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SKIVT-L  November 2018, Week 4

SKIVT-L November 2018, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 24 Nov 2018 06:50:01 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (276 lines)

Expires:201811242100;;776335
FPUS51 KBTV 241128
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
625 AM EST Sat Nov 24 2018


VTZ006-242100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
625 AM EST Sat Nov 24 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST SUNDAY...

.TODAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. South winds around
10 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A chance of freezing rain until midnight,
then freezing rain or rain after midnight. Ice accumulation of up to
a tenth of an inch. Lows in the upper 20s. Southeast winds around
10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Cloudy. Rain or freezing rain in the morning, then a
chance of rain in the afternoon. Ice accumulation around a trace.
Highs in the lower 40s. Light and variable winds. Chance of
precipitation 90 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. Lows around 30. South winds around 10 mph. 
.MONDAY...Rain or a chance of snow showers. Little or no snow
accumulation. Highs in the upper 30s. South winds around 10 mph.
Chance of precipitation 80 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Rain or snow. Light snow accumulation. Lows in the
lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Snow or rain showers likely. Little or no additional snow
accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation
70 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Snow showers likely. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance
of snow 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Snow showers likely. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of
snow 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Snow showers likely. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance
of snow 60 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs
in the lower 30s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows in the lower 20s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s. 

$$


Expires:201811241200;;776480
ASUS41 KBTV 241130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-241200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      26   5  40 S8        30.12F WCI  18          
MONTPELIER     FAIR      12   8  84 CALM      30.13S                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR       6   4  91 CALM      30.13F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     10   7  87 MISG      30.14S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      10   5  82 CALM        N/A                   
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      24   6  46 S6        30.16R WCI  17          
RUTLAND*       FAIR      14   8  77 SE5       30.16R WCI   6          
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      11   9  92 CALM      30.19R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      26   6  41 S12G18    30.10S WCI  16          
NEWPORT*       FAIR      17   8  65 SE10      30.10S WCI   5          
BENNINGTON     FAIR      16  10  77 CALM      30.16R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A      3 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A      7 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A      5 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     28 N/A N/A SW28        N/A  WCI  13          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     32  16  51 S25G32      N/A  WCI  19          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     30  18  59 MISG        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     28  10  47 S17         N/A  WCI  16          

$$


Expires:No;;773825
FXUS61 KBTV 241015
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
515 AM EST Sat Nov 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will bring fairly widespread 
precipitation to the region late this afternoon through Sunday. 
Temperatures will be warming with highs in the 30s to around 40 
this weekend...but pavement temperatures may stay below freezing
Saturday and Saturday night which could result in some freezing
rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 445 AM EST Saturday...Today will mainly be dry as surface
high pressure slides east of the region. Warmer temperatures are
expected on Southerly return flow and with some sunshine this
morning. Early daytime highs will be in the mid 30s to lower
40s. Clouds increase later today with precipitation beginning 
early this evening then spreading west to east across our area.
Even though our surface temperatures are warm, pavement
temperatures are sure to still be cold after our arctic 
outbreak to support some freezing rain from this evening through
early Sunday morning. Winter Weather Advisory remains in 
effect, have added the Western Champlain valley to the advisory,
same time frame. 

A low pressure lifts through the Great Lakes area, and at the 
same time another low rides along the New England coast. As a 
result of the two systems, we end up with a slug of moisture 
crossing the area. Deep southerly flow over northern NY/VT 
this evening through Sunday morning allowing for a broad area 
of WAA/isentropic ascent and associated precipitation. Storm
total QPF should range from a couple tenths of an inch to about
half an inch of liquid precipitation. 

In terms of precipitation type...most of the precip will fall as
rain or freezing rain. Given the very cold air mass that we've
been experiencing, many road/pavement surfaces east of the 
Green Mountains and in portions of the Adirondacks will still be
below freezing Saturday night/Sunday morning. Thus, expecting 
areas of freezing rain in these locations...leading to 
icy/slippery conditions on any untreated surfaces. Total ice 
accumulations will generally be under a tenth of an inch, 
although some of the highest elevations of Essex County NY could
see up to two tenths of an inch of ice. 

By late Sunday morning, precipitation will transition to
predominantly rain, then taper off through the day Sunday from
west to east. Temperatures Sunday will top out in the upper 30s
to low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 320 AM EST Saturday...Active weather continues into the 
short term as models remain consistent in showing energy across 
the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes lifting northeast into the area by 
Monday into Monday night. Initially, conditions will be on the 
quiet side Sunday night as weak default ridging in lower levels 
skirts across the area. Plenty of moisture in mid levels and 
increasing mid to high clouds aloft from the approaching system 
should spell mainly cloudy skies overnight as low temperatures 
bottom out in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

By Monday/Monday night aforementioned system moves into the region 
with widespread light to moderate rains/snows under a modestly 
robust warm thermal advection pattern. Gusty south/southwesterly 
winds to likely evolve in favored areas of the St Lawrence and 
Champlain Valleys into the daylight hours per latest 925 mb raw wind 
output from this mornings short range models. Parent occluding 
cyclone across the eastern Great Lakes to gradually give way to 
coastal development along the New England coast, with this latter 
system getting wrapped up in an anomalously large cyclonic gyre 
across the Northeast into mid-week. Boundary layer temperatures will 
play a critical role in eventual p-type, though a look at soundings 
suggest this will mainly be rain and/or snow event with progs for 
sleet/fzra on the lower side. WPC superensemble QPF/ptype plumes 
suggest the highest threat for more modest accumulating snows will 
occur Monday night across eastern and especially northeastern VT in 
closer proximity to strengthening dynamics from the departing 
coastal feature as it pulls into the Gulf of Maine. However, 
some light snows will be possible even from the Champlain Valley
west, though confidence is lower in the broader valleys. By 
Tuesday scattered to numerous rain/snow shower activity 
continues with some additional minor accumulations possible in 
elevated terrain across the northern mountains. Highs during 
this period average in the mid to upper 30s east and upper 30s 
to mid 40s west on Monday, cooling slightly into the 35 to 40 
degree range by Tuesday as large upper trough begins 
consolidating across the region. Lows Monday night to generally 
range through the lower and mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 320 AM EST Saturday...A typical late fall pattern of 
cloudy and seasonably cool weather then continues into much of 
Wednesday and Thursday of next week with periodic snow/rain 
shower activity, most focused across the northern mountains as 
the upper cyclonic gyre trundles overhead. Some additional minor
accumulations will be possible during this period, especially 
at night and in elevated terrain. Temperatures continue to 
gradually cool such that by Thursday afternoon highs should fall
back into the lower and mid 30s.

