Expires:201901012100;;685622
FPUS51 KBTV 011149
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
646 AM EST Tue Jan 1 2019
VTZ006-012100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
646 AM EST Tue Jan 1 2019
.TODAY...Cloudy. Rain showers or a chance of snow showers this
morning, then a chance of snow showers this afternoon. Total snow
accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Breezy with highs in the upper
30s. Temperature falling into the mid 20s this afternoon. West winds
15 to 20 mph, becoming northwest 15 to 25 mph this afternoon. Gusts
up to 45 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of snow showers until
midnight. Lows around zero. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph,
diminishing to around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of snow
20 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs around 14. Northwest winds around 10 mph
in the morning, becoming light and variable.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 9 above. South winds around 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the upper 20s. Southwest winds around 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow. Lows
in the lower 20s.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow. Highs in
the mid 30s.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow.
Lows in the lower 20s.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the lower 30s.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows 10 to 15.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the mid 20s.
$$
Expires:201901011200;;685039
ASUS41 KBTV 011130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST TUE JAN 01 2019
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-011200-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 42 39 89 S22G32 29.30F
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 35 34 96 S15 29.40F WCI 25
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 38 36 92 S14G20 29.32F WCI 30
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 35 35 100 MISG 29.37F
LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 33 33 98 SE5 29.38F WCI 29
MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 43 41 91 S18G24 29.37F
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 45 44 97 SW13G22 29.42R
SPRINGFIELD LGT RAIN 34 34 100 N3 29.47F
HIGHGATE* MOCLDY 43 40 89 S17G30 29.25S
NEWPORT* CLOUDY 35 34 98 S8 29.30F WCI 28
BENNINGTON LGT RAIN 51 44 77 SW10G18 29.45S
ISLAND POND* N/A 36 N/A N/A S7 N/A WCI 30
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 32 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 36 N/A N/A SW7 N/A WCI 30
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 39 N/A N/A SW54G74 N/A WCI 24
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 41 37 87 S25G41 N/A WCI 31
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 41 39 93 S33 N/A WCI 29
$$
Expires:No;;682156
FXUS61 KBTV 011017
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
517 AM EST Tue Jan 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Snow covered and locally icy travel conditions will continue
early this morning, especially along and east of the Green
Mountains in Vermont, and in the St. Lawrence Valley of far
northern New York. A strong surface low over Lake Ontario early
this morning will track northeastward along the International
Border and into Maine later today. A trailing cold front will
result in developing gusty northwesterly winds up to 35 mph
across the North Country by late this morning, along with
falling temperatures and scattered mountain snow showers through
this afternoon. High pressure building into New York and New
England in the wake of this system will bring cold temperatures
tonight and Wednesday, followed by a gradual warming trend for
the remainder of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 513 AM EST Tuesday...Quick update to discontinue the
Winter Weather Advisory across northern NY, where temperatures
have warmed well above freezing in advance of the cold front.
Also, appears downslope winds may reach 40-50 mph across
portions of eastern Rutland/Windsor counties in south-central VT
with cold frontal passage later this morning. We've decided to
post a Wind Advisory for that area through 23Z, with the peak
gusts expected around the mid-day hours. Have maintained Winter
Weather Advisories across central/ern VT for now, but we'll be
discontinuing those closer to 7am.
Previous Discussion...Have seen a combination of
snow/sleet/freezing rain east of the Greens in VT, and noted
0.10" ice accumulation at the KMSS ASOS in the past 6 hours.
Steadiest precipitation is about to shift east of the CT River
at 0630Z, but will continue to see some intermittent light mixed
precipitation thru 12Z as 993mb sfc low near Toronto, Ont.
tracks rapidly newd. Temperatures will slowly rise thru the 30s
in most areas thru 12Z...but as sfc low tracks to our north and
east, rapid nwly wind shift will bring about strong CAA for the
daylight hrs with steady to slowly falling temps. Thus, lots of
non-diurnal temp trends next 12-18hrs. Will see some scattered
light snow showers with shallow instability, especially in
orographically favored locations thru the daylight hours today.
