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SKIVT-L  December 2018, Week 5

SKIVT-L December 2018, Week 5

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 29 Dec 2018 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (235 lines)

Expires:201812292100;;527725
FPUS51 KBTV 291126
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
623 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018


VTZ006-292100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
623 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

.TODAY...Cloudy. A chance of rain or snow showers this morning, then
a chance of snow showers this afternoon. Highs in the lower 40s.
Temperature falling into the lower 20s this afternoon. Northwest
winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation
50 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 4 above. Northwest winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph until midnight, becoming light and
variable. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 20s. Light and variable
winds. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 16. South winds around
10 mph. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. South winds around
10 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Rain with possible freezing rain or snow or sleet
likely. Light snow accumulation. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of
precipitation 90 percent. 
.NEW YEARS DAY...Cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers. Highs
in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 10 above. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs around 20. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows zero to 5 above zero. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 20s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows 10 to 15. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the lower 30s. 

$$


Expires:201812291200;;528033
ASUS41 KBTV 291130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SAT DEC 29 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-291200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    46  33  60 W14G24    29.74R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    42  37  82 VRB3      29.74R                  
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    43  34  70 S8G18     29.72R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     34  34 100 MISG      29.67R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    37  37  99 N8          N/A  WCI  31          
MIDDLEBURY*    DRIZZLE   42  35  75 S3        29.80R                  
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    44  35  70 W13G28    29.79R                  
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    41  39  93 W15G28    29.75R                  
HIGHGATE*      DRIZZLE   43  37  78 W7G17     29.73R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    41  34  75 SW12G21   29.70R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    43  33  68 W8G20     29.85R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     43 N/A N/A W9          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     34 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     32 N/A N/A W43G56      N/A  WCI  15          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     43  36  75 SW17G26     N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     46  34  61 W23         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     48  34  57 MISG        N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;519952
FXUS61 KBTV 290828
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
328 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A reinforcing cold front will cross the region today, along with
some scattered light rain and snow showers. Precipitation will
end by this evening. Colder weather will then return for tonight
and tomorrow. Another system will impact the area for Monday
night into Tuesday, bringing more mixed precipitation for New
Years Eve.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 307 AM EST Saturday...A cold front will push across our 
region today, bringing more scattered light rain and snow 
showers before ending this evening. Winds have been gusty 
overnight out ahead of this feature, and will remain brisk 
behind the front as well, temperatures falling through the day. 
As cold front moves across the area today, temperatures will 
drop sharply behind the front as winds veer to northwesterly. 
Will see a bit of upslope northwesterly flow snow showers in the
typical spots, though accumulations will be light. Cold air 
advection along and behind the boundary with increasing 
instability in the low-levels will result in a blustery, chilly 
day . Temperatures will fall through the day, and by Saturday 
afternoon wind chills will reach the single digits to low teens.

Temperatures will be cold tonight and Sunday with cold high 
pressure ridging over the North country. Winds will weaken and 
skies begin to clear. Think we could have a bit of fog around 
during the second half of the overnight, but not confident 
enough to mention in forecast right now. Model soundings still 
showing a bit of an inversion to prevent this. Some westerly 
flow across Lake Ontario Saturday along with some vorticity
advection could spur some light lake effect snow showers, 
though not sure it will make it into our area yet.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 311 AM EST Saturday...First part of the short term is
quiet with 1026mb high pres moving across our cwa. This results
in a cool and dry Sunday Night into Monday forecast with lows
from near 10f to 20f, while highs warm into the 30s on Monday.

On Monday Night southern stream short wave energy will help
enhance sfc low pres over the MS River Valley, while 850 to
500mb moisture rapidly overspreads the NE CONUS. Developing
south to southwest 925mb to 700mb flow will much warmer air
north toward our cwa, with the 925mb to 850mb 0c near the
international border by 06z Tuesday. This strong low level waa
suggestions another messy wintry mix event with snow/sleet
changing to freezing rain and rain as strong southwest 850mb jet
of 50 to 60 knots enhanced low level waa. Have noted a slight
shift south in sfc low pres track from near KBUF to KBTV Monday
Night, which may produce northerly BL winds and enough shallow
low level cold air to cause a freezing rain threat across the
northern St Lawrence/CPV. Still some uncertainty on amount of
low level cold air and timing of warming aloft, so have just ran
with superblend temps for now and will fine tune once system is
captured by Nested NAM and BTV 4km better. Looks like an
advisory type event for part of the area late Monday into Tues.
Temps mainly in the upper 20s to mid 30s overnight. Have pops
near 100% for Monday Night, as guidance in good agreement its
going to precip, some timing differences when precip starts,
which 00z guidance has delayed until 00z Tues.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 311 AM EST Saturday...Mid/upper level dry slot quickly
develops from west to east btwn 12z-18z Tuesday, with steadier
precip becoming more showery. As sfc low pres races into central
Maine, moderate low level caa develops on brisk northwest winds
and 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles drop by 0c entire cwa by 18z
Tues. Expect any linger precip to change back to snow, with
maybe some minor accumulation possible in the mountains. Fast
confluent flow aloft develops from Great Lakes into NE CONUS for
midweek with weak embedded shortwaves and ribbons of mid level
moisture. This may produce a few light mainly mountain snow
showers, but overall forecast should remain dry with near
seasonable temps. Next southern stream system arrives toward
late week, with warming profiles. Looks like another messy mix
as cold air remains locked in central Canada. Plenty of time for
track and thermal profiles to change. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Wide variety of conditions expected over 
the next 24 hours. Worst conditions to occur east of the Green 
Mountains, most notably at KMPV where occasional IFR 
visibilities and ceilings will persist into the overnight hours 
under light winds. Elsewhere, generally a mix of VFR/MVFR 
depending on location. Scattered to numerous showers to 
reblossom at northern terminals in the 08-15Z time frame as cold
front pushes northwest to southeast through the area. Scattered
rain/snow showers most likely at KSLK/KMSS with this feature. 
Winds generally south/southwesterly 6-12 kts and occasionally 
gusty at selected terminals through 12Z, veering northwesterly 
8-12 kts with gusts to 20 kts or so from 12Z onward as ceilings 
trend VFR into the afternoon hours behind the frontal passage.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance RA, Chance SN, Chance FZRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
FZRA, Definite SN, Likely RA.
New Years Day: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance SN, Chance FZRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Neiles

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
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