Expires:201901072100;;988374
FPUS51 KBTV 071126
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
623 AM EST Mon Jan 7 2019
VTZ006-072100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
623 AM EST Mon Jan 7 2019
.TODAY...Sunny this morning, then becoming partly sunny. Highs
around 19. Northwest winds around 10 mph this morning, becoming
light and variable.
.TONIGHT...Cloudy. A chance of snow until midnight, then snow likely
after midnight. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Lows around
12. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph, increasing to
45 mph after midnight. Chance of snow 70 percent.
.TUESDAY...Cloudy. Light snow likely in the morning, then a chance
of light snow or a slight chance of light rain in the afternoon.
Additional snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches possible. Highs
in the mid 30s. South winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph in the
morning. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Snow. Additional light snow accumulation. Lows in
the lower 30s. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow
90 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Snow. Additional light snow accumulation. Highs in the
mid 30s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow near
100 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Snow showers. Additional light snow accumulation.
Lows around 20. Chance of snow 80 percent.
.THURSDAY...Snow showers likely. Little or no additional snow
accumulation. Highs in the mid 20s. Chance of snow 70 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of flurries. Lows
around zero.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs 5 to 10 above.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Cold with lows around 10 below.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 10 above.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Cold with lows 5 below to 10 below
zero.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs around 10 above.
$$
Expires:201901071200;;988634
ASUS41 KBTV 071130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST MON JAN 07 2019
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-071200-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON FAIR 9 -1 64 N9 30.51R WCI -4
MONTPELIER FAIR 5 -4 66 NW12 30.41R WCI -11
MORRISVILLE FAIR 5 -3 69 VRB5 30.46R WCI -4
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 1 -4 79 MISG 30.42R
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 2 -7 65 W7 30.40R WCI -10
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 9 -1 61 N9G21 30.47R WCI -4
RUTLAND* FAIR 7 0 73 NW6 30.43R WCI -3
SPRINGFIELD FAIR 12 -2 53 NW8 30.40R WCI 0
HIGHGATE* FAIR -1 -4 85 CALM 30.55R
NEWPORT* FAIR 2 -6 67 CALM 30.43R
BENNINGTON FAIR 12 -2 53 N10 30.39S WCI -1
ISLAND POND* N/A 1 N/A N/A NW8 N/A WCI -12
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 1 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A -4 N/A N/A N1 N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 0 N/A N/A NW44 N/A WCI -30
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 14 7 73 NW12 N/A WCI 0
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 16 1 53 N22 N/A WCI -2
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 16 0 48 NW15G22 N/A WCI 1
$$
Expires:No;;983204
FXUS61 KBTV 070920
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
420 AM EST Mon Jan 7 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep the area dry today, but clouds will
increase in advance of the next approaching system over the
Great Lakes. Tonight, temperatures will warm as a warm front
moves through, and light snow will spread over the region
through Tuesday morning. We'll see a brief break in the
precipitation Tuesday afternoon before snow returns Tuesday
night. A cooling trend starts Wednesday, with well below normal
temperatures expected by the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 415 AM EST Monday...Today will feature relatively quiet
weather as high pressure crests to our north. The day will start
off cold after this morning's lows in the single digits, but as
the Canadian High shifts east and southerly flow commences this
afternoon, temperatures will climb into the low to mid 20s.
High clouds over the area this morning will thicken and lower
through the evening ahead of the next approaching system.
Tonight, strong warm air advection and deep isentropic ascent
ahead of low pressure over the Great Lakes will allow
precipitation, mainly in the form of light snow, to spread over
the region. Light snow will start in the evening to early
overnight hours in northern New York, then spread east into
Vermont through the night. The steadiest snow looks to fall in
the early morning hours before tapering off into light snow
showers through the late morning as drier air moves in aloft.