Looking for a dusting to 2" accumulation 12-00Z across the
central and nrn Greens and Adirondacks, and potential for a
coating to 1" across much of nern VT with these snow showers
during the daylight hrs. Little or no accumulation expected
elsewhere. With the steep low-level lapse rates and strong
P-gradient, winds will becoming increasingly gusty from the W-NW
most sections from 15-23Z, with sustained winds 15-25mph and
gusts up to 35 mph at times. It appears downslope winds will be
locally higher...and may reach 40-50 mph east of the Greens in
eastern Rutland/Windsor counties in s-central VT. we've added a
Wind Advisory there through 23Z today. We've maintained the
Lake Wind Advisory on Lake Champlain thru today as well.
Will still see some low-level CAA and lingering snow flurries
early tonight, but overall trend will be for clearing and drying
conditions as sfc anticyclone settles across sern Ontario and
nrn NY after 06Z. Diminishing winds late and cold air mass
should set up several hrs with good radiative cooling late
tonight. Looking for early AM lows generally in the single
digits above zero for Wednesday, and locally zero to -10F in the
nrn Adirondacks. Wednesday will feature dry conditions and
ineffective sunshine with highs generally in the mid teens to
around 20F. PoPs NIL with high pressure remaining in control.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 258 AM EST Tuesday...As high pressure shifts off the New
England Coast Wednesday night, return southwesterly flow will
increase over the area. Low temperatures in the teens will be
reached early in the night before increasing warm air advection
allows temperatures to begin a gradual climb after midnight.
Increasing isentropic upglide and moisture advection in the
280-285 K layer along with positive vorticity advection ahead of
a dampening northern-stream upper wave will result in some light
snow showers starting overnight and lasting through the morning.
Available moisture with the system is limited, so total snow
accumulations will remain generally under an inch throughout the
forecast area. At this point, looks like the timing of the bulk
of the (meager) accumulations with the system will be in the
early morning hours of Thursday, then snow showers will taper
off through the day. Highs Thursday will be in the upper 20s to
low 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 258 AM EST Tuesday...Long term forecast starts off fairly
benign Thursday night into Friday with dry weather and
temperatures climbing back to above normal.
Attention then turns to the weekend, when the potential for some
more active weather returns. A closed upper-low over the
southern Plains will develop a surface low as it encounters
increasing baroclinicity along the northern Gulf Coast Friday
morning. The stacked low will lift northeastward Friday,
tracking off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Saturday morning. There
continues to be model discrepancies on how close the system
then tracks to the southern New England Coast Saturday, leading
to some question as to how far north the associated
precipitation will spread. Current thinking is that the
strengthening low will track near or inside of Benchmark (40N
70W), spreading precipitation as far north as southern/central
Vermont. Warm air advection will allow the mid-levels to warm
fairly rapidly as the system approaches. Surface temperatures
should initially start off sub-freezing Saturday morning before
warming to above freezing through the day. Resultant thermal
profiles could support some mixed precipitation, at least
initially, in any areas that do end up precipitating. However,
given the potential for the system to pass well to our south and
miss our forecast area all together, have held off adding any
mixed precipitation to the forecast with this package...but will
be watching the trends closely and adjust as needed over the
following days.
Sunday will trend drier but colder as high pressure builds
behind the departing coastal system.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Locally icy conditions early this
morning at KMSS/KMPV, but above freezing temps at remaining TAF
locations with wet conditions. Winds initially S/SE at 10-15kts
with gusts 20-25kts possible thru 12Z. Some LLWS possible thru
12z RUT/MSS/SLK, and included in TAFs. As sfc low tracks newd
along the intl border, winds will shift NWLY at 15-25kt with
gusts 25-35kt possible for the 14Z-23Z period today. Will see
combination of IFR/MVFR conditions in rain and mixed
precipitation thru 14Z with HIR TRRN OBSCD. Thereafter, as winds
become NW, ceilings will generally improve back to VFR except
locally MVFR at KSLK. Scattered -SHSN with occasional 3-5SM
VSBY possible for the daylight period, mainly MPV/SLK.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance
SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
Strong low pressure tracking newd along the Intl Border today
will bring strong south winds (20-30kts) thru the early morning
hours, followed by a rapid nwly wind shift around 14Z (9AM), and
winds 25-35kts from the NW through much of the daylight period
today. Wave heights will increase to 4 to 6 feet this morning
and may become increasingly choppy with the wind shift mid-late
this morning. A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for the
duration of the event, but will likely be dropped at some point
tonight/early Wednesday morning as pressure gradient and wind
speeds diminish.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for VTZ003-
004-006>008-010-012-018-019.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for VTZ012-019.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...RSD
LONG TERM...RSD
AVIATION...Banacos
MARINE...Banacos
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