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SKIVT-L  December 2018, Week 3

SKIVT-L December 2018, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 17 Dec 2018 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (252 lines)

Expires:201812172100;;925888
FPUS51 KBTV 171126
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
622 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2018


VTZ006-172100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
622 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

.TODAY...Cloudy. A chance of snow showers this morning, then snow
likely this afternoon. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches.
Highs in the mid 30s. Light and variable winds, becoming northwest
10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph this afternoon. Chance of snow
70 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Snow. Additional snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Lows
around 14. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
Chance of snow near 100 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Cloudy. Snow likely in the morning, then a chance of snow
showers in the afternoon. Total snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches
possible. Highs around 18. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts
up to 35 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 8 above. Northwest winds
10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. West winds around
10 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Rain or freezing rain likely. Lows in the lower
30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Rain or freezing rain. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of
precipitation 90 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 30s. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Rain showers likely. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...A chance of snow or rain showers likely. Lows in
the lower 20s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the upper 20s. 

$$


Expires:201812171200;;926179
ASUS41 KBTV 171130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST MON DEC 17 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-171200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    35  27  72 S5        29.72S WCI  31          
MONTPELIER     FLURRIES  29  27  92 CALM      29.73S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    30  27  88 CALM      29.71F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     30  28  92 MISG      29.70F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT SNOW  29  26  88 CALM        N/A                   
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    32  29  88 CALM      29.72F                  
RUTLAND*       MIX PCPN  31  30  96 CALM      29.72F                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    31  31 100 CALM      29.72F FOG              
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    32  29  90 CALM      29.71F                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    27  26  95 CALM      29.69F                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    33  31  92 CALM      29.72S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     30 N/A N/A E2          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     28 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     28 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     25 N/A N/A W8          N/A  WCI  16          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     36  32  87 SE7         N/A  WCI  30          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     37  32  81 S13         N/A  WCI  29          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     34  32  93 SE6         N/A  WCI  29          

$$


Expires:No;;926404
FXUS61 KBTV 171136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
636 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper trough approaching from the northwest will provide the 
region with scattered to numerous snow showers this afternoon and 
tonight, with several inches of accumulation likely above 1000 feet. 
High pressure will bring drying conditions for Tuesday through 
Thursday, before low pressure moving up the east coast brings 
mixed precipitation Thursday night and rain Friday into 
Saturday, along with temperatures well above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 341 AM EST Monday...Overall forecast for the next 36 hours
remains on track with the main weather highlights being an upper
trough passage this afternoon and tonight followed up by an upper
ridge and surface high pressure building in for Tuesday. Morning
water vapor imagery shows the North Country essentially in a col
with a vertically stacked low over the benchmark and an approaching
upper trough digging southeastward through central Ontario. There's
some lingering snow showers across southern Vermont associated with
the coastal low, but moving towards sunrise that activity should
wane as the low shifts east of the benchmark with a brief period of
dry conditions expected area-wide through the mid-morning hours.
Shortwave energy rounding the base of the approaching trough begins
to shift into northern New York after the noon hour and then into
Vermont around the evening commute with winds increasing from the
northwest. This is when we'll see upslope snow shower activity
increase in coverage across the higher terrain of the Adirondacks
and northern Vermont which will blossom during the overnight hours.
Based on forecast froude numbers, the low level flow will be largely
unblocked so the highest accumulations are expected to be along and
downwind of the mountain spines where a general 1-3" is expected
above 1000 feet, and up to 6" above 2500 feet by sunrise Tuesday.
Valley locations below 500 feet are likely to see no more than a
dusting, with around an inch or two possible between 500-1000 feet.

Some lingering high elevation snow showers are possible Tuesday, but
by and large the forecast trends drier through the day as an upper
ridge and surface high pressure begins to build in from the west.
Low level moisture remains abundant though so don't expect to see
much in the way of sunshine. Perhaps it'll break out a bit towards
sunset in the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys, but don't hold
your breath. Temps today will continue to be slightly above normal
in the mid/upper 30s, but fall back to near normal tonight behind
the trough passage with lows in the teens expected. Blustery
conditions will keep temps in the teens to low 20s on Tuesday with
northwesterly wind gusts in the 20-30 mph range making it feel like
the single digits.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EST Monday...Quiet weather returns for mid week as
surface high pressure crests atop, then east of the region 
Tuesday night into Wednesday as it slides offshore into the 
western Atlantic waters. Clear to partly cloudy skies are 
expected during this period with nil PoPs. Lows Tuesday night 
will be the coldest of our 7-day forecast stretch and with 
expected decent radiational cooling I leaned more toward a bias-
corrected MOS consensus. This supports values in the single 
digits across the northern mountains and around 10 above in the 
broader valleys, give or take a degree or two. By Wednesday 
temperatures rebound nicely as return southerly flow and 
building heights aloft push readings some 10-15 degrees above 
Tuesday highs - mainly 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM EST Monday...Most active stretch of weather to 
then take shape by late week into next weekend as an 
increasingly high amplitude upper flow pattern develops across 
the eastern third of the nation. A sharply digging upper trough 
will take shape to our west across the Mississippi Valley and 
trudge slowly east into next weekend with high precipitation 
chances. Models have all locked in on a surface low track to our
west from the ArkLaTex region north-northeast into the eastern 
Great Lakes. This will put our area solidly into the warm sector
of this system as we progress from later Thursday into Friday 
night. As precipitation arrives Thursday night cooler portions 
of eastern VT and sheltered valleys of the Dacks will likely see
a period of light freezing rain before a transition to all rain
overnight and especially from Friday mid-morning onward. 
Sounding profiles show this potential quite nicely with snow 
probabilities quite low given such strong warm thermal advection
aloft. The broader Champlain and St Lawrence Valleys should be 
mild enough so precipitation will start and remain all rain. 
24-hour QPF from 06Z Friday to 06Z Saturday during the core of 
the event remains one of lower confidence at this point however 
with expected stronger southeasterly flow/orographic effects and
the potential for an enhanced dry slot. Time will tell. 

In terms of temperatures, readings will trend quite mild with highs 
Thursday through Saturday in the upper 30s to mid 40s with the 
potential for a few spots to near 50F on Friday. Lows to mainly 
range through the 30s Thursday night, then upper 30s to lower 40s 
Friday night.

By Saturday the primary cold front will sweep in from the 
west/southwest and lead to gradual cooling under modest cold thermal 
advection. Scattered to numerous rain showers during the day on 
Saturday should transition to scattered terrain focused snow showers 
by Saturday night into Sunday as coverage wanes over time. By Sunday 
into Monday temperatures ease back toward more typical late December 
norms as highs top out in the upper 20s/lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Trend through the day will be towards
widespread MVFR ceilings with local IFR at KSLK through 18Z.
Additionally, VFR vsby this morning will continue for most 
sites through the period, except for KSLK/KMPV/KRUT where light 
snow will reduce vsby to IFR, most persistently at KSLK and 
KMPV. Light snow ends late in the period towards sunrise 
tomorrow, with MVFR ceilings persisting into Tuesday. Light 
winds this morning trend WNW after 15Z and will gust over 20kts 
after 20Z.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Likely RA, Likely FZRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite RA,
Definite FZRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Lahiff

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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June 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
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March 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
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October 2004, Week 1
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July 2004, Week 5
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July 2004, Week 3
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January 2004, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
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February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
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