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SKIVT-L  December 2018, Week 3

SKIVT-L December 2018, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 16 Dec 2018 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (250 lines)

Expires:201812162100;;876867
FPUS51 KBTV 161127
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
624 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018


VTZ006-162100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
624 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

.TODAY...Cloudy. A slight chance of snow this afternoon. Highs in
the mid 30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 20 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows in the
upper 20s. Light and variable winds. 
.MONDAY...Cloudy. A chance of snow showers in the morning, then snow
or rain showers likely in the afternoon. Snow accumulation a dusting
to 2 inches possible. Highs in the lower 30s. Light and variable
winds, becoming northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph in
the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Snow showers. Additional light snow accumulation.
Lows around 14. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to
30 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs around 19. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 10 above. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Rain or snow likely. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance
of precipitation 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Rain. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of rain 80 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Rain or snow likely. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of
precipitation 80 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Rain or snow showers likely. Highs in the upper 30s.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 

$$


Expires:201812161200;;877176
ASUS41 KBTV 161130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-161200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      26  24  92 CALM      30.20S                  
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    20  19  96 CALM      30.23S                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      20  19  96 CALM      30.21S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     21  21 100 MISG      30.21S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      20  19  96 CALM        N/A                   
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      25  23  93 CALM      30.19S                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      27  25  92 W6        30.17F WCI  20          
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      23  22  96 CALM      30.22S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      25  24  97 CALM      30.20S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      18  17  96 CALM      30.19F FOG              
BENNINGTON     FAIR      33  24  69 SE8       30.14S WCI  26          
ISLAND POND*     N/A     12 N/A N/A N1          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     16 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     18 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     25 N/A N/A E32         N/A  WCI   7          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     32  30  93 E6          N/A  WCI  26          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     32  32 100 S1          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     32  32 100 S5          N/A  WCI  27          

$$


Expires:No;;877649
FXUS61 KBTV 161144
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
644 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather is expected over the next 2 days as a series of 
disturbances bring periods of rain and snow to the region. A coastal 
system will bring rain and snow to central and southern areas this 
evening, and an upper trough approaching from the northwest will 
bring valley rain and mountain snow showers to the entire area 
Monday and Monday night. Tuesday through Thursday will be dry under 
high pressure, before chances increase for additional mixed 
precipitation Thursday night into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 339 AM EST Sunday...An active and complex pattern is expected
across the North Country for the next 36 hours with little overall
change from the previous forecast thinking for todays package. Early
morning satellite and surface analysis shows vertically stacked low
pressure over the Tennessee River Valley with a ridge of high
pressure holding tough over northern New England. We've seen mainly
clear skies through the overnight thus far, and even some patchy fog
as dewpoints remained surprisingly high despite clear skies. Moving
through the day, mid/high level moisture increases over the region
in the form of a cirrus deck as the low shifts northeast to the
Atlantic coast, but low level moisture looks to hold south of the
forecast area until after sunset, so a dry day is expected for most.
With overnight temps generally mild for mid-December, it won't be
hard for max temps in the mid/upper 30s to be realized under
filtered sunshine.

Tonight, enhanced low level moisture associated with warm air
advection moving north of the aforementioned coastal low will shift
into our central and southern zones. Models continue to differ
slightly on the depth of a warm nose aloft and the strength of
cooling at the surface, but the consensus appears to be that when
precipitation begins to fall, the column will wet-bulb to support
either all snow or perhaps a brief period of a rain/snow mix. Beyond
about 02Z the atmosphere will be sufficiently cooled to support all
snow, but by then deep layer moisture will be shifting east of the
region as the low tracks off towards the benchmark. The result will
be a quick shot of snow from central VT southward through midnight
with accumulations generally in the 1-2" range and perhaps a couple
more inches across the higher terrain of Rutland/Windsor counties.

Quick break in the action is expected Monday morning as the coastal
low continues to move east offshore and we await the arrival of a
potent shortwave trough approaching from the northwest. By around
the noon hour or so, a mix of valley rain and mountain snow showers
will begin to develop across the area and continue through the
remainder of the day with precipitation mainly focused over the
upslope favored higher terrain of the northern Adirondacks and
northern Greens. Due to marginal boundary layer temperatures, snow
accumulations will be light with only a dusting expected in the
valleys and perhaps 1-2" across the higher terrain. The event
continues into Monday night with additional accumulations expected,
and we touch more on that below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 339 AM EST Sunday...Upslope flow is in full swing Monday night
as shortwave trough moves off to the southeast and northwest flow
aloft develops in its wake. Stronger flow aloft creates a Froude
number greater than one, which indicates unblocked flow and favors
snow not only on the upslope side of the mountains...but the
downslope side as well. Most favorable upslope conditions last
through about midnight Monday night...then start to slowly become
more concentrated over the highest terrain by Tuesday morning. Light
upslope snow on Tuesday should come to an end during the afternoon
hours. Expecting the northern Adirondacks of New York and the
northern half of Vermont to see anywhere from 1 to 4 inches of snow
starting Monday afternoon, but continuing Monday night into early
Tuesday. The highest portions of the northern Green Mountains in
Vermont could see as much as 6 inches of new snow. Accompanying the
northwest flow aloft will be cold air advection. Lows Monday night
will be in the single digits and teens with highs on Tuesday in the
upper teens to mid 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 339 AM EST Sunday...High pressure builds into the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This will lead to clearing
skies and light winds...which will result in lows falling into the
single digits and lower teens. Should see a few spots in the
northern Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom of Vermont getting just
below zero. High pressure remains over the area Wednesday and
Wednesday night...then shifts east of the area on Thursday.
Expecting a gradual warming trend during this period with highs in
the upper 20s to mid 30s on Wednesday and then in the upper 30s to
lower 40s on Thursday. The warmer air is in response to a more
pronounced southerly flow pattern as large upper trough becomes
established to our west. Trends in the data suggest precipitation
moving up in the southerly flow will start to move into the region
Thursday night. Clouds and precipitation in the southerly
flow...along with warmer temperatures aloft...suggest minimum
temperatures will not fall to much from their highs on Thursday.
Thus looking at some rain and snow Thursday night before
midnight...then transitioning to rain at all locations as warming
temperatures develop during the overnight hours. Highs on Friday
will be in the 40s with precipitation again being in the form of
rain. Stronger flow aloft suggests it will be windy as
well...especially over the higher terrain. Upper trough remains to
our west Friday night so looking at mainly rain...but the trough
will begin moving eastward later Friday night into Saturday and we
could start to see some snow mixing back in...especially over
northern New York as cooler air moves in.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Widespread VFR conditions will prevail 
through the first half of the forecast period with high clouds 
slowly increasing from south to north through the day. After 
00Z, conditions will begin to deteriorate across central 
southern areas as a mix of rain and snow moves into the region 
from the south. Mixed precip will mainly affect KRUT and KMPV 
where MVFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR vsby are expected through 06Z,
then mainly MVFR ceiling thereafter as snow dissipates. 
Elsewhere, VFR will persist through 06-09Z then trend to MVFR. 
Winds light and variable less than 6 knots for all sites except
KRUT where southeast winds will increase to 8-12kts after 18Z.

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance
SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance RA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Lahiff

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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
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June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
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April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
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March 2008, Week 2
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February 2008, Week 5
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January 2008, Week 3
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December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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September 2007, Week 1
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July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
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March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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