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SKIVT-L  December 2018, Week 3

SKIVT-L December 2018, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 18 Dec 2018 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (281 lines)

Expires:201812182100;;975915
FPUS51 KBTV 181128
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
624 AM EST Tue Dec 18 2018


VTZ006-182100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
624 AM EST Tue Dec 18 2018

.TODAY...Cloudy with a chance of snow showers this morning, then
partly sunny with a slight chance of snow showers this afternoon.
Highs around 17. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to
40 mph. Chance of snow 50 percent.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 7 above. Northwest winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph until midnight, becoming light and
variable.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. Highs
around 30. Light and variable winds.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. Light and variable
winds.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. Light and variable
winds.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Rain likely or a chance of freezing rain. Lows
around 30. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
.FRIDAY...Rain or freezing rain likely. Highs in the upper 40s.
Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Rain. Lows in the upper 30s. Chance of rain
90 percent.
.SATURDAY...Rain or snow showers likely. Highs in the lower 40s.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Lows in the lower 20s.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the upper 20s.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 15.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the mid 20s.

$$


Expires:201812181200;;976117
ASUS41 KBTV 181130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST TUE DEC 18 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-181200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 20 9 62 NW20G26 29.94R WCI 4
MONTPELIER LGT SNOW 14 11 87 NW15G25 29.85R FOG WCI -1
MORRISVILLE LGT SNOW 16 8 71 N14G23 29.88R WCI 2
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 17 9 70 MISG 29.79R
LYNDONVILLE* LGT SNOW 14 10 81 W12 N/A WCI 1
MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 19 7 60 N16G23 29.92R WCI 4
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 19 7 59 NW15G24 29.86R WCI 5
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 20 8 60 NW15G26 29.83R WCI 6
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 17 9 69 NW6G21 29.97R WCI 9
NEWPORT* CLOUDY 14 8 78 NW12G25 29.84R WCI 0
BENNINGTON FAIR 19 6 57 NW10G22 29.88R WCI 7
ISLAND POND* N/A 14 N/A N/A NW13 N/A WCI 0
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 12 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 12 N/A N/A W5 N/A WCI 4
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 3 N/A N/A CALM N/A

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 23 16 74 NW17G32 N/A WCI 9
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 23 14 68 NW29 N/A WCI 6
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 21 9 58 NW15G24 N/A WCI 8

$$


Expires:No;;976171
FXUS61 KBTV 181133
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
633 AM EST Tue Dec 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty northwest winds and chilly temperatures will prevail
today as high pressure builds into the forecast area.
Temperatures begin to moderate on Wednesday as winds turn
southerly under partial sunshine. A strong storm system will
bring widespread moderate rainfall, gusty winds and mild
temperatures to the region by Friday and Saturday. The
combination of rainfall and melting snow may lead to modest
rises and possible ice movement on area rivers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 633 AM EST Tuesday...The forecast remains in good shape
as we approach morning twilight. I did make slight adjustments
to sky cover and hourly temperatures/dewpoints through late
morning to account for the latest observational trends. However,
this did not affect the overall forecast in any appreciable
manner. Have a great day.

Prior discussion...
A blustery, chilly day remains on tap for the forecast area as
a tight pressure gradient remains in place between approaching
high pressure and a departing winter storm across the Canadian
Maritimes. Robust cold thermal advection along with a deeply
mixed boundary layer should allow northwesterly wind gusts to
continue in the 20 to 30 mph range for most areas through mid
afternoon before speeds begin to abate toward early evening.
High temperatures will struggle to climb only a few degrees
above this morning's lows - topping out mainly from the mid
teens to lower 20s. Snow shower activity will be most focused
across the northern mountains through this morning, gradually
abating over time by this afternoon as skies trend partly sunny
in the broader valleys. Additional high elevation accumulations
will be negligible and generally less than 2 inches.

Quiet weather is then expected for tonight into Wednesday as
aforementioned high slides overhead with nil PoPs and clear to
partly cloudy skies. Lows tonight to range through the single
digits in the mountains and from 8 to 15 above in the valleys as
winds trend light. Some guidance suggests a few favored spots
may dip into the single digits below zero across the northern
Greens/Dacks, but confidence is tempered by potential mid level
moisture from 700-500 mb overnight which may limit full
radiative effects. By Wednesday temperatures begin to moderate
as the surface high slides off the VA/NC capes and boundary flow
backs to south/southwesterly. Using a multi-model consensus
offers highs from the upper 20s to mid 30s in VT and in the 30s
across northern NY counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 410 AM EST Tuesday...Dry weather continues as high
pressure crests to the south of the forecast area. Expect
southerly winds to pick up slightly and warm air advection to
push temps well above normal for both lows wedensday night and
highs on Thursday. Expect highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s
with lows Wed night in the upper 20s.

