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SKIVT-L  December 2018, Week 3

SKIVT-L December 2018, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 21 Dec 2018 10:41:09 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (307 lines)

Expires:201812212100;;126552
FPUS51 KBTV 211406
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
902 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018


VTZ006-212100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
902 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.REST OF TODAY...Rain, breezy with highs in the lower 50s. Southeast
winds 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 50 mph, decreasing to 35 mph this
afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
.TONIGHT...Rain until midnight, then showers likely after midnight.
Lows in the upper 30s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
30 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
.SATURDAY...Rain showers likely in the morning. Cloudy with a chance
of snow showers. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches possible.
Highs around 40. Temperature falling into the upper 20s in the
afternoon. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, becoming west 15 to 20 mph
in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Lows around 19. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to
35 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 30. Northwest winds around
10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows 15 to 20.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the upper 20s.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows 10 to 15.
.CHRISTMAS DAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 20s.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 10 above.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 20s.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 10 above.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 20s.

$$


Expires:201812211600;;129857
ASUS41 KBTV 211530
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1000 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-211600-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON LGT RAIN 47 46 97 SE3 29.45F FOG
MONTPELIER LGT RAIN 39 39 100 CALM 29.59F VSB 1/4
MORRISVILLE LGT RAIN 41 32 70 S6 29.54F
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 34 34 100 MISG 29.57F
LYNDONVILLE* LGT SNOW 42 41 97 CALM N/A VSB 3/4
MIDDLEBURY* LGT RAIN 50 46 87 SE13G18 29.46F
RUTLAND* LGT RAIN 46 45 93 S16 29.50S
SPRINGFIELD LGT RAIN 35 35 100 CALM 29.56F VSB 3/4
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 45 45 100 CALM 29.46F
NEWPORT* DRIZZLE 43 43 99 S5 29.53F
BENNINGTON LGT RAIN 60 54 80 S28G40 29.46S
ISLAND POND* N/A 41 N/A N/A E8 N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 37 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 45 N/A N/A SW2 N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 39 N/A N/A SE44G74 N/A WCI 25

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 43 41 93 SE10 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 46 45 93 SE21 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 48 46 93 S9 N/A

$$


Expires:No;;127081
FXUS61 KBTV 211414
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
914 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will continue to affect the region
through Saturday with widespread rainfall, strong gusty winds,
very mild temperatures and the threat of river flooding due to
snow melt. Behind this system sensible conditions quiet down by
Sunday into early next week as temperatures cool back toward
more typical late December values.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 902 AM EST Friday...Well not my ideal first day of winter
with moderate rainfall and warm temperatures, but we roll with
what mother nature provides us. Overall, forecast in great shape
this morning with periods of rain continuing to impact most of
our fa. This axis of heaviest rainfall will slowly shift east
and be mainly focused from the Eastern Dacks into
most of Vt by early this aftn. Still getting reports of some
icing travel across the deeper valleys of eastern/central and
northern VT, with bl temps holding just above freezing, and
cold ground temps. This threat should quickly abate in the next
1 to 2 hours.

Otherwise, 12z Albany sounding shows pw value of 1.41, which
breaks the record of 1.14 for 12z on 12/21 and indicates the
amount of available moisture in the atmosphere. This moisture
combined with numerous embedded short waves rotating around deep
full latitude trof will produce occasional rain today, with
storm total precip ranging from 1 to 2 inches across our cwa by
12z Sat., slightly less on downslope areas of the Greens/Dacks
This combined with snow melt will cause sharp rises on local
waterway with some minor to maybe localized moderate flooding
expected. Rivers will start responding shortly to rainfall, with
most reaching peak flow overnight tonight. So far thru 12z
rainfall has measured 0.40 at BTV, 0.81 at MSS, and near 0.50
for MVL/VSF/MPV. See latest PNS for latest rainfall and wind
gusts.

Wind advisory playing out really well with Mendon gusting to 49
mph, Wells 58 mph, Danby 51 mph, and Underhill Center 44 mph.
The core of strongest winds will occur now until early this
aftn.

