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SKIVT-L  December 2018, Week 2

SKIVT-L December 2018, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 13 Dec 2018 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (233 lines)

Expires:201812132100;;727455
FPUS51 KBTV 131141
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
638 AM EST Thu Dec 13 2018


VTZ006-132100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
638 AM EST Thu Dec 13 2018

.TODAY...Partly sunny. A chance of flurries this afternoon. Highs in
the mid 20s. South winds around 10 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows around 18. South winds around 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain or a slight chance of snow
showers in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 30s. South winds around
10 mph. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain. Lows in the
mid 30s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. Light and variable
winds. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the lower 30s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows 15 to 20. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the lower 20s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 10 above. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 20s. 

$$


Expires:201812131200;;726959
ASUS41 KBTV 131130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST THU DEC 13 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-131200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR       3  -2  79 NE5       30.40R WCI  -6          
MONTPELIER     FAIR      -7 -10  87 CALM      30.41R                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR     -13 -17  82 CALM      30.42R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     -8 -12  83 MISG      30.44R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      -8 -12  80 CALM        N/A                   
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR       3  -1  83 CALM      30.39R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      16   1  51 S10G20    30.37R WCI   4          
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR       5   3  91 CALM      30.45R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      -3  -6  86 SE3       30.41S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      -9 -12  84 SW6       30.41R WCI -22          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    21   1  41 VRB5      30.34R WCI  15          
ISLAND POND*     N/A    -26 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A    -13 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A    -17 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      7 N/A N/A S18         N/A  WCI -12          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     14  10  85 SE12        N/A  WCI   0          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     16  14  93 SE14        N/A  WCI   1          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     14  12  92 SE6         N/A  WCI   5          

$$


Expires:No;;727468
FXUS61 KBTV 131143
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
643 AM EST Thu Dec 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance aloft passing to our south may provide a few snow 
showers and or flurries to the region today, but generally dry 
conditions are expected as surface high pressure off the New England 
coast dominates. An upper trough passing north of the region will 
bring a chance of rain and snow showers late Friday afternoon and 
early Friday night, before dry conditions return again for Saturday 
and Sunday. Temperatures will be below normal today, but warm into 
the 30s and 40s for Friday and the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 643 AM EST Thursday...No major updates needed to this 
mornings forecast other than to tweak temps to match current 
observational trends. Current spread of temps across the region 
range from -26F at Island Pond Airport to +23F atop Whiteface 
Mountain. Crazy.

Prior Discussion...
Mid/upper level ridge and surface high pressure over the region
this morning continues to provide bone- chilling temperatures 
for many locations with the coldest spot in the BTV CWA being 
Island Pond airport reporting -21F as of 2 AM. Many locations 
are in the single digits to teens below zero, but where winds 
didn't decouple and high clouds moved in temperatures have 
remained steady or slowly risen into the single digits to teens 
above zero. Warmest spot in the CWA, oddly enough, is the top of
Whiteface Mountain coming in at +21F at 2 AM, which was 
actually well forecast by hi-res model soundings which showed 
warming during the overnight at 850mb.

To our south, a weak shortwave aloft is providing enough moisture
and lift to produce some snow showers across western New York, and
as this feature pivots across the Mid-Atlantic states today, we may
see a few snow showers and/or flurries across central/southern
portions of the North Country, but no accumulations are expected.
Most areas will likely remain dry with temps rebounding nicely into
the mid 20s to low 30s. For tonight, dry conditions continue as
upper ridging redevelops in the wake of the exiting shortwave, and
surface high pressure very slowly shifts offshore to our east.
Despite very dry mid/upper levels, a weak subsidence inversion will
keep skies rather cloudy and will hold temps in the teens to 20s
overnight. Expect the highest summits of the Adirondacks to poke
above the clouds though.

On Friday we'll see generally dry conditions continue through much
of the day until the afternoon when chances for rain/snow showers
increase as warm air advection develops from the south and an upper
trough approaches from the north. Southerly winds will increase
markedly into the 10-20 mph range and warm the boundary layer well
into the 30s with some locations pushing 40 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 256 AM EST Thursday...Trends in the data continue to support
the idea that we will be more influenced by northern stream
shortwave rather than larger upper circulation to our south. This
will keep precipitation on the lighter side and best chances for
precipitation will be over our northern areas. Thermal profile
suggests precipitation will be in the form of rain or snow as cloud
cover and warmer temperatures aloft keep lows generally in the 30s
Friday night. West to northwest flow aloft develops over the area on
Saturday and its now looking like a mainly dry day with highs in the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 256 AM EST Thursday...Most areas remain dry on Sunday but we
could see some moisture moving up from the south late in the day and
Sunday night which could bring some precipitation to our southern
areas. Better chances for precipitation look to be later on Monday
and Monday night as shortwave trough drops down out of Canada.
Thermal profile suggests mainly snow on Monday with some rain mixing
in across the larger valleys...but as cold air advection get
established Monday night the precipitation would be in the form of
snow. Northwest flow aloft Monday night would also tend to start
focusing any precipitation over the northern Adirondacks and the
northern half of Vermont. Could see some light accumulations. Snow
showers will linger in the mountains on Tuesday before high pressure
builds in Tuesday and Wednesday for a return to dry weather. Sunday
looks to be the warmest day with highs in the 30s...then as clouds
and precipitation move in on Monday highs will be in the low to mid
30s and with cold air advection on Tuesday highs will only be in the
upper teens to mid 20s. More sun on Wednesday will lead to some
warmer temperatures with highs in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through
the period with brief MVFR possible across northern New York. 
High cirrus deck building in from the southwest will continue 
to shift northeast across the region this morning while 
gradually lowering to a mid deck around 12kft. Exception will be
KPBG where a lake induced IFR/MVFR deck will persist for a few 
more hours before lifting to VFR. For this afternoon, upstream 
obs still show MVFR over the eastern Great Lakes and these 
clouds may shift into northern New York affecting KMSS and KSLK 
for a brief period before shifting south of the region this 
evening. Elsewhere, VFR will prevail with cigs lowering to just 
above the mountain tops by the afternoon and remain there 
through the overnight. Light and variable winds this morning 
trend southerly at less than 10 knots after 12Z and through the
remainder of the period.

Outlook...

Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA, Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA,
Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Lahiff

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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