Expires:201901042100;;837137
FPUS51 KBTV 041126
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
623 AM EST Fri Jan 4 2019
VTZ006-042100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
623 AM EST Fri Jan 4 2019
.TODAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of flurries this morning. Highs in
the upper 30s. Southwest winds around 10 mph.
.TONIGHT...Cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. Southwest winds around
10 mph until midnight, becoming light and variable.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly
sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. Light and variable winds.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows in the mid 20s. West winds around 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs around 30. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
30 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows zero to 5 above zero.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 20.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Snow likely. Lows around 10 above. Chance of snow
70 percent.
.TUESDAY...Snow likely. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of snow
70 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Snow showers likely. Lows in the lower 20s. Chance
of snow 70 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Snow showers likely. Highs in the upper 20s. Chance of
snow 60 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Lows 10 to 15.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the lower 20s.
$$
Expires:201901041200;;837380
ASUS41 KBTV 041130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI JAN 04 2019
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-041200-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON MOCLDY 33 26 75 S14 29.81S WCI 23
MONTPELIER FAIR 28 23 81 S8 29.81F WCI 20
MORRISVILLE FAIR 27 25 92 CALM 29.79F
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 29 26 89 MISG 29.80S
LYNDONVILLE* MOCLDY 26 24 93 S5 29.80F WCI 20
MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 32 25 74 S9G17 29.83F WCI 24
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 33 24 69 VRB5 29.87S WCI 29
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 29 27 92 NW5 29.87S WCI 24
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 32 28 83 S10 29.79S WCI 24
NEWPORT* CLOUDY 28 25 88 S8 29.77S WCI 20
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 33 22 63 CALM 29.89S
ISLAND POND* N/A 28 N/A N/A N7 N/A WCI 21
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 25 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 27 N/A N/A SW3 N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 21 N/A N/A SW32 N/A WCI 2
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 34 30 86 S21G29 N/A WCI 22
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 34 30 86 SW21 N/A WCI 22
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 34 28 80 S21 N/A WCI 22
$$
Expires:No;;829445
FXUS61 KBTV 040815
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
315 AM EST Fri Jan 4 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper-level disturbance passing north of the International
Border will spread scattered light snow showers across northern New
York and northern Vermont this morning. However, developing south to
southwest low-level winds today will allow temperatures to moderate,
reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s in most valley sections by this
afternoon. A southern stream system, over the Arklatex early this
morning, will slide off the mid-Atlantic coast and south of New
England on Saturday. There is a chance for light mixed wintry
precipitation with this system across south-central Vermont, but any
significant precipitation is expected to remain south of the North
Country.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 314 AM EST Friday...The North Country remains in a west-
northwesterly mid-level flow regime, with an embedded shortwave
trough across srn Quebec brining some light snow shower activity
across far nrn NY and VT early this morning. May see a quick
dusting to half inch across northern areas, but overall trend
will be for decreasing coverage of snow showers by mid-late AM
as broad south to southwesterly low-level flow develops. This
weakens overall low- mid level convergence across the region,
with just variably cloudy skies for the balance of the day
(highest cloud cover across the far north) and a few flurries
across the nrn summits. The S-SW gradient flow increases during
the daylight hrs, and should see sustained winds of 10-20mph
with gusts to 25mph from late morning thru the afternoon hrs,
especially in the Champlain Valley and points west. This also
allows temperatures to moderate, and temperatures have been
slowly rising overnight, reaching 32F at BTV at 08Z. Should see
afternoon highs mainly in the upr 30s to lower 40s.
Generally quiet tonight, but strengthening low-level inversion in
model forecast soundings and diminishing winds should allow low
stratus to redevelop, especially across the far north. May also see
a bit of light fog/BR around during the overnight hrs with vsby 4-
6SM in spots. Overnight lows generally expected in the mid-upr 20s.
Southern stream system - currently over the Arklatex region early
this AM - passes eastward off the mid-atlantic coast and south of
New England on Saturday. May see just the northern fringe of
associated stratiform precipitation across s-central VT, with
conditional probability of IP/ZR/R mix across Rutland/Windsor
counties Saturday afternoon for a few hrs. With PoPs only 20-40%,
not expecting any significant impacts, and temperatures once again
generally warm above freezing with highs mainly mid-upr 30s. Cloud
cover will be most significant across ern/srn portions of the
forecast area, with partly sunny conditions possible across nwrn VT
and portions of northern NY for Saturday, with light northerly
gradient winds expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 AM EST Friday...A northern stream shortwave at the
base of an amplifying trough will push through the northeastern
United States Saturday night. Positive vorticity advection
associated with the feature and favorable upper-level jet
placement will provide enough deep lift to support some snow
showers overnight in the North Country. Despite the favorable
dynamics however, deep moisture will be limited. At this point,
looking like the best chances for an inch or two of snow will be
over the northwestern Adirondacks and northwestern Green
Mountains in the overnight to morning hours. Snow showers will
taper off during the afternoon Sunday as the better forcing
moves east of the area.
Cold air advection will be ongoing through the day Sunday as
westerly winds veer to the northwest. 850 mb temperatures will
fall to below -15C by Sunday afternoon. Highs Sunday (upper 20s
to low 30s) will occur late in the morning before temperatures
begin a downward spiral through the evening hours. Surface based
mixing will allow for gusty northwesterly winds 10 to 20 mph to
develop during the afternoon with gusts 20 to 30 mph possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 305 AM EST Friday...Canadian High pressure to our northwest
will edge eastward Sunday night. Given the center of the
anticyclone will remain well to our north across the
International Border, the pressure gradient between this
aforementioned high and departing (but strengthening) low
pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will still be strong enough
to maintain some northerly winds overnight. This will keep
ongoing cold air advection through the night before overnight
lows in the single digits are reached around sunrise Monday
morning. During the day Monday, clouds will increase ahead of
the next approaching low and warm air advection will commence as
the Canadian High shifts to our northeast.
Attention then turns to the next system to impact the North Country
with widespread precipitation starting Monday night. Low
pressure tracking across the Great Lakes Region Monday night
will result in increasing warm air/moisture advection and
isentropic ascent, allowing precipitation to spread over the
CWA. Models are generally trending the track of the primary low
slightly further north, as well as backing off on the idea of a
triple-point low developing off the southern New England Coast
becoming the primary feature. The result of this shift is lower
confidence in an all-snow event for the North Country...and
higher confidence in an event with multiple snow/rain
transitions.
By Tuesday night, the low moves to our east and widespread
precipitation will taper into scattered (mainly orographically-
driven) snow showers, potentially lasting through Thursday.
Temperatures will trend colder during this time-frame, dropping
to slightly below seasonal norms for the remainder of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...A weak upper level disturbance will
bring light snow to KMSS/KSLK early this morning, with periods
of 1-2SM vsby possible (mainly at KMSS). Elsewhere, generally
looking at a VFR overcast with ceilings 3000-4000ft and HIR TRRN
OBSCD. Winds will increase from the south and southwest during
the daylight hours today as pressure gradient strengthens. At
BTV, will see south winds increasing to around 12kt with gusts
18-20kts through most of the late morning and afternoon hours.
Generally looking for a period of VFR conditions areawide,
except locally MVFR cigs at KMSS/KSLK. Early indications are
that ceilings will generally become MVFR with abundant stratus
and localized 5-6SM BR during the Friday night period as low-
level flow weakens.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible.
Likely SN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...RSD
LONG TERM...RSD
AVIATION...Banacos
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