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SKIVT-L  December 2018, Week 3

SKIVT-L December 2018, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 21 Dec 2018 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (285 lines)

Expires:201812212100;;122199
FPUS51 KBTV 211140
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
637 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018


VTZ006-212100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
637 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...Rain, breezy with highs in the lower 50s. Southeast winds
15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 50 mph, decreasing to 35 mph this
afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Rain until midnight, then showers likely after midnight.
Lows in the upper 30s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
30 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Rain showers likely in the morning. Cloudy with a chance
of snow showers. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches possible.
Highs around 40. Temperature falling into the upper 20s in the
afternoon. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, becoming west 15 to 20 mph
in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Lows around 19. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to
35 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 30. Northwest winds around
10 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows 15 to 20. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the upper 20s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows 10 to 15. 
.CHRISTMAS DAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 20s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 10 above. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 20s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 10 above. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 20s. 

$$


Expires:201812211200;;121805
ASUS41 KBTV 211130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-211200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  46  42  86 S6        29.61F                  
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  33  33 100 NW3       29.72F FOG              
MORRISVILLE    RAIN      35  35 100 SE3       29.70F FOG              
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     32  32 100 MISG      29.74F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT SNOW  33  33  98 CALM        N/A                   
MIDDLEBURY*    RAIN      47  43  86 SE9G23    29.58F                  
RUTLAND*       LGT RAIN  43  39  87 SE23G35   29.61F FOG              
SPRINGFIELD    MIX PCPN  32  32 100 CALM      29.73F VSB 1            
HIGHGATE*      LGT RAIN  41  40  95 SE12      29.60F                  
NEWPORT*       RAIN      34  34 100 CALM      29.71F                  
BENNINGTON     RAIN      53  47  79 SE31G41   29.56F                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     36 N/A N/A E1          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     32 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     37 N/A N/A SW2         N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     36 N/A N/A E52G66      N/A  WCI  19          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     46  41  81 SE23G32     N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     41  41 100 S9          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     41  41 100 MISG        N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;122211
FXUS61 KBTV 211141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
641 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will continue to affect the region 
through Saturday with widespread rainfall, strong gusty winds, 
very mild temperatures and the threat of river flooding due to 
snow melt. Behind this system sensible conditions quiet down by 
Sunday into early next week as temperatures cool back toward 
more typical late December values.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 641 AM EST Friday...Small adjustments to hourly 
temperatures and dewpoints were made at 630 am to nudge toward 
observational trends. Otherwise the forecast remains on track. 
Have seen peak wind gusts already in the 35 to 45 mph range 
across Rutland County w/i the past hour so current wind 
headlines appear right on track. Latest time lapse from our web 
cam just below Mansfield summit show the snow eating process has
also begun in earnest. Have a great day.

Prior discussion...
Mainly a persistence forecast for this package with only minor 
adjustments to expected winds, temperatures and rainfall. We 
continue to monitor a deep, meridional longwave trough digging 
through the Ohio Valley south to the northern Gulf Coast this 
morning. Weakly consolidated low pressure centers are riding 
northward on the front side of this feature in anomaslously 
robust southerly flow as evidenced by 92kt @ 500 mb on last 
night's 00Z KCHS sounding. Ample diffluence and copious moisture
transport will continue to foster a steady light to 
occasionally moderate rain across the area today into tonight, 
though this will trend more showery across northern NY this 
afternoon and into VT this evening as an asssociated dry slot 
advects into the region. Temperatures will rise considerably 
over yesterday's values (50s), peaking at near record values in 
a few spots (see climate section below). This factor, combined 
with 0.75 to 2.0 inches of expected rainfall will lead to rapid 
snow melt across elevated terrain with latest NOHRSC modelled 
SWE loss still averaging from 1-3 inches during the period. As 
such, modest to sharp rises on area rivers are expected by later
today into tonight, several of which will approach or exceed 
flood stage (see hydro section below). In terms of winds, our 
Wind Advisory headlines for the northern Taconics and western 
slopes of the Dacks/Greens remains in place from 500 am until 
100 pm this afternoon. Latest hi-res CAM output maintains the 
idea of gusty downslope winds from 40 to 50 mph will be likely 
in favored terrain which may lead to scattered tree damage and 
associated power outages. Finally, Winter Weather headlines for 
light fzra remain in place across eastern VT through 500 am as 
many spots continue to hover around or just above the freezing 
mark. The advisory was cancelled for the SLV with current 
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. Temperatures are expected 
to continue to slowly rise across eastern VT through the pre-
dawn hours, and as such we anticipate being able to expire the 
threat for additional icing accumulations in a few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 402 AM EST Friday...By Saturday, associated cold front 
races east across the area as upper trough weakens and lifts 
bodily northward through the area. Scattered to numerous rain 
showers will slowly transition to snow showers from west to east
and become more focused in elevated terrain over time as 
broader valleys tend to dry out. Temperatures will be quite 
tricky given the front will be bifurcating the area at sunrise. 
In general, highs (30s/40s) will be achieved in the early to mid
morning hours, then slowly fall into the afternoon. Snow 
accumulations will be minor and generally from a dusting to two 
inches across northern NY and in elevated terrain across the 
northern Greens into Saturday evening.