By Thursday night onward into next Saturday high pressure finally 
builds into the region with skies slowly trending partly cloudy and 
chances for lingering snow shower activity ending. Temperatures 
remain seasonably cool with highs generally from 29 to 35 and 
overnight lows from the upper teens to mid 20s. Long term ensembles 
show any arctic air will remain well north across central/northern 
Canada through the period and likely beyond into early December.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06z Sunday...VFR conditions generally expected through 
00z. Prevailing stratus deck, 4-6kft, will tend to shift east 
of the North Country during the pre-dawn hours. Should have a 
period of mostly clear skies, followed by increasing mid-level 
OVC during Saturday afternoon. Winds will generally continue 
from the south at BTV at 10-15kt. Winds generally 5-10kts 
elsewhere from the SE, locally becoming NE 5-10kt at KMSS toward
Saturday evening. Will see developing light rain and pockets of
ZR from SW-NE across the area. 

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN,
Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA, Chance
SN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible.
Definite SN, Definite RA.
Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHSN, Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory continues for Lake Champlain through the
morning hours. Southerly gradient wind persists as high 
pressure shifts east of New England. With water temperatures 
still in the mid-40s, expect frequent gusts up to 30kts with 
steep low-level lapse rates in place. The highest wave heights 
will be near the northern end of the broad lake for tonight into
Saturday, reaching 5ft at times.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST 
     Sunday for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST 
     Sunday for NYZ028-031-034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Neiles
MARINE...Banacos

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March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
January 2009, Week 5
January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
December 2008, Week 5
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December 2008, Week 3
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December 2008, Week 1
November 2008, Week 5
November 2008, Week 4
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November 2008, Week 1
October 2008, Week 5
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October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
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August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
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July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
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May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
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January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
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February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
December 2006, Week 5
December 2006, Week 4
December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
December 2006, Week 1
November 2006, Week 5
November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
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September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
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August 2006, Week 3
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July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
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June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
April 2006, Week 5
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April 2006, Week 2
April 2006, Week 1
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March 2006, Week 4
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January 2006, Week 3
January 2006, Week 2
January 2006, Week 1
December 2005, Week 5
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December 2005, Week 3
December 2005, Week 2
December 2005, Week 1
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November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
October 2005, Week 5
October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
September 2005, Week 5
September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
August 2005, Week 4
August 2005, Week 3
August 2005, Week 2
August 2005, Week 1
July 2005, Week 5
July 2005, Week 4
July 2005, Week 3
July 2005, Week 2
July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 4
June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
May 2005, Week 5
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May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
January 2005, Week 5
January 2005, Week 4
January 2005, Week 3
January 2005, Week 2
January 2005, Week 1
December 2004, Week 5
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December 2004, Week 3
December 2004, Week 2
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November 2004, Week 4
November 2004, Week 3
November 2004, Week 2
November 2004, Week 1
October 2004, Week 5
October 2004, Week 4
October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
September 2004, Week 5
September 2004, Week 4
September 2004, Week 3
September 2004, Week 2
September 2004, Week 1
August 2004, Week 5
August 2004, Week 4
August 2004, Week 3
August 2004, Week 2
August 2004, Week 1
July 2004, Week 5
July 2004, Week 4
July 2004, Week 3
July 2004, Week 2
July 2004, Week 1
June 2004, Week 5
June 2004, Week 4
June 2004, Week 3
June 2004, Week 2
June 2004, Week 1
May 2004, Week 5
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May 2004, Week 3
May 2004, Week 2
May 2004, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 3
April 2004, Week 2
April 2004, Week 1
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March 2004, Week 3
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February 2003, Week 3
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November 2002, Week 3
November 2002, Week 2
November 2002, Week 1
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October 2002, Week 3
October 2002, Week 2
October 2002, Week 1
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September 2002, Week 2
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June 2002, Week 5
June 2002, Week 4
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June 2002, Week 2
June 2002, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 3
April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
March 2002, Week 5
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
December 2001, Week 5
December 2001, Week 4
December 2001, Week 3
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December 2001, Week 1
November 2001, Week 5
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November 2001, Week 3
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November 2001, Week 1
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April 2001, Week 1
March 2001, Week 5
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March 2001, Week 1
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March 2000, Week 5
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March 2000, Week 1
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December 1999, Week 5
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June 1999, Week 3
June 1999, Week 2
June 1999, Week 1
May 1999, Week 5
May 1999, Week 4
May 1999, Week 3
May 1999, Week 2
May 1999, Week 1
April 1999, Week 5
April 1999, Week 4
April 1999, Week 3
April 1999, Week 2
April 1999, Week 1
March 1999, Week 5
March 1999, Week 4
March 1999, Week 3
March 1999, Week 2
March 1999, Week 1
February 1999, Week 4
February 1999, Week 3
February 1999, Week 2
February 1999, Week 1
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December 1998, Week 5
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