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SKIVT-L  November 2018, Week 3

SKIVT-L November 2018, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 15 Nov 2018 06:50:01 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (289 lines)

Expires:201811152100;;337271
FPUS51 KBTV 151129
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
626 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018


VTZ006-152100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
626 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST
FRIDAY...

.TODAY...Partly sunny this morning, then becoming mostly cloudy.
Highs in the mid 20s. Light and variable winds. 
.TONIGHT...A chance of snow until midnight, then snow after
midnight. Snow may be heavy at times after midnight. Snow
accumulation of 3 to 5 inches. Lows around 19. Southeast winds
around 10 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Snow. Additional snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Highs
in the lower 30s. East winds around 10 mph in the morning, becoming
light and variable. Chance of snow 90 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Snow showers likely. Additional light snow
accumulation possible. Lows in the upper 20s. West winds around
10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 30s. West winds 10 to
15 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 20. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows 15 to 20. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the lower 30s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 10 above. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs around 20. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Cold with lows around 10 above. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the mid 20s. 

$$


Expires:201811151200;;337364
ASUS41 KBTV 151130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST THU NOV 15 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-151200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    15   8  73 E3        30.61F                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR       5   4  95 CALM      30.58F                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR       4   1  88 CALM      30.61R FOG              
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A      4   1  88 MISG      30.59S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR       2  -1  87 CALM        N/A                   
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      14  10  83 CALM      30.59F                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      12   8  84 SE5       30.58S WCI   4          
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      15  10  80 CALM      30.60S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      11   8  87 CALM      30.63F                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR       2  -1  89 CALM      30.58R                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      18  11  74 CALM      30.56F                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     -6 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     -2 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A      1 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      7 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     21  14  73 SE7G13      N/A  WCI  13          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     21  12  68 E7          N/A  WCI  13          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     21  14  73 SE6         N/A  WCI  14          

$$


Expires:No;;331449
FXUS61 KBTV 150906
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
406 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure today gives way as an advancing winter storm will
bring widespread moderate and, at times, heavy snow to the 
North Country Thursday night into Friday morning. Winter Storm 
Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the 
North Country. Expected snow totals range from 4 to 9 inches 
through mid day on Friday with another round of light snow 
Friday night. Quiet weather returns coming out of the weekend as
a cold airmass moves in during the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 335 AM EST Thursday...Winter Weather Advisories have been
upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings for the Northern Adirondacks 
and for the Northeast Kingdom. All other Winter Weather 
Advisories remain in effect.

High pressure will slowly drift off to the north and east this 
afternoon as our next winter storm will push into the region. WV
satellite shows a mature cyclone over western Kentucky with a 
strong baroclinic leaf stretching out over the North Country. 
This system will merge energy with a developing coastal low by 
midday and end up pushing widespread precip into the region late
this evening. Thermal profiles support all snow at the onset 
and so we should be looking at a pretty good thump of snow. 
Omega in the dgz is impressive as the warm advection snow starts
and we should see full saturation in the -12C to -18C snow 
growth zone. That combination of RH and vertical lift should
result in some modest sized snow flakes mixing in. Current 
thinking is that snow ratios will be in the 10-11:1 range for 
the warm advection burst and then will switch around to 13-15:1 
once low pulls to the northeast Friday morning into the 
afternoon hours.

The biggest reason for the upgrade to warning level snow is 
that models are continuing to converge on the idea that a strong
band of snow will lift into the region between 03-15z. With 
strong lift and a pronounced 700mb f-gen band pivoting across 
the Adirondacks into the Northeast Kingdom its reasonable to 
expect 1-2" inch an hour rates for at least 4-6 hours during 
the late night hours Thursday night. Picking out exactly where 
the band develops and pivots is still a challenge but its 
looking like a sure thing that a strongly forced meso band will 
drop some pretty heavy snow in a short period of time. This will
likely lead to some isolated power outages and will certainly 
make travel difficult especially during the Friday morning 
commute. The highest qpf totals fall from around 6-12z where 
region wide we'll be looking at between 0.25-0.5" of liquid 
equivalent.

