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SKIVT-L  November 2018, Week 3

SKIVT-L November 2018, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 18 Nov 2018 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (230 lines)

Expires:201811182100;;487381
FPUS51 KBTV 181127
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
624 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018


VTZ006-182100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
624 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

.TODAY...Partly sunny this morning, then becoming mostly cloudy.
Highs in the mid 20s. Light and variable winds. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then becoming mostly
cloudy. Lows around 20. Light and variable winds, becoming south
around 10 mph after midnight. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of snow showers in the
morning. Highs in the mid 30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of
snow 20 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Lows in the lower 20s. Light and variable winds. 
.TUESDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in
the lower 30s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows 10 to 15. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the mid 20s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Cold with lows 5 to 10 above. 
.THANKSGIVING DAY...Partly sunny. Highs 15 to 20. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Cold with lows zero to 5 above
zero. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 20s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows 10 to 15. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. 

$$


Expires:201811181200;;487548
ASUS41 KBTV 181130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN NOV 18 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-181200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    24  13  62 N3        30.36R                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      18  13  80 CALM      30.33R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    16  13  88 CALM      30.34R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     19  14  81 MISG      30.32R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      17  13  85 CALM        N/A                   
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      24  12  61 CALM      30.35R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      25  19  78 NW3       30.32R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      27  17  66 NW6       30.32R WCI  20          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      10   9  92 CALM      30.38R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      15  12  88 CALM      30.32S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    28  21  75 SW6       30.32R WCI  22          
ISLAND POND*     N/A     14 N/A N/A W1          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     12 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     18 N/A N/A S2          N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     10 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     27  18  69 NW10G16     N/A  WCI  17          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     28  19  69 NW13        N/A  WCI  18          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     28  18  64 NW10        N/A  WCI  19          

$$


Expires:No;;487601
FXUS61 KBTV 181131
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
631 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Chilly temperatures expected today as high pressure builds in
over the North Country. Our next chance for widespread organized
showers will be on Tuesday into Wednesday as an arctic front 
sweeps through the North County bringing scattered snow showers 
across the region. Behind that cold front we'll see well below 
normal temperatures as we look forward to a rather chilly 
Thanksgiving holiday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 628 AM EST Sunday...High pressure and clearing skies are 
the theme through mid day. Cold air advection pushes into the 
region and brings -9C to -12C 925mb temps. That will lead to 
daytime highs today only warming into the mid 20s to low 30s. 
Warm air advection starts pushing in late in the day as a fairly
progressive upper level trough digs south of the North Country.
There's an upper level ribbon of vorticity that will be the 
forcing for some snow showers across southern Vermont and 
southern New England. The best forcing and RH profiles show 
everything going south so from about Montpelier north we 
shouldn't see anything but across Rutland and Windsor we should 
see some modest light snow with accumulations ending in between 
a dusting to 2 inches in the higher elevations. Highs with the 
warm air advection on Monday should push into the mid to upper 
30s which is still some 4-8 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 412 AM EST Sunday...The short-term forecast period will 
feature continued below normal temperatures as broadly cyclonic 
flow continues in the 700-500mb layer from the Great Lakes 
eastward into NY/New England. It continues to appear that an 
embedded positive tilt shortwave trough will induce sfc 
cyclogenesis east of New Jersey Tuesday morning, with weak sfc 
low tracking toward Cape Cod and the Islands during Tuesday 
afternoon. Appears best low-level forcing/UVV will remain south 
of our region associated with the developing surface low. That 
said, should see some developing light snow or snow showers with
passage of mid-level trough later Monday night across the St. 
Lawrence Valley with modest mid-level CVA, and during the 
daylight hours Tuesday from the northern Adirondacks ewd. Snow 
showers should generally exit east of the CT River Valley by 21Z
Tuesday, with narrow ridge of high pressure bringing dry 
weather conditions and potentially good radiational cooling for 
Tuesday night. 

Snowfall during late Monday night/Tuesday will be rather light, 
generally ranging from a dusting to 2", with the best potential for 
1-2" totals across the northern Adirondacks and north-central into 
northeastern VT. 

Developing overcast skies will yield relatively uniform low 
temperatures in the mid-20s for Monday night, with Tuesday's highs 
mainly in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Lows Tuesday night will likely 
fall into the teens areawide, except locally near 20F very near Lake 
Champlain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 412 AM EST Sunday...Appears the coldest air mass of the 
season thus far will move into the North Country in time for 
Thanksgiving Day, with highs only in the teens to lower 20s and 
NW winds of 15-25 mph contributing to wind chill readings near 
zero. Preceding this will be the passage of the arctic front, 
expected during the daylight hours Wednesday. Strong low-mid 
level winds, moisture advection/entrainment from the Great 
Lakes, and strong low-level convergence along the front will 
bring the potential for snow showers and possible organized snow
squalls accompanying the frontal passage Wednesday afternoon. 
May result in brief periods of vsby below 1/4 mile, and will 
need to monitor this potential with Wednesday being a major 
holiday travel day. The 1000-500mb thickness values fall to 
495dm with -20C 850mb temps by 12Z Thanksgiving morning 
following the front per both 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF. Looking for 
low temps in the single digits above zero Thanksgiving morning, 
except lower teens very near Lake Champlain. High pressure 
builds in on Thursday night and Friday, with continued cold 
temperatures but lighter wind conditions. Air mass should 
moderate slightly, with Friday's highs mainly in the low- mid 
20s. May finally see a pattern change next weekend with coldest 
air/upper trough lifting out, and light S-SW return flow 
developing. Looking for highs in the mid 30s for Saturday, and 
possibly upper 30s/lower 40s for Sunday. Early indications 
suggest much of the weekend will be dry.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Generally VFR under clearing skies through
the TAF period trending towards MVFR as clouds move in Sunday
night. Winds initially west/southwesterly from 6-10 kts, 
shifting west to northwesterly 5 to 10 kts behind the boundary 
in the 21-00Z time frame before abating to light and variable 
after by 09-12Z. Latest satellite imagery shows clearing slowly 
moving in from the west and all sites should see partial 
clearing by 12-15z. Late in the day some scattered snow shower
will move into RUT and produce reduced visibilities and 
ceilings but with the scattered nature of the showers I haven't 
included prevailing lowered visibilities.

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Thanksgiving Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Deal

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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