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SKIVT-L  November 2018, Week 4

SKIVT-L November 2018, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 23 Nov 2018 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (247 lines)

Expires:201811232100;;728920
FPUS51 KBTV 231126
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
623 AM EST Fri Nov 23 2018


VTZ006-232100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
623 AM EST Fri Nov 23 2018

.TODAY...Sunny. Highs around 20. Light and variable winds, becoming
south around 10 mph this afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 11. South winds around 10 mph
until midnight, becoming light and variable. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. Light and variable
winds, becoming south around 10 mph in the afternoon. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Freezing rain or rain. Lows in the lower 30s.
South winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. 
.SUNDAY...A chance of rain or freezing rain likely. Highs in the
lower 40s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation
70 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. 
.MONDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Highs around 40. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Snow or rain. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of
precipitation 80 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Snow showers likely. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of
snow 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Lows in the mid 20s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs
in the lower 30s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Lows in the lower 20s. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the lower 30s. 

$$


Expires:201811231200;;729177
ASUS41 KBTV 231130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-231200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR       1  -4  79 CALM      30.55F                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR       5   0  79 VRB3      30.50S                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      -7 -11  83 SW3       30.52S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     -3  -6  87 MISG      30.49S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      -3  -6  87 CALM        N/A                   
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR       2  -4  77 S3        30.55S                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      -4  -7  87 E5        30.54S WCI -15          
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR       2  -1  88 CALM      30.55R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      -7 -10  84 SE3       30.55F                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      -5  -7  91 SE6       30.47S WCI -18          
BENNINGTON     FAIR       1  -4  79 SE3       30.56R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A      0 N/A N/A NW3         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     -9 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A      5 N/A N/A SE2         N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     -2 N/A N/A NW35        N/A  WCI -30          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     18   9  68 SW6G13      N/A  WCI   9          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     18 -65   1 MISG        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     10   9  92 MISG        N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;729913
FXUS61 KBTV 231147
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
647 AM EST Fri Nov 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Despite a good deal of sunshine today high temperatures across
the North Country will remain well below normal. It will be
warmer than yesterday...but highs will only be in the upper 
teens to mid 20s. Dry weather is expected today and tonight with
high pressure over the area...but conditions will change on
Saturday and Sunday. A trough of low pressure will bring fairly
widespread precipitation to the region late in the day Saturday
through Sunday. Temperatures will be warming with highs in the
30s to around 40 this weekend...but pavement temperatures may
stay below freezing Saturday and Saturday which could result in
some freezing rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 646 AM EST Friday...Going forecast in real good shape and
no changes needed at this time.

Previous Discussion...
Large area of high pressure exists over the Northeast this 
morning which has allowed for very cold temperatures to develop 
early this morning. The high will move east today and we will 
see a south to southwest return flow to help start a slow 
warming trend. Highs will be in the upper teens to mid 
20s...which is still around 20 degrees below normal for this 
time of year. No precipitation is expected.

Dry weather continues tonight and with south to southwest flow
continuing...warm air advection will help temperatures from
falling to this morning's levels. Increasing clouds and winds
will help keep low temperatures in the teens with some single
digits in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. The warmer air aloft
will continue moving in overnight and temperatures at the higher
summits will be rising overnight as well.

Something we will be watching for late in the day on Saturday is
precipitation moving into northern New York. High temperatures
will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s...but ground temperatures
will have to be closely monitored. The recent cold over the area
has resulted in very cold ground temperatures. Thermal profile
suggests temperatures will be warm enough for rain...but if
ground temperatures do not respond the rain could freeze on
surfaces and cause freezing rain. Vermont will remain dry 
during the day on Saturday with highs in the mid 30s to around 
40...but will have to monitor the freezing rain threat as rain 
moves in Saturday night but ground temperatures potential remain
below freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 409 AM EST Friday...Saturday night and Sunday will be a 
bit messy with our area getting a good slug of moisture, mainly 
rain but some freezing rain in the Dacks and East of the Greens 
where we will have colder temps Saturday night upper 20s and 
lower 30s. A weak low will lift North into Canada, as another 
stronger low tracks along the New England Coast. We're a bit 
stuck in between the 2 systems, but some upper level shortwave 
energy passing overhead will help to enhance chance for 
precipitation Saturday night, then ending on Sunday. Total QPF 
with this feature will be about a quarter to a half an inch. 
Much of the precipitation will be rain, but areas East of the 
Greens and in the colder spots of the Dacks will have some 
freezing rain Saturday night. Still not quite sure on the 
p-type, but if model guidance continues to suggest freezing 
rain, may need a winter weather advisory for this timeframe. 
Current thinking is that these areas could have about a tenth of
an inch of ice or less. Pavement temperatures will likely be 
very cold since we just experienced an arctic outbreak. 
Precipitation will end as rain from west to east across the area
on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 409 AM EST Friday...From Sunday afternoon through early 
Monday will have a brief break in the active weather then 
another more robust low pressure system will bring precipitation
to our area once again Monday and Monday night. This system may
also present some mixed precipitation issues, but right now 
feel that main p types will be rain and then snow. Then from 
Tuesday through early Friday we will be under the influence of a
large upper level low, and flow may become favorable for some 
upslope snow showers as well as some lake effect off Ontario. 
Pretty active weather pattern with a range of temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12z Saturday...Most locations are experiencing VFR 
conditions...but KSLK is LIFR/VLIFR with low clouds and 
freezing fog. After 14z all areas will be VFR as little in the 
way of cloud cover exists. Some mid and high level clouds may 
move into the area between 16z and 00z...but ceilings should
still remain in the VFR category. No precipitation through the 
period will lead to VFR visibilities. Winds will generally be 
10 knots or less through the period. 

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Slight chance RA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
RA, Definite FZRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA, Likely
FZRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite RA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SN,
Definite RA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Below are some daily climate records for November 23rd.

Friday, November 23rd:

        Record Low Daily Max  /  Record Low Daily Min

Burlington:     20 (1914)     /     2 (1972)                
Plattsburgh:    23 (1989)     /     6 (2000)
Montpelier:     21 (2000)     /    -1 (1972)
St. Johnsbury:  24 (1989)     /    -3 (1914)
Saranac Lake:   18 (2000)     /   -11 (1932) 
Massena:        18 (2008)     /     0 (2000)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Evenson
CLIMATE...RSD

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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