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SKIVT-L  December 2018, Week 3

SKIVT-L December 2018, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 18 Dec 2018 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (281 lines)

Expires:201812182100;;975915
FPUS51 KBTV 181128
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
624 AM EST Tue Dec 18 2018


VTZ006-182100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
624 AM EST Tue Dec 18 2018

.TODAY...Cloudy with a chance of snow showers this morning, then
partly sunny with a slight chance of snow showers this afternoon.
Highs around 17. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to
40 mph. Chance of snow 50 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 7 above. Northwest winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph until midnight, becoming light and
variable. 
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. Highs
around 30. Light and variable winds. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. Light and variable
winds. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. Light and variable
winds. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Rain likely or a chance of freezing rain. Lows
around 30. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Rain or freezing rain likely. Highs in the upper 40s.
Chance of precipitation 90 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Rain. Lows in the upper 30s. Chance of rain
90 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Rain or snow showers likely. Highs in the lower 40s.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Lows in the lower 20s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the upper 20s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 15. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the mid 20s. 

$$


Expires:201812181200;;976117
ASUS41 KBTV 181130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST TUE DEC 18 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-181200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    20   9  62 NW20G26   29.94R WCI   4          
MONTPELIER     LGT SNOW  14  11  87 NW15G25   29.85R FOG     WCI  -1  
MORRISVILLE    LGT SNOW  16   8  71 N14G23    29.88R WCI   2          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     17   9  70 MISG      29.79R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT SNOW  14  10  81 W12         N/A  WCI   1          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    19   7  60 N16G23    29.92R WCI   4          
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    19   7  59 NW15G24   29.86R WCI   5          
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    20   8  60 NW15G26   29.83R WCI   6          
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    17   9  69 NW6G21    29.97R WCI   9          
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    14   8  78 NW12G25   29.84R WCI   0          
BENNINGTON     FAIR      19   6  57 NW10G22   29.88R WCI   7          
ISLAND POND*     N/A     14 N/A N/A NW13        N/A  WCI   0          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     12 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     12 N/A N/A W5          N/A  WCI   4          
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      3 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     23  16  74 NW17G32     N/A  WCI   9          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     23  14  68 NW29        N/A  WCI   6          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     21   9  58 NW15G24     N/A  WCI   8          

$$


Expires:No;;976171
FXUS61 KBTV 181133
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
633 AM EST Tue Dec 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty northwest winds and chilly temperatures will prevail 
today as high pressure builds into the forecast area. 
Temperatures begin to moderate on Wednesday as winds turn 
southerly under partial sunshine. A strong storm system will 
bring widespread moderate rainfall, gusty winds and mild 
temperatures to the region by Friday and Saturday. The 
combination of rainfall and melting snow may lead to modest 
rises and possible ice movement on area rivers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 633 AM EST Tuesday...The forecast remains in good shape 
as we approach morning twilight. I did make slight adjustments 
to sky cover and hourly temperatures/dewpoints through late 
morning to account for the latest observational trends. However,
this did not affect the overall forecast in any appreciable 
manner. Have a great day.

Prior discussion...
A blustery, chilly day remains on tap for the forecast area as 
a tight pressure gradient remains in place between approaching 
high pressure and a departing winter storm across the Canadian 
Maritimes. Robust cold thermal advection along with a deeply 
mixed boundary layer should allow northwesterly wind gusts to 
continue in the 20 to 30 mph range for most areas through mid 
afternoon before speeds begin to abate toward early evening. 
High temperatures will struggle to climb only a few degrees 
above this morning's lows - topping out mainly from the mid 
teens to lower 20s. Snow shower activity will be most focused 
across the northern mountains through this morning, gradually 
abating over time by this afternoon as skies trend partly sunny 
in the broader valleys. Additional high elevation accumulations 
will be negligible and generally less than 2 inches. 

