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SKIVT-L  March 2019, Week 3

SKIVT-L March 2019, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 16 Mar 2019 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (260 lines)

Expires:201903162000;;451820
FPUS51 KBTV 160802
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
359 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019


VTZ006-162000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
359 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...Cloudy. A slight chance of snow showers this morning, then
a chance of snow or rain showers this afternoon. Highs in the mid
30s. West winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of
precipitation 40 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Lows around 16. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
25 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of snow showers in the
morning. Highs in the upper 20s. West winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of
snow 20 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 14. West winds around
10 mph. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s. Northwest winds
around 10 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 10 above. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows around 10 above. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 40. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows in the mid 20s. 
.THURSDAY...Cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers. Highs in
the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a chance of snow or rain showers. Lows
in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of snow showers. Highs in the
upper 30s. Chance of snow 40 percent. 

$$


Expires:201903161100;;457640
ASUS41 KBTV 161030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT MAR 16 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-161100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    40  30  67 W10       29.69R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    38  29  70 W8        29.68R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    39  29  67 SW8G20    29.65S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     41  29  62 MISG      29.63R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    38  28  67 SW10      29.64S WCI  31          
MIDDLEBURY*    DRIZZLE   38  31  74 SW7G24    29.72R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    39  30  70 W9G17     29.73R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    41  28  60 W10       29.71R                  
HIGHGATE*        N/A    N/A N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    37  29  71 W12G23    29.63S WCI  30          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    40  27  59 W16G29    29.77R WCI  31          
ISLAND POND*     N/A     37 N/A N/A W10         N/A  WCI  30          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     37 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     36 N/A N/A SW5         N/A  WCI  32          
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     28 N/A N/A W36         N/A  WCI  12          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     39  32  75 SW18G38     N/A  WCI  30          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     39  32  75 W17G25      N/A  WCI  30          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     39  32  75 S7          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;452923
FXUS61 KBTV 160822
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
422 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
After the mild temperatures observed the last few days, a
cooling trend can be expected through the weekend. There will be
some lingering snow showers during the day today, but these will
diminish by Sunday, giving way to a dry but cold end to the
weekend. The start of next week will feature continued below-
normal temperatures, with mainly dry weather. Temperatures start
to rise mid-week, along with increasing precipitation chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 414 AM EDT Saturday...A Flood Watch remains in effect for 
most of the forecast area through this evening after temperatures
rose into the 50s Thursday and Friday. These mild temperatures 
have led to rapid loss of snowmelt, particularly in valley 
locations, which has subsequently led to rises in river levels 
throughout the region. River gauges reported rises generally 
between 1 and 3 feet through the day Friday, before generally 
cresting overnight. So far, while this has led to a few rivers 
rising into action stage, there has been no reported impacts 
from flooding. However, given the ice thicknesses of generally a
foot or a foot and a half, there remains the potential for is 
isolated ice jam. Thus have kept the flood watch in effect. See 
hydro discussion for more details.

An upper-level shortwave moving through the region overnight has 
provided some brief enhanced ascent to support some scattered 
snow showers. These showers have mainly been over northern New 
York and over higher terrain of the Green Mountains in Vermont. 
The lower atmosphere will remain fairly unstable through the day
today in response to continuing cold air advection, so expect 
scattered light snow showers to continue through the day. A lack
of deep moisture will limit overall snow amounts, but higher 
peaks of the northern Green Mountains and the northwestern 
slopes of the northern Adirondacks will pick up between 1 and 4 
inches through Sunday morning. Lower elevations including the 
Saint Lawrence Valley and Champlain Valley, along with southern 
and eastern Vermont, will only see a dusting up to an inch. 

A well-mixed PBL extending to between 800 and 850mb throughout 
the day today will allow for the continuation of some gusty 
westerly winds. The strongest gusts, between 15 and 25 mph, will 
be observed in the morning hours today, then diminish some 
going into the afternoon as the low-level jet weakens and 
departs to the east. Highs today will be in the 30s. 

Temperatures tonight will be noticeably colder than the previous
few nights, returning to the teens/low 20s by dawn Sunday
morning. Subtle height rises and negative moisture advection
during the day Sunday will keep conditions drier than Saturday.
However, temperatures Sunday will return to below normal, with
highs expected to be in the upper 20s to low 30s. Some brisk
west winds can be expected , especially during the afternoon
hours, which will keep wind chills in the teens to low 20s. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 414 AM EDT Saturday...A upper level short wave trof providing
some weak lift will move through the region from the northwest
Sunday night. There is little moisture to work with but weak some
cold advection and upslope flow may squeeze out some flurries or
light snow showers with little accumulation mainly in the mountains.
Lows by Monday morning will range from the upper single digits in
the cold spots to the teens in the valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 414 AM EDT Saturday...The long term is dominated by a mean
upper-level long wave trof in eastern north America with periodic
short wave trofs and ridges moving through it.

The weak surface and upper level short wave trof will move out on
Monday but there may be a lingering flurry or snow shower on Monday
with cold advection and partly sunny skies.

High pressure will move over the eastern CONUS Tue-Wed bringing cold
and dry weather and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.

The next weather system comes Thu-Fri as the upper level trof
sharpens and deepens over the Northeast ahead of which will be a
slight warm up on Thursday with a chance of snow and showers and a
bit breezy conditions. EC/GFS in agreement that a cold front will
follow with any rain showers changing to snow showers with some
pretty chilly air expected on brisk northerly winds by Friday.
Temperatures start the period on the seasonably cool side with highs
in the upper 20s to lower 30s Monday and Tuesday, then moderate Wed-
Thu when highs top out from from the upper 30s to mid 40s but
cooling during Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions expected to prevail for
Vermont and the Champlain Valley of New York, while KMSS and
KSLK in New York will continue to experience MVFR/IFR ceilings
and visibilities with some snow showers. Expecting some 
improvement at KMSS to primarily MVFR conditions through 12Z as 
snow showers diminish. KSLK however will see steadier snow 
showers continuing through the night resulting in continued reduced
visibilities. Southwest winds will remain 10-15 kt overnight 
with gusts up to 25 knots across northern New York, turning more
westerly on Saturday with gusts up to 25-30 knots expected 
across the area.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Watch remains in effect until 8 pm today for the entire 
forecast area except Grand Isle County VT. Temperatures rising 
well into the 50s over the last couple of days has led to rapid 
snowmelt and subsequent river rises between 1 and 3 feet. While 
rivers have generally crested overnight, temperatures will 
remain above freezing for much of the area through this 
afternoon. Thus, while the greatest threat is over, additional 
rises on river are still possible. This leads to a continued 
threat for isolated ice jams today. So far, only one ice jam has
been reported, which was along the Mad River at Moretown. This 
caused the river to very briefly crest to minor flood stage 
around midnight this morning, but since then the river has been 
receding. We will continue to monitor this and other area 
rivers for ice jams. 

Remember that river levels can change suddenly during the
breakup of river ice. Any observed flooding affecting roadways
should be reported to local law enforcement.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Flood Watch through this evening for VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...Flood Watch through this evening for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSD
NEAR TERM...RSD
SHORT TERM...Sisson
LONG TERM...Sisson
AVIATION...RSD
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV

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