Expires:201812312100;;627642
FPUS51 KBTV 311054
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
550 AM EST Mon Dec 31 2018


VTZ006-312100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
550 AM EST Mon Dec 31 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST TUESDAY...

.TODAY...Partly sunny. A chance of snow this afternoon. Highs in the
mid 30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 30 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Snow. Rain after midnight. Snow accumulation of 2 to
4 inches. Lows in the upper 20s. South winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts
up to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. 
.NEW YEARS DAY...Rain in the morning, then rain showers likely or a
chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Additional snow
accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Breezy with highs in the upper
30s. Temperature falling to around 30 in the afternoon. West winds
20 to 25 mph, becoming northwest 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Chance of precipitation 90 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 2 above. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs around 13. Northwest winds around 10 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 5 above. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the upper 20s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 20. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the mid 30s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows in the lower 20s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs around 30. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows 15 to 20. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs around 30. 

$$


Expires:201812311200;;629772
ASUS41 KBTV 311130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST MON DEC 31 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-311200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    31  24  75 S5        30.25R WCI  26          
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    25  23  92 CALM      30.26R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    23  22  96 CALM      30.26R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     23  19  85 MISG      30.25R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    23  17  79 CALM        N/A                   
MIDDLEBURY*    MOCLDY    30  25  81 CALM      30.25S                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      28  24  85 SE7       30.25S WCI  21          
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    24  23  96 CALM      30.29R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    31  26  81 S5        30.24R WCI  26          
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    25  21  83 S3        30.24R                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      24  22  91 CALM      30.25S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     19 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     21 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     21 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     21 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     32  28  86 S14         N/A  WCI  22          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     32  30  93 S21         N/A  WCI  20          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     32  28  86 SE14        N/A  WCI  22          

$$


Expires:No;;622497
FXUS61 KBTV 310901
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
401 AM EST Mon Dec 31 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will track along the Saint Lawrence 
valley tonight bringing a mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet and 
snow to the region. Three to five inches of snow is expected 
from the spine of the Greens eastward. A tenth of an inch or 
less of ice is expected in the Northern Saint Lawrence valley 
and in the higher elevations. Valleys will mostly just see rain,
half an inch or less. The rest of the forecast will feature 
warmer than normal temperatures and quiet weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 344 AM EST Monday...A low pressure system over the 
central US will track Northeastward and make it to the southern 
Great Lakes by 00z. As the low lifts north, our region will be 
under warm air advection with increasing temperatures and clouds
out ahead of the system. By late in the day, have mentioned a 
chance for showers along our southwestern zones. Low pressure 
system will continue to track northeastward and end up just 
North of the VT/NH border by 12z Tuesday. As the low lifts 
through the Saint Lawrence valley, widespread stratiform 
precipitation will overspread our entire forecast area. The 
higher elevations should start out with snow or a mix of sleet 
and snow, while the deeper valleys will have a mix of rain and 
snow. Will see a gradual change over to all rain as more warm 
air moves into the area, though snow will hang on the longest 
east of the Greens. Precipitation will move north of the area 
pretty quickly, with precipitation ending by about 12z Tuesday. 
Some lingering snow showers are expected as flow turns more 
northwesterly during the day on Tuesday. Will have a very small 
spread of temperatures from today through Tuesday, highs in the 
30s today with a few spot 40 readings. Mild temperatures tonight
with increasing clouds and precipitation spreading across the 
area, generally upper 20s to mid 30s. Then Tuesday temperatures 
will drop through the day, high temperatures early in the day 
will be around the mid 30s to mid 40s, dropping into the teens 
and 20s by evening. Will have a strong southwesterly 850 jet 
over the area tonight, resulting in some higher gusts, 
especially in the higher elevations. These winds will not all 
mix down to the surface since precipitation will be steady at 
that time. Highest elevations of the Dacks and Greens could see 
gusts in the 50-60 kt range, but most of our area will only have
gusts to about 35 kts. Total snowfall will be about 2-5 inches 
east of the Greens and in the higher elevations of the Dacks. 
Ice accumulation will be greatest in the Massena area, about a 
tenth of an inch or less. Overall rainfall totals will be a half
an inch or less. Isolated power outages are possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 AM EST Monday...Low-level cold advection will linger 
into Tuesday night in northwesterly flow regime, until sfc ridge
axis settles across nrn NY and nwrn VT toward daybreak on 
Wednesday. May see a few lingering snow showers 00-03Z 
Wednesday, but combination of subsidence and strong drying 
should yield clearing skies rather quickly during the course of 
Tuesday night. With diminishing winds late, should see decent 
radiational cooling effects as well, with early Wednesday AM low
temperatures generally in the single digits above zero, and 
locally below zero in the normally colder spots within the 
northern Adirondack region and far nern VT. 

Wednesday will feature quiet and mostly sunny conditions as sfc 
anticyclone and shortwave ridging crest over NY and New England 
during the daylight hours. That said, sunshine will be rather 
ineffective with 850mb temps around -15C, and anticipate Wednesday 
being the coldest day of the week, with afternoon high temperatures 
generally in the teens. PoPs NIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 AM EST Monday...Surface anticyclone translates east 
of New England Wednesday night, which begins a gradual 
moderating trend in temperatures for later this week. Anticipate
lows in the single digits to lower teens for Wednesday night, 
likely warmest in the Champlain Valley aided by a developing 
light southerly flow. Will see highs generally 27-32F during the
day Thursday, and possibly into the mid-upr 30s for Friday. 
We'll see a confluent mid-upr level flow regime between the 
northern and southern branches of the jet late in the week. At 
this point, it appears a relatively strong srn branch closed low
will remain south of the region Friday night into Saturday as 
it remains unphased from weaker northern stream features. 
Appears to be better consistency on this scenario between the 
00Z GFS and ECMWF compared to previous model cycles. Carried 
just chances for snow showers (perhaps mixed with a bit of rain 
in the lower valleys of western VT) for Friday and Saturday, and
anticipate just light QPF based on present indications. 
Anticipate high temperatures in the low-mid 30s for the first 
weekend of 2019.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Conditions will be predominantly VFR 
through 00z, then conditions begin to deteriorate from southwest
to northeast as precipitation moves into our area between 
00-06z. Overcast mid-clouds currently over the region will 
persist through the overnight hours before lifting northeast out
of the area towards 18Z. At the same time, high clouds will 
increase from southwest to northeast so BKN-OVC ceilings 
continue but remain VFR. Winds will be light and variable 
through the overnight and trend south/southwest at less than 10 
knots Monday afternoon. Have a variety of p-types mentioned 
after 00z, and will fine tune details as we get closer.

Outlook...

New Years Day: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance SN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST 
     Tuesday for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-018-019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST 
     Tuesday for NYZ026-027-030-031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Neiles

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