Prior discussion...
Mainly a persistence forecast for this package with only minor
adjustments to expected winds, temperatures and rainfall. We
continue to monitor a deep, meridional longwave trough digging
through the Ohio Valley south to the northern Gulf Coast this
morning. Weakly consolidated low pressure centers are riding
northward on the front side of this feature in anomalously
robust southerly flow as evidenced by 92kt @ 500 mb on last
night's 00Z KCHS sounding. Ample diffluence and copious moisture
transport will continue to foster a steady light to
occasionally moderate rain across the area today into tonight,
though this will trend more showery across northern NY this
afternoon and into VT this evening as an associated dry slot
advects into the region. Temperatures will rise considerably
over yesterday's values (50s), peaking at near record values in
a few spots (see climate section below). This factor, combined
with 0.75 to 2.0 inches of expected rainfall will lead to rapid
snow melt across elevated terrain with latest NOHRSC modeled
SWE loss still averaging from 1-3 inches during the period. As
such, modest to sharp rises on area rivers are expected by later
today into tonight, several of which will approach or exceed
flood stage (see hydro section below). In terms of winds, our
Wind Advisory headlines for the northern Taconics and western
slopes of the Dacks/Greens remains in place from 500 am until
100 pm this afternoon. Latest hi-res CAM output maintains the
idea of gusty downslope winds from 40 to 50 mph will be likely
in favored terrain which may lead to scattered tree damage and
associated power outages. Finally, Winter Weather headlines for
light fzra remain in place across eastern VT through 500 am as
many spots continue to hover around or just above the freezing
mark. The advisory was cancelled for the SLV with current
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. Temperatures are expected
to continue to slowly rise across eastern VT through the pre-
dawn hours, and as such we anticipate being able to expire the
threat for additional icing accumulations in a few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 402 AM EST Friday...By Saturday, associated cold front
races east across the area as upper trough weakens and lifts
bodily northward through the area. Scattered to numerous rain
showers will slowly transition to snow showers from west to east
and become more focused in elevated terrain over time as
broader valleys tend to dry out. Temperatures will be quite
tricky given the front will be bifurcating the area at sunrise.
In general, highs (30s/40s) will be achieved in the early to mid
morning hours, then slowly fall into the afternoon. Snow
accumulations will be minor and generally from a dusting to two
inches across northern NY and in elevated terrain across the
northern Greens into Saturday evening.

Sensible weather then trends quiet by Saturday night into Sunday
with partly to variably cloudy skies and a more seasonably cold
temperature regime for late December. A weak shortwave impulse
approaching from the west by late Sunday will lead to an increase in
clouds and chances for snow showers across northern NY counties
toward day's end. Lows in the teens to lower 20s and highs from the
mid 20s to lower 30s are expected during this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 AM EST Friday...Sunday night through Monday we'll see
some scattered snow showers along with some lake effect snow
across Northern New York. The upper level shortwave should be
strong enough to squeeze out around an inch of snow across the
region leading to the potential for a White Christmas. After
Monday night high pressure builds in an we'll see an extended
period of quiet weather. Temps will be very seasonable with
highs in the 20s to low 30s and lows overnight in the teens to
low 20s. Late in the week we'll start to see the next system
develop and potentially bring more wind and rain but the spread
in guidance that far out leads to so wild variations on specific
details.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Expect a mix of VFR to LIFR conditions
during TAF period. Several impacts to aviation expected in the
next 12 to 24 hours with the most significant being moderate to
severe low level turbulence/shear as a strong low level jet
moves through the region. Precip will continue through the
afternoon, heavy at times occasionally producing 2-3 SM
visibilities before improving during the afternoon. Guidance
shows 55 to 65 knots jet at 2000 feet btwn 12z- 21z Friday,
resulting in areas of wind shear and turbulence, especially
around terrain, with some directional shear likely at KMSS as
surface winds prevail from the northeast. Ceilings and
visibility will improve at KBTV and KRUT through Friday as
southeast winds develop and downslope drying occurs.

Outlook...

Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance
SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Christmas Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 402 AM EST Thursday...We continue to monitor the threat
for significant river rises and potential mainstem river
flooding later today into tonight and Saturday morning. Using a
50/50 blend of global and hi-res output supports 48-hr rainfall
ending at 00Z Sunday to average from 0.75 to 2.0 inches. This
rainfall, combined with rapid snow melt from higher terrain on
the order of 1-3 inches will lead to enhanced runoff. Given the
nature of the runoff is leveraged over this longer time frame,
the highest threat of flooding exits in the mainstem river
channels and not as much in smaller streams. Per considerable
feedback from area managers ice cover is rather marginal in
these channels so the overall threat from ice jams is on the
lower side. Based off our current forecasts, most rivers should
crest later tonight and into the daytime hours on Saturday. The
Ausable, Mad, Missisquoi, Winooski, Mad and Otter Creek basins
appear most susceptible to flooding at this point based off
MMEFS NAEFS/GEFS data and NERFC output.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Below are record highs for today and tomorrow for selected sites. If
highs for tomorrow are broken, they'll likely occur in the pre-dawn
hours.

Date KBTV KMPV K1V4 KMSS KPBG KSLK
12-21 61|1957 56|1957 49|2012 62|1957 59|1957 55|1957
12-22 57|1990 58|1949 45|1998 63|1949 54|1967 55|1949

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for VTZ001>012-016>019.
     Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VTZ002-003-011-
     016>019.
NY...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.
     Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ028>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/Taber
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Deal
HYDROLOGY...JMG/Neiles
CLIMATE...JMG

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January 2010, Week 5
January 2010, Week 4
January 2010, Week 3
January 2010, Week 2
January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
January 2009, Week 5
January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
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October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
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January 2007, Week 1
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November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
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June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
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May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
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August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 4
June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
May 2005, Week 5
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May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
April 2005, Week 5
April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 1
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March 2004, Week 3
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February 2004, Week 3
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November 2002, Week 1
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October 2002, Week 3
October 2002, Week 2
October 2002, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
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January 2002, Week 3
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May 2001, Week 1
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March 2001, Week 5
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March 2001, Week 1
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December 1999, Week 5
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December 1998, Week 5
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