Total snow accumulations will be in the 1-3" range, with the
lowest amounts expected in the Champlain Valley and highest
amounts expected in higher elevations of the Adirondacks,
Greens, and Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. Accompanying the
precipitation will be a potent 65+ kt low southwesterly low-
level jet, which will quickly push in warmer air aloft and allow
temperatures to climb from the teens this evening to the 20s by
Tuesday morning. This will lead to a transition to some light
rain in northern New York and the Champlain Valley of Vermont
Tuesday morning through early afternoon before precipitation
briefly diminishes Tuesday afternoon. There is a possibility
for some light drizzle (and even some light freezing drizzle
east of the Greens) Tuesday afternoon as low-level moisture
lingers while drier air moves in aloft.
In addition to the snowfall, Monday night through Tuesday
morning will become increasingly windy as higher momentum air
moves into the low/mid levels. Portions of northern New York and
northern Vermont will see gusts up to 35 mph, while channeled
southerly flow up the Champlain Valley will lead to gusts 35 to
45 mph along and near Lake Champlain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 415 AM EST Monday...Active weather is expected Tuesday night
into Wednesday across the area...especially from the northern
Adirondacks eastward. Expect a burst of heavier precipitation to
develop toward midnight Tuesday night and especially during the
early morning hours of Wednesday. This is in response to a shortwave
trough moving into the region and strengthening frontogenetic
forcing at 850 and 700 millibars on north side of the shortwave.
This forcing pivots northward across the area during the overnight
hours and enhances the precipitation generally in a west to east
oriented band. An item of note is the temperatures Tuesday night.
Cloud cover will keep temperatures up with values in the 30s and
colder air north of the border. This will result in a rain/snow mix
for some areas...but as the stronger frontogenesis moves in dynamic
cooling will lower temperatures just enough for precipitation to be
snow. At this time could see several inches of snow across portions
of the northern Adirondacks and areas in Vermont outside the
Champlain Valley where a rain/snow mix keeps amounts down. Will have
to monitor this situation as trends in the data suggest we may
eventually need headlines with this event... especially for the
Green Mountains eastward across the remainder of Vermont. The
shortwave trough/most favorable frontogenesis shifts east on
Wednesday and low level flow turns more north and northwest. This
brings colder air into the region and has any remaining
precipitation as snow...which will be most concentrated in the
northern mountains. As a result...additional snow accumulations are
expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 415 AM EST Monday...North to northwest flow will continue
Wednesday night through Thursday night and thus looking at
additional upslope snows across the region...especially the northern
Adirondacks and the northern and central sections of Vermont. Could
definitely see several more inches in the mountains. Eventually
colder and drier air will move into the region Friday into Saturday.
Highs will only be in the single digits and teens and lows generally
in the single digits above and below zero. An upper level trough
moving across the region on Sunday should bring a chance of snow
showers to the region.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06z Tuesday...Scattered to broken low-clouds with bases
in the 2 kft to 3 kft range continue to dissipate over the
northern Adirondacks/Green Mountains. As drier air continues to
push in from the northwest, expect these to further dissipate
through the night, allowing both KSLK and KMPV MVFR ceilings to
improve to VFR by 09Z. Also seeing some MVFR clouds and light
lake-enhanced snow showers south and east of Lake Champlain,
which are reducing flight conditions at KRUT to MVFR. These
clouds could hang on through most of the night, but as day
breaks, expecting widespread VFR conditions to predominate.
High clouds will increase through the day in advance of the next
system, thickening and lowering through the evening. A warm
front will approach the forecast area from the southwest towards
the end of the TAF period, spreading light snow after 00Z.
While ceilings through 06Z are mainly expected to remain above
3kft, visibilities will be reduced after 00Z as coverage of snow
increases.
Northerly winds will decrease in intensity through the morning
hours as high pressure temporarily builds in. Winds will turn
southerly and increase in magnitude after 21Z. A 65+ low-level
jet will move over the forecast area between 00Z and 06Z, so the
potential exits for some low-level wind shear and areas of
turbulence towards to end of the TAF period.
Outlook...
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SN,
Chance RA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible.
Likely SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSD
NEAR TERM...RSD
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...RSD
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