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SKIVT-L  November 2018, Week 4

SKIVT-L November 2018, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 28 Nov 2018 06:50:01 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (249 lines)

Expires:201811282100;;977909
FPUS51 KBTV 281136
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
633 AM EST Wed Nov 28 2018


VTZ006-282100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
633 AM EST Wed Nov 28 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...Snow. Additional snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Near
steady temperature in the lower 30s. North winds around 10 mph.
Gusts up to 25 mph this afternoon. Chance of snow near 100 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Snow. Additional snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches.
Lows in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
25 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs
in the lower 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
30 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. Northwest
winds around 10 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. Light and variable
winds. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Snow. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of snow
80 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Rain or snow. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of
precipitation 80 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Rain or snow showers likely. Lows in the lower 30s.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.MONDAY...Snow showers likely or a chance of rain showers. Highs in
the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows in the lower 20s. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs around 30. 

$$


Expires:201811281200;;977726
ASUS41 KBTV 281130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST WED NOV 28 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-281200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT SNOW  33  31  92 NW9       29.27R VSB 1   WCI  25  
MONTPELIER     FLURRIES  30  29  96 NW8       29.23S WCI  22          
MORRISVILLE    FLURRIES  33  30  88 CALM      29.22S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     31  30  96 MISG      29.18S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT SNOW  30  28  95 CALM        N/A                   
MIDDLEBURY*    LGT SNOW  31  31  99 CALM      29.27R                  
RUTLAND*       LGT SNOW  30  30 100 W5        29.26R FOG     WCI  25  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    32  27  81 VRB5      29.24R WCI  27          
HIGHGATE*      LGT SNOW  32  32 100 CALM      29.26S                  
NEWPORT*       LGT SNOW  30  29  97 W3        29.20R                  
BENNINGTON     LGT SNOW  32  28  85 SW9       29.29S FOG     WCI  24  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     28 N/A N/A NW3         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     28 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     28 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     23 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     34  34 100 NW10        N/A  WCI  26          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     36  32  87 NW16        N/A  WCI  26          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     36  32  87 SW6         N/A  WCI  31          

$$


Expires:No;;977782
FXUS61 KBTV 281132
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
632 AM EST Wed Nov 28 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Light accumulating snows will continue across northern counties
today as low pressure near the Maine and New Hampshire border 
drifts slowly east by Thursday. Mainly dry and seasonable 
weather returns for Thursday night into Saturday before chances 
for rain or mixed precipitation return by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 632 AM EST Wednesday...Forecast remains on track as of 
630 am and no changes were needed. Have a great day.

Prior discussion...
Steady light snows continue across much of the area this 
morning as occluded low near the nern VT/nrn NH border remains 
nearly stationary. A moist and blocked cyclonic northwesterly 
flow regime remains in place on the western side of this 
feature. As such, high PoPs will be maintained into this evening
across favored northern counties and upslope regions of the 
northwest Dacks/Greens. In these areas Winter Weather Advisories
will remain in place for additional accumulations of 3-6 
inches, especially areas above 1000 feet. Given the blocked 
flow, areas across northeastern VT will see lighter totals and 
have dropped advisories for this area expecting only minor 
accumulations from 1-3 inches in general. Southern VT valleys to
see only a few/sct snow showers with negligible accums. 

By later this evening and especially into Thursday the coverage of 
light snows/snow showers becomes increasingly confined to the 
immediate west/northwestern mountain slopes and will wane over time 
as occlusion finally begins to drift east. Some minor nuisance 
accumulations will be possible here with the broader valleys 
trending mainly dry during the daylight hours on Thursday. Little 
airmass change is expected over the next 36 hours and given the near-
neutral advective regime temperatures will remain quite uniform as 
highs range from 30 to 36 and lows tonight hover from 25 to 32.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 247 AM EST Wednesday...The short term portion of the forecast 
features a brief but welcome break from the persistent wet 
pattern. Lingering low pressure to our northeast will finally 
weaken and exit the area, taking with it much of the moisture 
that has brought continued snow showers to the North Country. In
the wake of the departing system, the area will see some subtle
height rises aloft and weak high pressure building at the 
surface. As a result, any showers that are ongoing as of 
Thursday night will diminish by Friday morning, with the whole 
area trending dry for Friday. Lows Thursday night will be in the
20s, highs Friday in the low to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 247 AM EST Wednesday...Friday night will feature a 
continuation of quiet weather under high pressure with lows 
again in the 20s. 

Saturday however, the pattern shifts and we enter into a strong 
warm air advection pattern. Deep cyclonic flow developing over 
the MidWest coupled with anticyclonic flow off the Atlantic 
Coast will setup a deep southwesterly fetch Saturday extending 
from the northern Gulf of Mexico through New England. This will 
favor strong warm air advection/positive moisture advection 
into the forecast area Saturday through Sunday. Surface low 
pressure developing over the southern Plains Saturday morning 
will track northeastward through the Mid West Saturday night, 
pushing a warm front with widespread precipitation and gusty 
winds through the North Country overnight. Initially, 
precipitation will start as a wet snow, then quickly transition 
to a messy mix as the night progresses and the low levels warm 
to above freezing. For much of the Saint Lawrence Valley and the
Champlain Valley, the majority of the event will be plain rain 
as the low levels quickly warm in response to increasing 
southerly flow. However, precipitation type could be rather 
messy in portions of the Adirondacks, Green Mountains, and 
eastern Vermont as cold air holds on longer at the surface. 
Similar to the previous storms this month, surface temperatures 
in these areas hovering within a few degrees of freezing mean 
that a temperature fluctuation of just a degree or two would 
result in a different precipitation type. Thus, have held off 
including mention of any freezing rain or sleet in the long term
forecast...however if you have travel plans Saturday 
night/Sunday morning stay tuned to the forecast as there is the 
potential for some messy travel conditions. 

By Sunday afternoon, 850 mb temperatures over the area will have 
risen to 5+ degrees C, allowing for any remaining mixed 
precipitation to transition to all rain by the afternoon hours. 
Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 40s in many areas 
as the warm sector of the cyclone encompasses the forecast area.
Widespread precipitation will taper off some through the day, 
but still expecting the remainder of the day to be showery and 
gusty.

A cold front will sweep through Sunday night/Monday morning,
followed by a return of seasonably cooler, showery weather to
start the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions over the 
forecast period as moist northwest flow interacts with terrain 
keeping steady light snows across the area. Some gradual 
improvement is expected from 18Z onward at selected terminals as
MVFR becomes more prevalent than IFR. Winds generally light 
west/northwesterly in the 3-9 kt range. Snows gradually come to
an end from 00Z onward, persisting longest at KSLK/KBTV.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance RA,
Slight chance SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible.
Definite SN, Definite RA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely RA, Likely
SN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ002-
     005-006-008-016>019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for 
     NYZ028>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...RSD
LONG TERM...RSD
AVIATION...JMG

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December 2007, Week 5
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November 2007, Week 5
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October 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 1
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January 2006, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 5
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January 2005, Week 3
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October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
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February 2001, Week 1
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