Sensible weather then trends quiet by Saturday night into Sunday 
with partly to variably cloudy skies and a more seasonably cold 
temperature regime for late December. A weak shortwave impulse 
approaching from the west by late Sunday will lead to an increase in 
clouds and chances for snow showers across northern NY counties 
toward day's end. Lows in the teens to lower 20s and highs from the 
mid 20s to lower 30s are expected during this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 AM EST Friday...Sunday night through Monday we'll see
some scattered snow showers along with some lake effect snow 
across Northern New York. The upper level shortwave should be 
strong enough to squeeze out around an inch of snow across the 
region leading to the potential for a White Christmas. After 
Monday night high pressure builds in an we'll see an extended 
period of quiet weather. Temps will be very seasonable with 
highs in the 20s to low 30s and lows overnight in the teens to 
low 20s. Late in the week we'll start to see the next system 
develop and potentially bring more wind and rain but the spread 
in guidance that far out leads to so wild variations on specific
details.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Expect a mix of VFR to LIFR conditions 
during the overnight hours. Several impacts to aviation expected
in the next 12 to 24 hours from moderate to severe low level 
turbulence/shear to minor icing possible at KMPV, KMSS, and 
KSLK. Precip will continue through the rest of the overnight 
hours occasionally producing 2-3 SM visibilities before 
improving during the daytime. Guidance shows 55 to 65 knots jet
at 2000 feet btwn 12z- 21z Friday, resulting in areas of 
wind shear and turbulence, especially around terrain, with some
directional shear likely at KMSS as surface winds prevail from 
the northeast. Ceilings and visibility will improve at KBTV and 
KRUT through Friday as southeast winds develop and downslope 
drying occurs.

Outlook...

Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance
SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Christmas Day: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 402 AM EST Thursday...We continue to monitor the threat 
for significant river rises and potential mainstem river 
flooding later today into tonight and Saturday morning. Using a 
50/50 blend of global and hi-res output supports 48-hr rainfall 
ending at 00Z Sunday to average from 0.75 to 2.0 inches. This 
rainfall, combined with rapid snow melt from higher terrain on 
the order of 1-3 inches will lead to enhanced runoff. Given the 
nature of the runoff is leveraged over this longer time frame, 
the highest threat of flooding exits in the mainstem river 
channels and not as much in smaller streams. Per considerable 
feedback from area managers ice cover is rather marginal in 
these channels so the overall threat from ice jams is on the 
lower side. Based off our current forecasts, most rivers should 
crest later tonight and into the daytime hours on Saturday. The 
Ausable, Mad, Missisquoi, Winooski, Mad and Otter Creek basins 
appear most susceptible to flooding at this point based off 
MMEFS NAEFS/GEFS data and NERFC output.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Below are record highs for today and tomorrow for selected sites. If 
highs for tomorrow are broken, they'll likely occur in the pre-dawn 
hours.

Date	KBTV     KMPV     K1V4     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK 
12-21 61|1957  56|1957  49|2012  62|1957  59|1957  55|1957 
12-22 57|1990  58|1949  45|1998  63|1949  54|1967  55|1949

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for VTZ001>012-016>019.
     Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VTZ002-003-011-
     016>019.
NY...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.
     Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ028>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Deal
HYDROLOGY...JMG/Neiles
CLIMATE...JMG

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July 2009, Week 5
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June 2009, Week 5
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June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
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May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
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March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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June 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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March 2008, Week 1
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February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
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October 2007, Week 5
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
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