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SKIVT-L  March 2019, Week 1

SKIVT-L March 2019, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 2 Mar 2019 06:50:03 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (226 lines)

Expires:201903022100;;735574
FPUS51 KBTV 020806
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
303 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019


VTZ006-022100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
303 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

.TODAY...Partly sunny this morning, then mostly cloudy with a slight
chance of snow this afternoon. Highs in the lower 30s. Light and
variable winds. Chance of snow 20 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Cloudy. A chance of snow, mainly until midnight. Lows
around 17. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 50 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. A chance of snow in the afternoon. Highs in
the upper 20s. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 30 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Snow likely. Light snow accumulation possible. Lows
around 20. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.MONDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs in the mid
20s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows 5 to 10 above. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs around 20. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows zero to 5 above zero. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs 15 to 20. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around zero. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs 15 to 20. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around zero. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 20s. 

$$


Expires:201903021200;;744271
ASUS41 KBTV 021130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SAT MAR 02 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-021200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    19  11  70 NW6       30.15F WCI  11          
MONTPELIER     FAIR      12   9  87 CALM      30.15S                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      10   7  87 CALM      30.15F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A      9   5  84 MISG      30.15F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      12   5  74 CALM      30.13F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      19  14  82 CALM      30.12F                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    21  16  81 E5        30.10F WCI  15          
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    17  15  92 CALM      30.13F                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      13   9  82 CALM      30.17S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR       8   5  86 CALM      30.15F                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    28  19  69 CALM      30.07F                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A      1 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A      7 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     18 N/A N/A NE1         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     18  14  86 N1          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     21  14  73 N9          N/A  WCI  11          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     25  16  68 N12         N/A  WCI  14          

$$


Expires:No;;737223
FXUS61 KBTV 020849
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
349 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Near normal temperatures are expected today as an upper level 
system swings through. Light snow should develop with a dusting 
to two inches possible late in the afternoon towards the 
evening. A coastal system will develop and bring snow to much of
New England Sunday night into Monday. The highest chance for 
significant snow will be across south-central Vermont with the 
possibility that less than an inch falls across the Saint 
Lawrence Valley in Northern New York. Behind that system high 
pressure and a modified arctic airmass will bring well below 
normal temperatures back to the North Country for much of next 
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 312 AM EST Saturday...A deepening coastal low pressure 
system well outside benchmark is pushing some high level cirrus 
clouds across the North Country and has limited our radiational 
cooling overnight. Temps will likely continue to fall just not 
at the rate initially forecast. Think we'll see lows in the mid 
to upper teens for valley locations with single digits in our 
typical cold hollows.

We'll see quiet weather to start the day with temps warming to 
near normal in the 30s. As the coastal low clears New England an
unphased upper level trough will swing through and there should
be enough lift associated with it, to see light snow fall 
across the North Country. Currently thinking we'll see up to two
inches of snow falling generally in the late afternoon through 
the overnight hours.

High pressure builds in for Sunday ahead of a more potent 
system. We should see breaks in the cloud cover early in the 
morning Sunday and temps should warm into the mid 30s. It should
be a pleasant day across the region with light southwest winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 312 AM EST Saturday...Sunday evening we'll see a low 
pressure system will eject out of the deep south towards the 
Carolinas. The guidance has held remarkably consistent in the 
differences between models. Given we're now getting into the 
range of some of the higher res guidance and most of those 
tracks favor more of a GFS/CMC blend I've trended slightly away 
from the EC. Looking at the probabilistic guidance this brings 
our forecast more in line with the 50th percentile of solutions.
Generally expect 2-4 inches of snow from the Adirondacks 
through central Vermont with southeastern VT seeing 4-7 inches. 
With the nature of the system being open rather than closed at 
700mb or 500mb, and being a fairly progressive system I feel 
more confident that our window of light to moderate snow will
be a relatively short. Based on the track forecast and the mid 
level RH I think there's probably going to be a sharp gradient 
in the snow totals somewhere across the forecast area but I just
dont have a great feeling for where that will end up. I agree 
with the dayshift yesterday that we'll see a strong 850mb fgen 
band set up over the coastal plain of New England while the 
700mb fgen pivots a little further inland. The 00z NAM shows the
band lift into southern Vermont which is why I've maintained 
some higher totals and its certainly possible that we could over
perform the current forecast if the band actually develops. But
the trouble is, that this far out those bands are difficult to 
predict. Over the next 24 hours we should start to feel better 
about the actual low track as the models will start to sample 
the disturbance that will develop into the coastal low. We'll 
certainly continue to monitor for changes and see how the system
unfolds.

Heading into Monday night the we'll stay under cyclonic flow 
but colder air starts to move into the region and we'll start to
see some lake effect snow develop in northern New York.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 312 AM EST Saturday...The long term continues to feature 
rather cold and quiet weather. Large upper level trough will be 
over the region from Monday night through Thursday night and 850
temps will be in the negative 20s. This will result in maximum 
temperatures in the teens and minimum temperatures in the single
digits above and below zero. Will have some clouds to keep 
temperatures from bottoming out too much during the overnights, 
and also some winds since the high will not crest overhead. 
Shortwave energy crossing the region Tuesday into Wednesday will
bring some light mountain snow showers. Upper trough will 
finally lift out of the region headed into the end of the week 
and will see some snow showers reaching our southern zones 
Friday night into Saturday with a low passing well south of us.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions and light winds will 
persist through much of the afternoon. An upper level 
disturbance will push across the region this afternoon through 
early Sunday morning with the potential for some scattered snow 
showers. This will bring ceilings down to 2000 to 3000 ft late 
Saturday afternoon across northern New York but it looks like 
Vermont terminals will stay VFR through 00z. Thereafter,
ceilings will drop below 2000 ft areawide. 

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN, Chance
SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles

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