Clouds ahead of our next system will start to thicken and by
late Thursday we should be under overcast skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 410 AM EST Tuesday...The end of the work week looks to be
rather unsettled as a full latitude upper level trough digs in
across the eastern half of CONUS. A corresponding inland surface
low develops over the Southern Appalachian Mountains and slowly
pushes towards the northeast Thursday evening. This will place
us in deep southwest flow, ushering a moist airmass with PWATs
2-3 standard deviations above normal. As the upper level trough
turns slightly negatively tiled the surface low starts to
elongate along the spine of the Appalachian Mountains and brings
warm advection rainfall to the region. With rainfall starting
to move into southern Vermont and parts of the North Country
late Thursday night into Friday morning we'll see a mix of rain
and or freezing rain as the we'll be slowly coming out of the
cold airmass during the middle of the week. Soundings show the
warm layer should be strong enough to fully melt any
hydrometeors so we shouldn't see any sleet or snow except for
may some mountain summits greater than 3000'. Total ice
accumulation's range from a couple hundreths to as much as two
tenths east of the Greens so its possible we could be looking at
a low end winter weather advisory for late this week.

By Friday morning warm air temps will warm enough everywhere
such that all sites should see just plain rain. Then the
question becomes where does the dry slot push in because
anywhere that the dry slot pushes in will have the chance to
warm into the low 50s. Another challenge is the potential for
some downsloping winds. The consensus of the models is that
there should be a modestly strong low level jet that develops
and pushes into the North Country but depending on the low track
and shape the winds could be slightly more southerly which
would limit the amount of downsloping but could end up with more
channeled flow. So right now the idea is that we're paying
attention to the potential for some gusty winds but we'll have
to continue to monitor for more specifics.

The final challenge and perhaps the one with the most impact is
that with the warming temperatures we should see some ice
movement on local area rivers. Thawing degree hours rise above
250-300 for most of the North Country and so the combination of
rainfall and thawing degree hours should mean that we'll see
some ice break up. So we'll need to keep an eye out for any ice
jams that form and certainly if you see one forming let us know!

The flow wraps around Saturday as the precip becomes more
showery and orographically forced. With the northwest flow
pushing temps back below freezing there's a chance we could see
some backside snowfall behind all of the rain and warm air. Weak
ridging pushes in Sunday as briefly quieter weather moves in.
Temperatures ending the weekend and starting off the next work
week will be much cooler, with highs in the upper 20s to lower
30s and lows in the teens and 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Gusty northwesterly winds to continue
through 18Z today behind a strong polar front that passed
through the area yesterday afternoon. Sustained winds from 12-20
kts and gusts from 18-30 kt likely during this period,
gradually abating in the 18-00Z time frame. Low level
turbulence likely on departures/approaches due to these winds.
Scattered shsn with areas of blowing snow to continue across
elevated terrain with MVFR cigs and occnl IFR vsbys through the
15-18Z time frame, namely at KSLK/KMPV before conditions trend
VFR. Mainly dry at other terminals including KBTV with mainly
VFR conditions expected. Skies to trend SCT/SKC at all terminals
from 00Z Wednesday onward as winds abate to less than 10 kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance FZRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA,
Definite FZRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Likely SHSN.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EST Tuesday...A Lake Wind Advisory remains in
effect today for northwesterly winds from 15 to 25 knots with
higher gusts. This will create a moderate chop on open waters
and in inlets with northwesterly exposures such as Shelburne
Bay. These conditions may prove hazardous to small craft and
those with recreational plans on the lake today should plan
accordingly. Winds will abate by tonight into Wednesday leading
to improving conditions.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...JMG

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
January 2009, Week 5
January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
December 2008, Week 5
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December 2008, Week 3
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December 2008, Week 1
November 2008, Week 5
November 2008, Week 4
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November 2008, Week 1
October 2008, Week 5
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October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 5
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July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
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April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
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March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
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December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
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November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
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August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
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June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
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March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
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February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 5
November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
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October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
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September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
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June 2006, Week 2
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May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
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May 2006, Week 1
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November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
October 2005, Week 5
October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
September 2005, Week 5
September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
August 2005, Week 4
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August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 3
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
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January 2005, Week 3
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January 2005, Week 1
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December 2004, Week 3
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November 2004, Week 2
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October 2004, Week 5
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October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 4
September 2004, Week 3
September 2004, Week 2
September 2004, Week 1
August 2004, Week 5
August 2004, Week 4
August 2004, Week 3
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August 2004, Week 1
July 2004, Week 5
July 2004, Week 4
July 2004, Week 3
July 2004, Week 2
July 2004, Week 1
June 2004, Week 5
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June 2004, Week 2
June 2004, Week 1
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May 2004, Week 3
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April 2004, Week 3
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April 2004, Week 1
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June 2002, Week 5
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June 2002, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
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December 2001, Week 4
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March 2001, Week 5
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December 1999, Week 5
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May 1999, Week 3
May 1999, Week 2
May 1999, Week 1
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April 1999, Week 3
April 1999, Week 2
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March 1999, Week 3
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March 1999, Week 1
February 1999, Week 4
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December 1998, Week 5
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