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SKIVT-L  November 2018, Week 4

SKIVT-L November 2018, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 25 Nov 2018 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (253 lines)

Expires:201811252100;;820134
FPUS51 KBTV 250816
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
311 AM EST Sun Nov 25 2018


VTZ006-252100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
311 AM EST Sun Nov 25 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...Rain or freezing rain this morning, then rain likely this
afternoon. Ice accumulation around a trace. Highs in the lower 40s.
Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers until midnight.
Lows in the lower 30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain
20 percent. 
.MONDAY...Cloudy. A slight chance of rain in the morning, then rain
likely or snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation a dusting to
1 inch. Highs around 40. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of
precipitation 80 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Snow or rain. Light snow accumulation. Lows around
30. East winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of
precipitation near 100 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Snow or rain likely. Additional light snow accumulation.
Highs in the upper 30s. North winds around 10 mph. Chance of
precipitation near 100 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Snow showers likely. Little or no additional snow
accumulation. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Snow showers likely. Little or no snow accumulation.
Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Snow showers likely. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance
of snow 70 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs
in the lower 30s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows in the lower 20s. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 30s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. 

$$


Expires:201811251200;;828540
ASUS41 KBTV 251130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN NOV 25 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-251200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  38  35  89 E5        29.78S                  
MONTPELIER     MIX PCPN  32  32 100 CALM      29.83S                  
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  34  34 100 SW3       29.81S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     31  27  85 MISG      29.80S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT RAIN  32  27  83 CALM        N/A                   
MIDDLEBURY*    LGT RAIN  33  32  98 CALM      29.77F                  
RUTLAND*       LGT RAIN  37  36  93 E6        29.77S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    32  32 100 S3        29.80F FOG              
HIGHGATE*      MIX PCPN  37  37  99 E7        29.79R WCI  31          
NEWPORT*       DRIZZLE   32  32  99 CALM      29.81R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    37  35  92 CALM      29.76R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     28 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     30 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     34 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     34 N/A N/A SE15G28     N/A  WCI  24          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     39  37  93 S5          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     41  39  93 SE9         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;822820
FXUS61 KBTV 250919
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
419 AM EST Sun Nov 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of rain and freezing rain are expected through this 
morning. Temperatures will trend near normal on Sunday but yet 
another system will impact the region Monday afternoon and 
Tuesday which will bring rain on Monday and begin transitioning 
to snow by early Tuesday morning. Following this system, we will
remain under the influence of an upper level trough which will 
bring below normal temperatures and scattered snow showers to 
the region through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 415 AM EST Sunday...Low off the coast of Long Island will
head eastward today, continuing to suck all the energy with it.
There has been very heavy rain in Southern New England
overnight, not so much in Northern New York and Vermont. Will
have some lingering light rain this morning, still think there's
a chance for some freezing rain east of the Greens. There is not
a very big threat for icing, because we likely won't have very
much QPF. The models over did the QPF with this system a lot.
Only expect light precipitation through 18z and mostly across
our most Northern zones. Maximum temperatures will lift into the
40s areawide today, and though this feels warm compared to
temperatures that we've had recently, it's actually very near to
seasonal normals for late November. Tonight will be a brief
break from busy weather with some weak surface ridging over the
region. Minimum temperatures tonight will be in the upper 20s to
lower 30s. 

Our next system approaches for Monday, beginning late in the day
to spread rainfall into our region. Vertically stacked low
pressure system lifts from the Ohio area northeastwards into the
Saint Lawrence valley. After 18z, rainfall will spread from
southwest to northeast into our area. Before the rainfall
begins, temperatures will lift into the lower to mid 40s. Most
of the area will start with rain then change to snow, but the
higher elevations may start right out with snow. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 251 AM EST Sunday...The forecast philosophy remains 
largely unchanged from 24 hours ago showing a complex cyclonic 
pattern evolving across the Northeast in the Monday night to 
Wednesday time frame. Occluding cyclone across the eastern Great
Lakes to spawn secondary development along the southern New 
England coast Monday night with widespread light to moderate 
precipitation expected under strong warm thermal advection 
aloft. This secondary low will, over time become captured by the
developing upper low/gyre with precipitation pivoting into 
northern counties during the day on Tuesday into Tuesday evening
before trending more orographic in nature by Tuesday night as 
flow trends northwesterly. Model sounding profiles continue to 
support a rain vs. snow event, with p-type heavily governed by 
dynamical cooling processes and boundary layer temperature 
profiles. Have leaned a tad cooler than blended MOS guidance in 
the Monday night/Tuesday time frame, though values have trended 
a tad warmer by 1-3 degrees from this time last night. Given 
these trends I've also downplayed the more aggressive ECMWF 
snowfall guidance as WPC plume guidance shows it being a clear 
heavy outlier and influencing the overall mean. For now I'll 
show minimal accumulations in the deeper valleys with the 
greatest accumulations occurring above 1000 feet in the 
Dacks/Greens and across north central/northeastern VT where 
dynamical cooling processes and slightly cooler temperatures 
should have more influence in closer proximity to the secondary 
low. In these areas several inches if not more will be possible.
Lows Monday night to generally range from the upper 20s to mid 
30s with highs on Tuesday ranging from 32 to 39.

By Tuesday night into Wednesday the large and consolidating upper 
cyclonic gyre drifts overhead as synoptic flow trends northwesterly 
over time. Precipitation will trend more showery and orographic in 
nature, though good coverage should linger across the northern 
mountains where higher PoPs (60-70%) will be maintained along with 
minor additional snow accumulations. A mix of rain/snow showers will 
be offered in lower elevations during the daylight hours on 
Wednesday. Low temperatures to range from the mid 20s to lower 30s 
with corresponding highs on Wednesday from 31 to 38.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 251 AM EST Sunday...Scattered snow showers then gradually
taper off across northern and central counties by Wednesday 
night into Thursday as closed cyclonic circulation pulls slowly 
away from the region. Then mainly dry from Friday into Saturday 
as high pressure builds across the region. GFS appears an 
outlier in regard to precipitation chances Fri night/Sat. By 
next Sunday better agreement exists among model solutions 
showing renewed chances for rain/snow moving into the region. 
Temperatures during this late week time frame to average 
slightly below late November norms with highs in the 30s and 
lows in the 20s with some customary variability. Any arctic air 
to remain well north of the intl border across central/northern 
Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06z Sunday...Still have mainly VFR ceilings with some
periods of MVFR at times especially RUT. Visibilities will drop
into the 3 to 5 mile range in precipitation. All TAF sites 
should trend toward MVFR by tomorrow morning as precipitation 
exits the region. Precipitation will be moving in from southwest
to northeast overnight with freezing rain likely at MPV, other
sites should just have rain. Ice accumulations between one 
tenth to two tenths of an inch are possible. Precipitation will 
end between 12-14z across the area. Winds will be generally out 
of the south at 5-10 knots except KMSS will see a channeled 
northeast wind through the period. Southerly 30 knot LLWS will 
exist over portions of northern New York and at KMSS/KSLK 
through 09z.

Outlook...

Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely RA, Chance SHRA,
Chance SN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SN,
Definite RA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHSN,
Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for 
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Neiles

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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