A  WCI  20          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     30  18  59 SW14        N/A  WCI  20          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     28  23  80 SE12        N/A  WCI  18          

$$


Expires:No;;633007
FXUS61 KBTV 211142
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
642 AM EST Wed Nov 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong arctic cold front will sweep across the area today
bringing snow showers and snow squalls along with falling 
temperatures behind the front. Very cold and blustery weather 
is expected for the Thanksgiving Holiday with temperatures at
least 20 to 25 degrees below normal for this time of year. A
warming trend takes place over the weekend and the chances for
precipitation will increase as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 642 AM EST Wednesday...Going forecast in good shape and 
no changes needed at this time. Bottom line...snow squalls to 
have an impact on the area today followed by unseasonably cold 
temperatures tonight and on Thanksgiving.

Conditions remain favorable for snow squalls during the mid to
late morning hours across northern New York and during the early
to mid afternoon hours across Vermont. Expect quick bursts of
heavy snow with the squalls...1 to 2 inches of snow in a very
short period of time...along with visibilities under a mile.
This will likely cause travel impacts especially since it is a
big travel day. Will issue a special weather statement
highlighting this threat today.

Local snow squall parameter continues to highlight our area for
the snow squalls. Instability develops ahead of the strong cold
front as dry adiabatic lapse rates develop from the surface to
at least 700 mb. Shortwave trough moving across the international
border will enhance synoptic scale lift over the region to
increase the threat of precipitation. Frontogenetic forcing and
best surface pressure rise/fall couplet is also concentrated up
near the Canadian Border and feel the best chances for snow 
squalls will be over northern New York and the northern half of 
Vermont later this morning through mid afternoon.

Flow aloft becomes northwest tonight and any precipitation will
become confined to the mountains in response to the flow
pattern. Strong cold air advection takes place tonight right
through Thanksgiving as 850 millibar temperatures as low as
minus 25C moves into the region. These temperatures are 3-4
standard deviations from normal indicating we will be dealing
with a very cold air mass. Lows tonight will be in the single
digits above and below and highs on Thanksgiving will only be in
the single digits and teens...which will be at least 25 degrees
below normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 327 AM EST Wednesday...Very cold and dry weather is 
expected for Thursday night and Friday with Canadian high 
pressure still over our area. We will also have upper level 
ridging over us. Winds will be lighter Thursday night than 
Wednesday night, therefore not expecting any wind chill issues. 
Minimum and maximum temperatures will be about twenty to twenty 
five degrees below seasonal normals, though not quite as cold as
Wednesday night and Thursday. High pressure begins to slide 
eastward and gradual warming trend will be underway.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 327 AM EST Wednesday...Upper level ridge will crest over 
the area Saturday morning, and return Southwesterly flow will 
increase as surface high slides eastward and away from the area.
During the day Saturday we'll have increasing clouds and 
moisture moving in from the southwest ahead of next approaching 
low and fronts. One low will move across the Great Lakes area, 
while a second low tracks from the Carolina coast towards the 
New England coast Saturday night. Will see widespread light rain
and snow from later Saturday through early Sunday morning. 
Precipitation ends on Sunday, then next low pressure system 
tracks through the Ohio river valley, with another mix of 
precipitation types for Monday and Monday night. An upper level 
low will trail behind this system, and keep the region wet 
through the middle part of next week. Temperatures will return 
to near seasonal normals during the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...A strong cold front will move across the
area between 12z and 20z. Expecting a two hour window at each 
TAF site where snow squalls could be an impact as visibilities 
lower to at least the IFR category with bursts of heavier snow. 
Ceilings will also lower into the MVFR/IFR categories with the 
snow squalls. Winds will be light and variable early this 
morning...then pick up from the south and southwest after 
12z...but will be shifting to the west and northwest between 16z
and 20z with the passage of the front. Winds will also become 
gusty with speeds in the 15 to 25 knot range behind the front. 
Ceilings will improve into the MVFR and VFR categories behind 
the front and visibilities will return to the VFR category.

Outlook...

Thanksgiving Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Chance RA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible.
Likely RA, Likely SN.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The record low max temperature for Burlington for Thanksgiving Day
is 19 degrees, set on Thanksgiving Day (November 24th) 1938.

Below are some daily climate records for November 22nd and 
23rd.

November 22nd:

        Record Low Daily Max  /  Record Low Daily Min

Burlington:     22 (2008)     /     3 (1969)                
Plattsburgh:    24 (2008)     /     6 (1972)
Montpelier:     18 (2008)     /     2 (1964)
St. Johnsbury:  22 (2008)     /    12 (2014)
Saranac Lake:   10 (1987)     /    -2 (2000)
Massena:        22 (1989)     /     0 (1972)


November 23rd:

        Record Low Daily Max  /  Record Low Daily Min

Burlington:     20 (1914)     /     2 (1972)                
Plattsburgh:    23 (1989)     /     6 (2000)
Montpelier:     21 (2000)     /    -1 (1972)
St. Johnsbury:  22 (2000)     /     7 (2000)
Saranac Lake:   18 (2000)     /   -11 (1932) 
Massena:        18 (2008) /         0 (2000)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Evenson
CLIMATE...RSD

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