The fly in the ointment with this system however is the warm 
nose and dry slot. There's pretty consistent signal in all the 
models that a dry slot will develop somewhere along southern 
New England and potentially push into southern Vermont. The warm
nose never really gets into the region so it will be cold 
enough for snow everywhere. The problem is that most of the 
guidance does show the mid level dry slot punching into the snow
growth zone for southern Vermont between 9-15z. I leaned away 
from the drier NAM and more towards the GFS and our local 
4kmwrf which hold on to RH a tad longer but either model you 
pick it still shows some dry air moving in aloft. So the net 
effect of that is that instead of ice crystals growing aloft 
we'll see the sounding have supercooled water falling. So there 
may be some periods over southern Vermont early Friday morning 
where some freezing drizzle is mixing in instead of pure snow. 
Its certainly something to keep and eye on and how does that 
affect the snow totals. That area is in an advisory for 4-6 
inches but its certainly possible this system under performs 
there.

So all totaled we'll be looking at widespread 4-8 inch snowfall
with local amounts of 8-10 possible with most of that coming 
within the first 6-8 hours of precip onset. The key messages 
will continue to remain that its early in the season and so 
travel will be difficult especially Friday morning and that with
heavier wet snow may lead to some isolated power outages.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 404 AM EST Thursday...During Friday night, the deep 
surface low will be pulling away from New England south of Nova 
Scotia. However, it continues to appear that in strong mid-level
zonal flow that follows, two trough axes will progress through 
northern New York and Vermont. The first brings periods of 
mainly orographic snow shower activity across the Adirondacks 
and central/nrn Greens. The second is a 700-500mb vorticity 
maximum and reinforcing sfc cold front approaching from Ontario 
that passes through the region between 15-21Z Saturday. The 
front will likely bring additional scattered convective snow 
showers or a few snow squalls for a period of time Saturday, 
with steep low-level lapse rates in place. Overall snowfall amts
will be light Friday night and Saturday, totaling generally a 
dusting to 2" between the two light events, with slightly higher
amounts possible with orographic enhancement across the nrn 
Greens. Moderate westerly winds of 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 
mph Friday night will keep overnight temperatures from falling 
very quickly, with early Saturday AM lows mainly upr 20s to 
lower 30s for the North Country. Saturday will feature continued
westerly winds, with a nwly wind shift following FROPA and 
temperatures generally steady in the 30s. Should see a trend 
toward lighter winds and cessation of snow shower activity 
Saturday night as sfc anticyclone across the Great Lakes begins 
to build ewd across New York and New England. A better 
radiational cooling night is forecast, with lows mainly in the 
teens, except lower 20s in the Champlain and upper CT valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 404 AM EST Thursday...A quieter weather pattern is 
forecast for the long-term, with just northern stream shortwave 
troughs bringing potential for light snow showers Monday and 
Tuesday. Overall temperature conditions remain below normal for 
mid-November, with valley highs in the low-mid 30s for Sunday 
and Monday. A cold front moves through Monday night/Tuesday, 
with temperatures possibly trending back into the mid- upr 20s 
for highs on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. This will again
be 10-15deg below normal. Early indications suggest mainly fair
and seasonably cold conditions continuing for Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...VFR conditions and light winds will 
continue through the day on Thursday before widespread IFR/LIFR 
snow moves into the North Country overnight Thursday night. 
Winds will begin to shift from the NW to the S over the course 
of the day Thursday. 

Outlook...

Friday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible. Definite
SN, Definite RA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record lows were set at Saranac Lake and Montpelier for 11/14. 

Below are the record low min temperatures for November 15th:

Burlington, VT      9 (1933)
Montpelier, VT      8 (1996)
St. Johnsbury, VT  16 (2003)
Massena, NY        12 (1967)
Plattsburgh, NY    13 (1967)
Saranac Lake, NY  -12 (1993)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Friday 
     for VTZ003-004-006-007.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 PM EST 
     Friday for VTZ001-002-005-008>012-016>019.
NY...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Friday 
     for NYZ028>031-034-035.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 PM EST 
     Friday for NYZ026-027-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Deal
CLIMATE...RSD

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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