Quiet weather is then expected for tonight into Wednesday as 
aforementioned high slides overhead with nil PoPs and clear to 
partly cloudy skies. Lows tonight to range through the single 
digits in the mountains and from 8 to 15 above in the valleys as
winds trend light. Some guidance suggests a few favored spots 
may dip into the single digits below zero across the northern 
Greens/Dacks, but confidence is tempered by potential mid level 
moisture from 700-500 mb overnight which may limit full 
radiative effects. By Wednesday temperatures begin to moderate 
as the surface high slides off the VA/NC capes and boundary flow
backs to south/southwesterly. Using a multi-model consensus 
offers highs from the upper 20s to mid 30s in VT and in the 30s 
across northern NY counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 410 AM EST Tuesday...Dry weather continues as high 
pressure crests to the south of the forecast area. Expect 
southerly winds to pick up slightly and warm air advection to 
push temps well above normal for both lows wedensday night and 
highs on Thursday. Expect highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s 
with lows Wed night in the upper 20s.

Clouds ahead of our next system will start to thicken and by 
late Thursday we should be under overcast skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 410 AM EST Tuesday...The end of the work week looks to be
rather unsettled as a full latitude upper level trough digs in 
across the eastern half of CONUS. A corresponding inland surface
low develops over the Southern Appalachian Mountains and slowly
pushes towards the northeast Thursday evening. This will place 
us in deep southwest flow, ushering a moist airmass with PWATs 
2-3 standard deviations above normal. As the upper level trough
turns slightly negatively tiled the surface low starts to 
elongate along the spine of the Appalachian Mountains and brings
warm advection rainfall to the region. With rainfall starting 
to move into southern Vermont and parts of the North Country 
late Thursday night into Friday morning we'll see a mix of rain
and or freezing rain as the we'll be slowly coming out of the 
cold airmass during the middle of the week. Soundings show the 
warm layer should be strong enough to fully melt any 
hydrometeors so we shouldn't see any sleet or snow except for 
may some mountain summits greater than 3000'. Total ice 
accumulation's range from a couple hundreths to as much as two 
tenths east of the Greens so its possible we could be looking at
a low end winter weather advisory for late this week.

By Friday morning warm air temps will warm enough everywhere 
such that all sites should see just plain rain. Then the 
question becomes where does the dry slot push in because 
anywhere that the dry slot pushes in will have the chance to 
warm into the low 50s. Another challenge is the potential for 
some downsloping winds. The consensus of the models is that 
there should be a modestly strong low level jet that develops 
and pushes into the North Country but depending on the low track
and shape the winds could be slightly more southerly which 
would limit the amount of downsloping but could end up with more
channeled flow. So right now the idea is that we're paying 
attention to the potential for some gusty winds but we'll have 
to continue to monitor for more specifics.

The final challenge and perhaps the one with the most impact is
that with the warming temperatures we should see some ice 
movement on local area rivers. Thawing degree hours rise above 
250-300 for most of the North Country and so the combination of 
rainfall and thawing degree hours should mean that we'll see 
some ice break up. So we'll need to keep an eye out for any ice 
jams that form and certainly if you see one forming let us know!

The flow wraps around Saturday as the precip becomes more 
showery and orographically forced. With the northwest flow 
pushing temps back below freezing there's a chance we could see 
some backside snowfall behind all of the rain and warm air. Weak
ridging pushes in Sunday as briefly quieter weather moves in. 
Temperatures ending the weekend and starting off the next work 
week will be much cooler, with highs in the upper 20s to lower 
30s and lows in the teens and 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Gusty northwesterly winds to continue 
through 18Z today behind a strong polar front that passed 
through the area yesterday afternoon. Sustained winds from 12-20
kts and gusts from 18-30 kt likely during this period, 
gradually abating in the 18-00Z time frame. Low level 
turbulence likely on departures/approaches due to these winds. 
Scattered shsn with areas of blowing snow to continue across 
elevated terrain with MVFR cigs and occnl IFR vsbys through the 
15-18Z time frame, namely at KSLK/KMPV before conditions trend 
VFR. Mainly dry at other terminals including KBTV with mainly 
VFR conditions expected. Skies to trend SCT/SKC at all terminals
from 00Z Wednesday onward as winds abate to less than 10 kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance FZRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA,
Definite FZRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Likely SHSN.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EST Tuesday...A Lake Wind Advisory remains in 
effect today for northwesterly winds from 15 to 25 knots with 
higher gusts. This will create a moderate chop on open waters 
and in inlets with northwesterly exposures such as Shelburne 
Bay. These conditions may prove hazardous to small craft and 
those with recreational plans on the lake today should plan 
accordingly. Winds will abate by tonight into Wednesday leading 
to improving conditions.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...JMG

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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