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SKIVT-L  November 2018, Week 3

SKIVT-L November 2018, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 16 Nov 2018 06:50:01 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (260 lines)

Expires:201811162100;;387853
FPUS51 KBTV 161119
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
616 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018


VTZ006-162100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
616 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...Snow, mainly this morning. Additional snow accumulation of
2 to 4 inches. Highs around 30. Northeast winds around 10 mph this
morning, becoming light and variable. Chance of snow near
100 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Snow showers. Additional snow accumulation a dusting to
2 inches. Lows in the upper 20s. West winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of
snow 90 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly
cloudy. A chance of snow or rain showers. Highs in the mid 30s. West
winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 19. West winds around 10 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 20s. Light and variable
winds. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of light
snow. Lows around 20. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the lower 30s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 10 above. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the mid 20s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Cold with lows around 5 above. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs around 20. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Cold with lows around 10 above. 
.THANKSGIVING DAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Highs in the upper 20s. 

$$


Expires:201811161200;;388263
ASUS41 KBTV 161130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-161200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT SNOW  25  22  88 N8        29.81F FOG     WCI  16  
MONTPELIER     LGT SNOW  21  21 100 NW3       29.78F FOG              
MORRISVILLE    LGT SNOW  22  20  92 N5        29.80F FOG     WCI  16  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     22  20  92 MISG      29.78F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FLURRIES  23  20  86 N14       29.77  WCI  11          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    26  23  89 N8        29.76F WCI  18          
RUTLAND*       FLURRIES  27  24  89 CALM      29.69F                  
SPRINGFIELD    LGT SNOW  26  24  92 CALM      29.74F FOG              
HIGHGATE*      LGT SNOW  24  23  96 E7        29.84F WCI  16          
NEWPORT*       LGT SNOW  20  19  97 N8        29.82F WCI  10          
BENNINGTON     MIX PCPN  36  25  64 E14G24    29.60F WCI  27          
ISLAND POND*     N/A     21 N/A N/A NE1         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     21 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     19 N/A N/A NE7         N/A  WCI  10          
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     16 N/A N/A E26G40      N/A  WCI  -3          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     27  27 100 N1          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     28  28 100 E15         N/A  WCI  17          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     30  30 100 N18         N/A  WCI  18          

$$


Expires:No;;381722
FXUS61 KBTV 160902
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
402 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A winter storm will continue to produce periods of moderate to 
heavy snow this morning with widespread 5 to 10 inches expected.
The snow will become showery by mid afternoon with another 1 to
3 inches of snow possible through the Saturday. Expect quiet 
weather to return Sunday with well below normal temperatures 
through Thanksgiving and a couple chances for some light 
precipitation through beginning of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 356 AM EST Friday...Latest obs and composite radar point 
a picture of widespread moderate to heavy snow. The strongly 
forced fgen meso band is currently starting lift into the 
northern Champlain Valley and we're well on our way to see 1 to 
1.5" and hour rates for the next 3-5 hours. The deformation axis
clearly shows up on radar and we expect it will start to pivot 
back through Vermont near daybreak. This will lead to widespread
snowfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches just before the morning 
commute on top of the 2-4 already on the ground. Caution is 
certainly advised to any commuters this morning and we urge you 
to take extra time.

All hazards remain in place and snow totals have been bumped up
across the axis from the Adirondacks through the Champlain 
Valley into the Northeast Kingdom by an inch or 2 given the 
placement of the mesoband. Its quite rare that we end up with 
the band pivoting through the Champlain Valley so its quite a 
sight to see. Normally this type band would be further to the 
south as the low pressure system starts to pivot and peel away. 
All totaled we should see 6-10 inches along the axis from the 
Adirondacks through the Northeast Kingdom with locally higher 
totals possible. Across southern Vermont the warm nose and dry 
air are mixing in aloft and we've gotten some MPING reports of 
sleet and freezing rain mixing in. So that limits total 
accumulation across Rutland/Windsor to around 3-6 inches. Across
the Saint Lawrence valley expect totals will vary quite a bit 
with with southwestern Saint Lawrence doing quite well with some
lake enhancement as the meso band just skirts east while up 
near Massena light snow ends up leading to 3-5 inches of snow.

Snow will taper off rapidly by mid morning although a second 
upper level trough currently over the Great Lakes will push into
the North Country. That second upper level trough should bring  
a reinvigorating shot northwest flow and thus some additional 
upslope snow. Froude numbers indicate we'll be blocked through 
Friday night so it wouldn't surprise me to see the western 
slopes continue to pick up snow especially towards Jay Peak.

Highs today will be in the low 30s with a warming trend expected
by mid afternoon. Expect temps to warm through much of the 
night with out evening lows being set between 00-02Z and then 
temps will warm Saturday into the upper 30s to near 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 341 AM EST Friday...Surface high pressure builds ewd from
the Great Lakes region Saturday night into Sunday, allowing any
lingering snow showers to wind down early Saturday night. 
Lingering clouds are likely, especially during the first half of
the night, with high RH trapped beneath increasing subsidence 
inversion 875-850mb layer, per 00Z NAM forecast soundings. May 
see some partial clearing and better radiational cooling late, 
especially with fresh snowpack. Thus, looking at lows ranging 
from the mid-upper teens for the Adirondacks and St. Lawrence 
Valleys, as well as n-central into nern VT. In the Champlain 
Valley and CT River Valley, lows in the lower 20s are expected. 

Sfc anticyclone crests over the region Sunday with light winds and 
tranquil/partly sunny conditions. Below normal temps continue, with 
highs generally in the upper 20s to around freezing. 

A modest 700-500mb positive tilt trough passes thru the srn tier of 
New York into New England during Sunday night, and may spread some 
light stratiform snowfall northward into our region. Kept highest 
PoPs (around 60%) across the Adirondacks into Rutland/Windsor 
counties in VT, with generally 30-50% Sunday night across central 
and nrn areas. Potential exists for some light/fluffy snow 
accumulation, generally 1" or less.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 341 AM EST Friday...While no significant precipitation 
systems are forecast during the long-term period, an active 
northern stream upper flow pattern will maintain potential for 
shortwave trough passages and minor snowfalls. Monday will 
feature quiet/seasonably cold conditions, but will see 
increasing clouds Monday into in advance of arctic boundary and 
developing wave cyclone along the front in sern Ontario. Appears
arctic front shifts thru nrn NY and VT during the day Tuesday, 
coincident with sharpening mid-level shortwave trough. Lake 
moisture and shallow instability should support snow showers and
possible snow squalls across the region as the arctic frontal 
passage occurs. Highs Monday-Tuesday generally in the low-mid 
30s, but will trend colder Wednesday with highs only in the low-
mid 20s based on current indications. Wind chills in the single 
digits are possible with gusty NW winds 15-25 mph. Should see 
some moderation back into the low-mid 30s with passage of a weak
warm front on Thanksgiving Day. Should see cloudy conditions 
with a chance for light snow or scattered snow showers on 
Thanksgiving, especially across the nrn mtns. No significant 
travel problems are foreseen based on current 00Z NWP suite.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Expecting IFR conditions prevail through
the early morning hours as a winter storm brings periods of
moderate to heavy snow to all sites except MSS and RUT. Brief
periods of LIFR snow are expected between 9-13z from
SLK/PBG/BTV/MPV before the snow starts to lighten up mid
morning. Scattered snow showers will continue through the day 
Friday with winds generally be 10 knots of less through the 
period.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for 
     VTZ001>010-012-016>019.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for 
     VTZ011.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for 
     NYZ028>031-034-035.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for 
     NYZ026-027-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Deal

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