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SKIVT-L  March 2019, Week 1

SKIVT-L March 2019, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 1 Mar 2019 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (229 lines)

Expires:201903012100;;693484
FPUS51 KBTV 011114
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
610 AM EST Fri Mar 1 2019


VTZ006-012100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
610 AM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

.TODAY...Sunny. Highs around 30. Light and variable winds. 
.TONIGHT...Clear until midnight, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows
around 11. Light and variable winds. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of light snow in the
morning, then a chance of light snow in the afternoon. Highs in the
lower 30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 40 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows
around 17. Light and variable winds. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 30s. Light and variable
winds. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Snow likely. Light snow accumulation possible. Lows
around 20. Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.MONDAY...Snow likely. Little or no additional snow accumulation.
Highs in the mid 20s. Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows 5 to 10 above. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs around 20. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows zero to 5 above zero. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs 15 to 20. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around zero. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs 15 to 20. 

$$


Expires:201903011200;;694197
ASUS41 KBTV 011130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI MAR 01 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-011200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR       6  -3  66 E5        30.31R WCI  -3          
MONTPELIER     FAIR      -2  -7  79 CALM      30.29S                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      -7 -10  87 CALM      30.31R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     -4  -9  79 MISG      30.31R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      -4  -9  79 CALM      30.27R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR       5   0  80 CALM      30.31R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR       6   1  80 SE6       30.29R WCI  -4          
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR       3   0  87 CALM      30.33R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR       3  -4  73 E3        30.33R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      -7 -11  81 SW6       30.28S WCI -20          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    13   6  74 CALM      30.28R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A    -18 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     -9 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     -9 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      7 N/A N/A NW20        N/A  WCI -13          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A      9   3  78 S6          N/A  WCI  -1          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     10   7  85 N3          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A      7   3  85 SE2         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;693244
FXUS61 KBTV 011110
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
610 AM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring dry and seasonable weather to the area
through tonight. Chances for light snow increase by later 
Saturday and again by Sunday night as low pressure affects the 
region. Colder temperatures follows the second system for much 
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 610 AM EST Friday...Minor adjustments to sky cover as of 
600 am to show less high clouds north this morning. Otherwise 
going forecast remains on track. Have a great day.

Prior discussion....
Quiet weather on track for today/tonight as surface high 
pressure remains bridged atop the area. Expect occasional 
passing high clouds, light winds and nil pops. High temperatures
will moderate nicely, topping out from 28 to 34 degrees. For 
tonight seasonal lows from 8 to 18 above are expected with some 
customary variability.

On Saturday low pressure will pass offshore south of the New England 
coast while an unphased northern stream shortwave trough approaches 
from the west. This latter feature will bring increasing chances of 
light snow or flurries to the region by the afternoon hours, 
especially across the western half of the forecast area. High 
temperatures remain seasonable - mainly lower to mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 329 AM EST Friday...A northern stream shortwave will be 
pushing through the region overnight bringing light snow to the 
North Country. Should be a high chance for snow but low totals 
event with most of the area seeing between a half inch to two 
inches. Snow will be tapering off during the morning with 
perhaps some linger snow in Champlain valley as the flow will be
blocked with some low level RH.

Sunday morning the forecast turns dry as high pressure builds 
in briefly. With little in the way of low level moisture we may 
see some breaks in the cloud cover early but expect clouds to 
increase and thicken heading into the afternoon.

Heading into Sunday evening/Monday a low pressure system will 
eject out of the deep south towards the Carolinas. The system 
then tracks northeast offshore from New England. The medium 
ranged models have pretty much held consistent in differing 
approaches to the low track with the EC further north and west 
while the GFS runs the surface low outside benchmark. The GFS 
ensemble low tracks appear under dispersive and with it being 
the extreme southern outlier I've offered more of a blend of the
EC/GEM as the forecast. This runs a deepening coastal low just 
inside of the 40N/70W benchmark but with a strong NW/SE moisture
gradient. So portions of southern Vermont including 
Rutland/Windsor/Orange could see headlines for snowfall with 
significantly lessening amounts as you move further north and 
west across the North Country.

The upper level support is displaced too far away as the system
never phases and without any blocking element I still believe 
were not looking at at any sort of blockbuster event. The low is
fairly progressive and pushes quickly out of the region so I 
really only anticipate a 12-18 hour snow event.

Heading into Monday night the we'll stay under cyclonic flow 
but colder air starts to move into the region and some lake 
effect snow will develop in northern New York.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 329 AM EST Friday...The extended can be easily 
characterized as just cold. We'll be well below normal for much 
of the week with a modified arctic airmass settling over the 
region. We'll see sub 505dm 1000-500mb thickness from Tuesday 
through Thursday afternoon with Wednesday dropping to 495dm. 
This along with sub -20C 850mb temps will lead to highs in the 
teens to low 20s Tuesday though Thursday and the potential for 
some seriously cold evenings if there are some breaks in cloud 
cover over the Northeast Kingdom or the Adirondacks.

With the cyclonic flow aloft and a couple of weak embedded 
shortwaves we could see some waves of light snow track through 
the region but at this time pinpointing any of those details is 
nearly impossible. I've got the idea of a slight chance for 
snow daily in the forecast but the coverage will be isolated to
scattered and we may see some dry days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 
Through 12Z Saturday...VFR conditions are expected through the 
period with mainly SKC through 06Z Saturday as high pressure
sits atop the area. Thereafter mid level cigs from 050-100 AGL 
will push northward into the area as this high slides eastward.
Winds light and less than 10 kts over the next 24 hours with no
precipitation expected.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Chance SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible.
Likely SN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...JMG

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
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July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
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February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
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January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 2
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October 2006, Week 5
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August 2006, Week 5
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October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 2
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
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March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
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February 2005, Week 1
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January 2005, Week 3
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January 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 4
October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 3
September 2004, Week 2
September 2004, Week 1
August 2004, Week 5
August 2004, Week 4
August 2004, Week 3
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July 2004, Week 5
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July 2004, Week 3
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July 2004, Week 1
June 2004, Week 5
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February 2004, Week 1
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January 2004, Week 4
January 2004, Week 3
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January 2004, Week 1
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November 2003, Week 3
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November 2003, Week 1
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October 2002, Week 2
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
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December 2001, Week 4
December 2001, Week 3
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