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SKIVT-L  December 2018, Week 3

SKIVT-L December 2018, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 19 Dec 2018 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (264 lines)

Expires:201812192100;;023710
FPUS51 KBTV 191120
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
617 AM EST Wed Dec 19 2018


VTZ006-192100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
617 AM EST Wed Dec 19 2018

.TODAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s. Northwest winds
around 10 mph this morning, becoming light and variable. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then clearing. Lows around
15. Light and variable winds. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. Light and variable
winds. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Rain or a chance of freezing rain. Lows around 30.
Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of
precipitation 90 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Rain. Highs in the upper 40s. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph
with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows around 40. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Rain showers likely or snow showers. Little or no snow
accumulation. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation
80 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows in the lower 20s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the upper 20s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows 15 to 20. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the upper 20s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 15. 
.CHRISTMAS DAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 20s. 

$$


Expires:201812191200;;024365
ASUS41 KBTV 191130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST WED DEC 19 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-191200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      15   8  73 S3        30.10F                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR       8   7  95 CALM      30.06S                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR       5   3  91 S3        30.07S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     11   8  88 MISG      30.05S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR       9   7  89 CALM        N/A                   
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      11   7  82 CALM      30.10S                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      11   8  88 CALM      30.09S                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      14   9  80 CALM      30.07S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      12   8  85 CALM      30.11R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR       9   6  89 CALM      30.04S                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      10   6  84 CALM      30.10R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A      1 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A      3 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A      9 N/A N/A SW2         N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     10 N/A N/A NW3G21      N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     21  16  79 SE7         N/A  WCI  13          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     23  18  80 S16         N/A  WCI  10          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     19  14  79 S12         N/A  WCI   7          

$$


Expires:No;;023732
FXUS61 KBTV 191121
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
621 AM EST Wed Dec 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will crest across the region today into Thursday 
with partial sunshine and moderating temperatures. A strong 
storm system will affect the northeast Friday into Saturday with
breezy and very mild conditions along with periods of rain. 
Behind this system the weather trends quiet and seasonably 
colder as we progress into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 621 AM EST Wednesday...The forecast remains in good shape
as of early morning. The only change I made was to introduce 
some lower to mid level cloud cover along the immediate SLV 
through the late morning hours as southwesterly return flow and 
weak isentropic lift fosters some increased coverage here. This 
appears reasonable per latest GOES-R IR imagery. Have a great 
day.

Prior discussion...
Quiet weather is expected over the next 36 hours as high 
pressure moves across and east of the region along with nil 
PoPs. Skies will range from mostly clear to partly cloudy 
through much of the period as light southerly return flow 
becomes established over time. Temperatures will moderate as H5 
height/thickness fields rise considerably in advance of a 
anomalously sharp upper trough digging south through the 
Mississippi Valley and northern Gulf Coast states. Highs today 
to rebound nicely - ranging from the upper 20s to lower 30s 
across eastern VT and in the 30s from the Champlain Valley 
westbound. Tonight's lows will be a bit tricky given increasing 
southerly flow aloft. While favored hollows will tend to 
decouple, many valley locales will retain a marginally mixed 
lower boundary layer under 4-8 kts of southerly flow. For now I 
leaned toward a 60/40 blend of MOS and bias-corrected data 
offering values from 10- 15 across eastern VT and Dacks, and in 
the lower to mid 20s in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys. 
Keep in mind that under such scenarios wide temperature 
variability will likely exist across the area, both east to west
and from lower to higher elevations. By Thursday temperatures 
continue to moderate, topping out in the upper 30s to lower 40s 
east, and solidly in the 40s from the Champlain Valley west. 
Thickening clouds will encroach from the southwest toward early 
evening in advance of our next storm system, but our current 
forecast of partly cloudy should largely suffice at this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 353 AM EST Wednesday...A complex weather event will 
unfold heading into the weekend across the North Country as the 
system will bring wind, rain, pockets of freezing rain, river 
ice movement and possible river flooding. From a synoptic 
standpoint, a full latitude upper level trough will phase with 
a surface low pressure system leading to deep southwest moist 
flow across the North Country. As the first wave of modest warm 
advection rainfall enters the region there should still be some 
pockets of freezing temperatures generally east of the Greens 
and in the Saint Lawrence Valley leading to some freezing rain.
Warm advection continues through the overnight hours Thursday 
into Friday morning and all areas should see plain rain by early
Friday with the challenge becoming how widespread the coverage 
is during the daytime hours. A mid level dry slot looks to push 
into the region and should lead to reduced chances for rainfall 
by mid afternoon along with some orographic shadowing in the 
Champlain Valley. That should promote modest mixing and it will 
be a question of how high we mix to as there's going to be a 
fairly strong 850mb jet that pushes through the region on Friday
morning. Most of the guidance is still pointing to the idea 
that the low level jet will be out of the southeast which should
promote some enhanced downsloping winds. I've upped the 
forecast wind gusts generally in the favored areas for downslope
winds on the westerns side of the Greens and along the 
northwest side of the Adirondacks. Currently thinking we could 
see gusts as high as 30-35mph.

The warming temperatures will also be a problem for the snow 
pack as we should see 2-3 inches of snowmelt along with the 
rainfall. Coming out of a cold spell the snow won't be that ripe
initially to melt so we may see a delayed response from the 
snow melt. That should be beneficial in terms of not seeing
quite as sharp a rise on local area rivers. Currently thinking 
the snowpack should ripen up between 15z to 18z Friday however 
by that time the dry slot should be beginning to work into the 
region. So I think there's going to be some ice movement due to 
the precip runoff and warmer temps but delayed from the 
heaviest precip. We shall see but currently I'm leaning towards 
the idea that while there should be 2-4 foot rises on the river 
much of that should be able to stay within banks.

Temperatures are definitely a tricky forecast as we'll see 
strong warm advection through at least Friday night. So there's 
some pretty high bust potential depending on the dry slot. 
Current thinking is that we'll probably warm into the upper 40s 
to mid 50s on Friday and then hold pretty steady state heading 
into Friday night. Its certainly not out of the question that
areas that get into the dry slot could touch the upper 50s to
near 60. By midnight the flow should be slowing wrapping in 
from the north and west and the cold air advection will start to
drop temperatures. Even so I've still got the idea of temps 
only falling to the upper 30s to low 40s which is roughly 10 
degrees our normal high temperature for mid december. Cooler air
continues to push in from the northwest and the precip should 
become more showery and confined to the western slopes as we 
become more orographically forced. Our daytime high temps will 
likely be set right at 8am and temps should fall throughout the 
day leading to some snow mixing in on Saturday. Lingering precip
should come to an end on Saturday evening as the the low to 
finally starts to pull away.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 353 AM EST Wednesday...Sunday should be fairly quiet as 
the mid level moisture finally moves out of the region and 
other than some lake effect snow Sunday night into Monday the 
weather looks pretty quiet. Monday night we could see some snow 
showers develop as an upper level shortwave swings through but 
the forcing isn't that strong. High pressure returns Christmas 
Day along with quiet weather. Temps return closer to normal with
highs in the 20s to low 30s and lows in the teens to low 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 
Through 12Z Thursday...VFR/high pressure over the next 24 hours
with just some passing high clouds mainly above 200 AGL. No pcpn
is expected. The only exception will be some occnl BKN/OVC cigs
from 025-035 AGL at KMSS through the morning hours. Winds 
trending light south/southwesterly from 3-7 kts today, then 
mainly light after 00Z Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Definite RA, Chance FZRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Definite RA.
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Likely SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...JMG

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