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SKIVT-L  March 2019, Week 1

SKIVT-L March 2019, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 4 Mar 2019 06:50:03 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (215 lines)

Expires:201903042100;;847734
FPUS51 KBTV 041120
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
617 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019


VTZ006-042100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
617 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow, mainly this morning. Highs
in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow
40 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow showers.
Lows around 3 above. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
25 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a
chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Highs around 20. West winds
around 10 mph. Chance of snow 50 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 7 above. Light and variable winds. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs around 16. West winds 10 to 15 mph
with gusts up to 25 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Cold with lows around zero. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs 15 to 20. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows zero to 5 above zero. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 20s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 10 above. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 30. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 10 above. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs in
the mid 30s. 

$$


Expires:201903041200;;848161
ASUS41 KBTV 041130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST MON MAR 04 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-041200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    24  21  88 N6        29.81F WCI  17          
MONTPELIER     LGT SNOW  25  25 100 NW5       29.76F FOG     WCI  19  
MORRISVILLE    LGT SNOW  24  22  91 NE5       29.77F FOG     WCI  18  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     26  25  96 MISG      29.74F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT SNOW  24  24  96 CALM      29.74F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FLURRIES  24  23  93 N5        29.77F WCI  18          
RUTLAND*       LGT SNOW  27  26  96 NW7       29.73F FOG     WCI  19  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    29  26  89 N3        29.71F                  
HIGHGATE*      LGT SNOW  23  22  97 CALM      29.83F                  
NEWPORT*       LGT SNOW  22  22  98 N6        29.76F WCI  15          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    29  25  85 VRB3      29.70F                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     23 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     21 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     23 N/A N/A NE1         N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     18 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     23  23 100 N1          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     25  25 100 N9          N/A  WCI  15          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     27  25  93 NW17        N/A  WCI  14          

$$


Expires:No;;839116
FXUS61 KBTV 040808
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
308 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread light snow continues to fall across the North Country but
will begin to taper off by morning. Snow totals for the morning
commute should range from less than an inch from the Champlain Valley
west and 2 to 4 inches across portions of central and southern Vermont.
A modified arctic airmass will move into the North Country Tuesday
bringing well below normal temperatures and the potential for some
scattered snow showers through the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 304 AM EST Monday...Light to moderate snows continue 
through the morning hours but the precip shield is rapidly 
declining as the coastal low goes under cyclogenesis. IR 
satellite shows the only areas that have a deep cloud layer 
across the North Country are central and southern Vermont. So 
we've probably got another 2 to 3 hours of snow fall to come but
based on some of the latest 00z hires guidance that may even be
optimistic. The 00z NAMnest pulls all of the RH and moisture 
out by 10z with most of the area drying out by sunrise. The 
biggest item of note is that the system is cranking to the north
and east and so that tends to make me feel a little better in 
the NAMnest's quick end.

Heading into the day today we should see strong cold air 
advection pushing in with -20C 850mb temps moving into Saint 
Lawrence county by the end of the day. This should keep our lows
on the cooler side of normal with highs in the upper 20s to 
near 30. The cold continues to push in overnight as higher 
pressure starts to nose in from the west. The temps overnight 
Monday will be a tricky forecast as we're likely to stay under 
light southwest flow until just before daybreak and when that 
happens I expect temps to drop pretty strongly. So min temps 
should fall into the single digits with teens near Lake 
Champlain, but that likely wont happen until an hour or two 
before sunrise.

Heading into Monday night/Tuesday with the cold air at 
850-700mb, lake effect snow should begin east of Lake Ontario. 
Boundary layer flow initially starts out westerly but will 
become southwesterly by mid day lifting the band north across 
portions of the Saint Lawrence county. In the afternoon the band
waffles a bit north and south leading to some disorganization 
and so scattered lake enhanced showers should develop across 
Northern New York under a northern stream shortwave. Expect 
Tuesday's temps to be quite chilly relative to normal with highs
only in the teens to near 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 AM EST Monday...Snow showers will be coming to an end
overnight as dynamics and areal coverage of better relative
humidities decreases. Snow shower activity will become more terrain
focused before ending. Large cold upper level trough will remain
over the North Country on Wednesday, therefore the below normal
temperature trend continues. After low temperatures in the single
digits Tuesday night, high temperatures on Wednesday will barely
make it out of the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 AM EST Monday...Quiet weather will be the main story for
the extended portion of the forecast, starting out with below normal
temperatures but moderating towards the end of the period headed
into the weekend. Large upper level ridge over the region will keep
us dry through Friday. A weak system passes to our south Friday
night into Saturday, but our forecast area will remain dry on the
periphery of it. Dry weather continues through early Sunday with a
surface ridge over the area, then next system will approach for
Sunday and continuing into Monday. GFS and ECMWF continue to be
fairly in line with handling this large scale low pressure system
passing from the Great Lakes area then to our Northwest. Much too
early to nail down a precipitation type at this time, though we
could see a bit of everything.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...A mix of MVFR/IFR will continue through 
the overnight hours as a coastal low will begin to pull off to 
the north and east of the region. IFR will be most prominent at
MPV/RUT in periods of light to moderate snow. Visibilities 
should begin to lift between 8-10z and by 12z the snow should be
coming to an end. Expect lowered MVFR ceilings to hold on until
15z before improving to VFR by mid day. Lake in the TAF period 
clouds will increase and drop down to MVFR again at SLK where 
some lake effect snow showers may impact flight operations.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Deal

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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